Why would you even ask this question? What do you gain from the answer?
Where did the "90% are losers myth come from?
- Thread starter human151
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Why would you even ask this question? What do you gain from the answer?
well I am new to trading and found this site. I read the forums and say that figure tossed around more than once. I just wanted to see if anyone could tell me if it was backed up by fact.
Reading all these responses though is a bit upsetting. heres like one or two positive responses and the rest are negative.
SO if I were to believe all these negative people, there is a 10% chance of winning and a 90% chance of losing. I must ask, why do people trade? Lets take roullette as an analogy. if you bet on red then you have about 45% chance of winning. Are all you naysayers telling me that I have a better chance making money playing roullette then making educated choices when trading?
Reading all these responses though is a bit upsetting. heres like one or two positive responses and the rest are negative.
SO if I were to believe all these negative people, there is a 10% chance of winning and a 90% chance of losing. I must ask, why do people trade? Lets take roullette as an analogy. if you bet on red then you have about 45% chance of winning. Are all you naysayers telling me that I have a better chance making money playing roullette then making educated choices when trading?
"Why do people go to las vegas?"
people go to las vegas to ralax, have fun and gamble and hopefully win money at a game of chance. Well Ive read a few books, taken a few classes and I know trading/investing is not a game of chance.
I just want to say this, I expected more out of this community. Seems we have a bunch of grumpy, immature, negative minded people here.
Yeah, im new here and dint want to go adversarial but there is way too much negativity here.
NOTE: The people who gave meaningful responses can disregard.
people go to las vegas to ralax, have fun and gamble and hopefully win money at a game of chance. Well Ive read a few books, taken a few classes and I know trading/investing is not a game of chance.
I just want to say this, I expected more out of this community. Seems we have a bunch of grumpy, immature, negative minded people here.
Yeah, im new here and dint want to go adversarial but there is way too much negativity here.
NOTE: The people who gave meaningful responses can disregard.
90% never make it to profitability. The reasons are varied. Get over it... try trading and you will learn ALL the reasons eventually, that is about the only certainty there is in trading...
Regarding the quality of answers you are getting, there might be fifty active and successful traders on ET, who knows really? I have upwards of 250 posters on my ignore list if that tells you anything about the makeup of ET, where you are asking your question. I just added Sushi who, once again, is contributing only FUD. FUD is Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.. I don't thrive on that shit at all. Some just make assertions, usually negative in nature and get in pissing contests rather than provide some reasoning.. I can't believe they are good traders, they go to the ignore list quicker than the FUD people because they are very easy to single out... some just don't trade but are here to make traders miserable even... they usually are in the assertion mode in the most vicious manner possible.. the place is a looney bin where occasionally a doctor that actually knows something comes in and talks for a minute or two...
Regarding the quality of answers you are getting, there might be fifty active and successful traders on ET, who knows really? I have upwards of 250 posters on my ignore list if that tells you anything about the makeup of ET, where you are asking your question. I just added Sushi who, once again, is contributing only FUD. FUD is Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.. I don't thrive on that shit at all. Some just make assertions, usually negative in nature and get in pissing contests rather than provide some reasoning.. I can't believe they are good traders, they go to the ignore list quicker than the FUD people because they are very easy to single out... some just don't trade but are here to make traders miserable even... they usually are in the assertion mode in the most vicious manner possible.. the place is a looney bin where occasionally a doctor that actually knows something comes in and talks for a minute or two...
There are other forums with more positive and friendly people. Not every place is like ET
If you proved to me that 9 out of 10 lost in the market I would care just as much as if you proved to me that 9 out of 10 win in the market. I don't trade because of what other people do. I don't care if they're smarter than me or not.
What I do care about is generating a yield that exceeds what I could get in the money market (practically nothing these days) and not the results of investing in a buy and hold strategy (turning a 401k plan into a 201k plan ). Oh yeh... occasionally a Black Swan event occurs (a coupla times a century) and you have the investing year of your life and 2% money market yields don't bother you anymore.
Trading is aboiut you and YOUR life.
That statistic makes sense if you count everyone who has ever tried to day trade.
However a large majority of "day traders" blow their account within a couple weeks to a month and that is that. They may take a break and go at it again doing the exact same thing with the exact same results.
If you want to be a successful trader then you have to be able to somewhat turn yourself into a monomaniac.
If you decide to truly study the market for yourself without anticipated profits after a few months then you will vastly increase your chances.
If you have the ability of freeing up your schedule for at least six months while trading zero money then again you will vastly increase your chances.
If you have the ability of letting yourself and others suffer through periods of failure then you will vastly increase your chances.
It's all about the opportunity cost.
I think it is because the statement gets taken out of context.
I believe that 90% of traders lose money AT FIRST.
Almost every real trader I have ever heard honestly tell their story talks about (at first) underestimating how much time and effort (AND MONEY) it takes to learn real trading and also to develop discipline.
A substantial portion of them (at least 1/3) go on to eventually become profitable, with or without blowing up a few more accounts along the way.
Another 1/3 were just "get rich quick" gambling types that are not willing to put in a PHD's worth of time/money to learn the art. Or else they get a taste of their bad trading and decide they don't like trading at all. They quit after losing all their money. They also quit poker, several careers and running their own businesses because again, they don't have the fortitude and attitude to persevere at anything until they make it.
The last 1/3 are still trying to make it, mostly chasing holy grail indicators or methods that are a poor excuse for really understanding supply/demand (support/resistance). Some of them will give up eventually and and some will eventually get it.
I can't prove any of this with empirical evidence, but it seems a fairly close cross-section of the small-trader community, right?