Where did the "90% are losers myth come from?

[asiaprop]

but it comes close ;-)

While I dont think 99% blow up I think the failure rate is definitely >90% for all retail traders (not investors, and not willing to split hairs over the definition).

Your proof of "many traders have withdrawn profits above their initial investments over time so they by definition are up" means nothing. How many? Out of how many others? Numbers?

The average "post IQ" should definitely push things close to 90% if not above.

Quote from Euler:

Turns out I know what that is, and that it has nothing to do with my statement or the fact that it decisively disproves yours.

 

[asiaprop]

how educated? Where is your edge? I think someone should tell you the hard facts of life, here it goes:

Develop a "defined edge" before you commit any capital at all. If you dont find one there is no shame in walking away from the table without having touched a thing. But the whole thread and your question is kind of meaningless as an earlier poster remarked.

The point is if you have an edge (be it a strategy coupled with your superior discipline and risk management) then you belong to the 10% +-X to whom the sky is the limit. For those its very similar than professional athletes. You may to the top 10% performer in a given sport among the general population but whether you make it then to the absolute top is an entirely different question. But that aside...

...if you just jump into this game as most idiots here do then....well then you simply belong to the 90% or so losing money either in 1-3 month or you bleed it over time. Dont let any brokers or wanna-be tell you otherwise.

There is not much more to add because its really that simple -> Have an edge you win, if you dont you lose. Whats so hard to grasp actually?

Quote from human151:

well I am new to trading and found this site. I read the forums and say that figure tossed around more than once. I just wanted to see if anyone could tell me if it was backed up by fact.

Reading all these responses though is a bit upsetting. heres like one or two positive responses and the rest are negative.

SO if I were to believe all these negative people, there is a 10% chance of winning and a 90% chance of losing. I must ask, why do people trade? Lets take roullette as an analogy. if you bet on red then you have about 45% chance of winning. Are all you naysayers telling me that I have a better chance making money playing roullette then making educated choices when trading?

 

[asiaprop]

so the "bucketshop" argument now supports the numbers you refuted earlier? Hmm...interesting ;-)

Quote from Euler:

Thanks for your sharing your experiences, milktruck. Very interesting, yet depressing. I wish everyone considering opening a bucket forex account would read this first.

 

[Euler]

Quote from asiaprop:

but it comes close ;-)

Your proof of "many traders have withdrawn profits above their initial investments over time so they by definition are up" means nothing. How many? Out of how many others? Numbers?

Actually,

many traders have withdrawn profits above their initial investments over time so they by definition are up

does refute Sushi's "fact", which was that 100% of traders lose money overall in the long term.

But I forgive you for not wanting to read through all of Sushi's trolling posts (assuming, that is, you are not an alias for Sushi)

I was not disputing that 90% or 95% or even higher fail in equities (and I can certainly believe that 99% fail in non-centrally-cleared Forex, where the brokerage sets the prices on a closed market).

But I do dispute 100%, across all markets, as absurd. You and I are not the only two guys in the world who are profitable traders -- assuming, that is, that you are profitable, too

 

[xxxskier]

most lose money over time, a few break even over time, and the very few that are profitable over time take the money from the majority. and the very few profitable generally make outsized profits due to the many (majority losers) fish they feed off of.

alls' fair in love, war, and trading.





welcome to the jungle.

 

[Big Money]

Human151,

You haven't offended me at all. Actually, it is no pleasure at all trying to help someone who just isn’t getting it (and you are far from alone). I thought maybe shock and awe and the hard truth might get through to you. But as is the usual response from most newbies, the truth isn’t as important to you as trying to reinforce your own idea of what trading is. The path to successful trading is littered with people who didn't want to face reality and lost a lot or all of their money before facing this reality. You have had 11 pages of people trying to tell you the same thing but you aren’t listening. And as far as I am concerned, I took it easy on you. If you think this is abuse, wait until you go on a sit (and start trading).

If berating me makes you feel better, fine. You can’t reason with those who have unreasonable expectations. I am not your friend. I am your competition. If you prefer to believe that this endeavor “has to be easier” than the numbers indicate, again, be my guest. But when someone clubs you over the head with a baby seal while simultaneously taking all your money, don’t say you weren’t warned, again. If you thought the trading community would welcome you with open arms and open their wallets to makes things easier for you, then I am sorry to again break the truth to you.

A newbie who wanders into trading without proper preparation with a real plan, an edge of some kind and some discipline is as helpless and hopeless to survive as a baby wildebeest wandering the African safari alone. Nothing makes the lion happier than completely unprotected prey. Which do you think you are in this scenario?

My mistake for trying to be straight with you. Some day you will realize we are trying to help you (maybe). As the saying goes, “It is not show friends, it is show business.” My business is to take your money as quickly and easily as possible. And yours is to try to take mine. Believe me when I say the collective will welcome you with open arms to the trading world. Make no mistake; you are in the fight of your life. Ignore this at your own risk.



Best of luck

BM

 

[Rabbitone]

Quote from Big Money:

Human151,

You haven't offended me at all. Actually, it is no pleasure at all trying to help someone who just isn’t getting it (and you are far from alone). I thought maybe shock and awe and the hard truth might get through to you. But as is the usual response from most newbies, the truth isn’t as important to you as trying to reinforce your own idea of what trading is. The path to successful trading is littered with people who didn't want to face reality and lost a lot or all of their money before facing this reality. You have had 11 pages of people trying to tell you the same thing but you aren’t listening. And as far as I am concerned, I took it easy on you. If you think this is abuse, wait until you go on a sit (and start trading).

If berating me makes you feel better, fine. You can’t reason with those who have unreasonable expectations. I am not your friend. I am your competition. If you prefer to believe that this endeavor “has to be easier” than the numbers indicate, again, be my guest. But when someone clubs you over the head with a baby seal while simultaneously taking all your money, don’t say you weren’t warned, again. If you thought the trading community would welcome you with open arms and open their wallets to makes things easier for you, then I am sorry to again break the truth to you.

A newbie who wanders into trading without proper preparation with a real plan, an edge of some kind and some discipline is as helpless and hopeless to survive as a baby wildebeest wandering the African safari alone. Nothing makes the lion happier than completely unprotected prey. Which do you think you are in this scenario?

My mistake for trying to be straight with you. Some day you will realize we are trying to help you (maybe). As the saying goes, “It is not show friends, it is show business.” My business is to take your money as quickly and easily as possible. And yours is to try to take mine. Believe me when I say the collective will welcome you with open arms to the trading world. Make no mistake; you are in the fight of your life. Ignore this at your own risk.



Best of luck

BM

You have excellent communication skills. I enjoy reading your thoughts…

Here are my thoughts…

Full time traders are akin to professional sports players. Take as an example a professional football player. Professional football players do not “appear” on the pro-team over-night. These players like full time traders have suffered through years of set backs and rejections on their road to success.

The path to learning trading success is often littered with busted accounts. Like the football player we have to learn our “drills” to take on any opponent in the market. However a new opponent we have not seen before comes along and he has us quickly on the turf with a mild concussion. Before our heads recover from the knock out blow our account is drained (adding to the 90% failure rate).

These set backs don’t stop those that have faith in themselves. We have faith that our methods are sound. So we go back and revise our trading business plan and start over. And many times another opponent with a different game plan causes the same result. But by now these set backs are less frequent because the trader has mastered their “drills” and is prepared for disaster recovery.

Those traders that preserve through this process try to tell neophytes what is in store for them and what will happen. But most “newbies” do not want to listen; so, new traders today scream when they pay the price of admission. Where old traders like myself recover some of the price I have paid over the years.

 

[mdl060374]

Quote from xxxskier:

most lose money over time, a few break even over time, and the very few that are profitable over time take the money from the majority. and the very few profitable generally make outsized profits due to the many (majority losers) fish they feed off of.
.

I think this is somewhat true, but usually overstated.. There seems to be this "If your on the opposite side of my trade, either you win or I win."

THis is false. Both could be winners all depending on the style and timeframe of the trades being taken.. Its not always I win-you lose..

 

[eagle]

Even your friend isn't really friendly until one day you finally know his deep heart about you.

Short story:

One day, my cousin with his close friend met an another guy whom a friend of my cousin. As usual, my cousin introduced the guy to his close friend. Later, his close friend said to my cousin "You consider this type as your friend, what are you fucking thinking about". Turned out that the close friend was right.

Quote from Big Money:

Human151,

I am not your friend. I am your competition.

 

[xxxskier]

Quote from mdl060374:

I think this is somewhat true, but usually overstated.. There seems to be this "If your on the opposite side of my trade, either you win or I win."

THis is false. Both could be winners all depending on the style and timeframe of the trades being taken.. Its not always I win-you lose..

i steer away from that whole debate. you might be right, and you might be right. doesn't make me any money to obsess about that kind of stuff. i was just pointing out that most lose. simple fact.