As a diversifier I run a couple of trading systems with a small portion of my capital. I have a slight problem in that occasionally I feel a strong urge to override them because I see they are about to do something I think is wrong. Usually it is when I see them going one way when I have a strong conviction that the market is going the other.
So far I've tried leaving them alone, and tried overriding them. When I have a strong view and don't override them, I usually regret it. For example in May 08 I got system buy signals in stocks, I overrode it because I was ultra bearish. In August 08 the system was fully long commodities, and I got seriously spooked by the huge crude oil selloff from 147 to below 130, I exited it and saved a lot of money again. It was long bonds in Q4 2008, and earlier this year I trimmed the position by half as the bonds just kept tanking (I only trimmed half because I was - incorrectly - mildly bullish on bonds). I lost half as much as it would have normally.
The worst example was after the swine flu scare. The system was already short lean hogs, and added on the breakdown on the swine flu news. The market puked over 15% in a few days, and I felt it might be a bit oversold. I didn't override because my conviction was not huge, and the main trend was still strong. The market then rallied back to close the gap it made on the swine flu news. Now, as it was rallying, I felt with about 90% certainty that it would probably close the gap and stop out all those who had shorted on the news, then turn back down after squeezing out the shorts, and make new lows. However, my system had its trailing stops at exactly that price point. I decided to keep 1/4 of the short position on and move the stops higher than the gap, and let the other 3/4 position trade according to the system (I was trying to avoid overrides as it kinda defeats the point of systems trading).
Anyway, sure enough the market closed the gap, stopped out the system literally within about 4 or 5 ticks of the high off the move, then immediately puked 20% to new lows in the next couple of weeks. My discretionary override did really well but I basically missed out on an extra 20k profit because the system exited at the worst possible time.
I don't get the urge to override normally. My main issue I think is that I find it psychologically bothersome to watch the system do something "dumb" and not do anything about it.
So, I see a few alternatives:
1) Stick to the systems. They are net profitable and make acceptable returns with acceptable risk, and are almost totally uncorrelated with my normal trading results.
2) Use the systems but override them when I have strong conviction.
3) Throw away the systems and trade pure discretionary.
4) Redesign the old systems to incorporate the discretionary input that seems to be making money, if this is possible (I'm not sure it is, as my discretion is subjective feel rather than objectively measurable).
Any thoughts?
So far I've tried leaving them alone, and tried overriding them. When I have a strong view and don't override them, I usually regret it. For example in May 08 I got system buy signals in stocks, I overrode it because I was ultra bearish. In August 08 the system was fully long commodities, and I got seriously spooked by the huge crude oil selloff from 147 to below 130, I exited it and saved a lot of money again. It was long bonds in Q4 2008, and earlier this year I trimmed the position by half as the bonds just kept tanking (I only trimmed half because I was - incorrectly - mildly bullish on bonds). I lost half as much as it would have normally.
The worst example was after the swine flu scare. The system was already short lean hogs, and added on the breakdown on the swine flu news. The market puked over 15% in a few days, and I felt it might be a bit oversold. I didn't override because my conviction was not huge, and the main trend was still strong. The market then rallied back to close the gap it made on the swine flu news. Now, as it was rallying, I felt with about 90% certainty that it would probably close the gap and stop out all those who had shorted on the news, then turn back down after squeezing out the shorts, and make new lows. However, my system had its trailing stops at exactly that price point. I decided to keep 1/4 of the short position on and move the stops higher than the gap, and let the other 3/4 position trade according to the system (I was trying to avoid overrides as it kinda defeats the point of systems trading).
Anyway, sure enough the market closed the gap, stopped out the system literally within about 4 or 5 ticks of the high off the move, then immediately puked 20% to new lows in the next couple of weeks. My discretionary override did really well but I basically missed out on an extra 20k profit because the system exited at the worst possible time.
I don't get the urge to override normally. My main issue I think is that I find it psychologically bothersome to watch the system do something "dumb" and not do anything about it.
So, I see a few alternatives:
1) Stick to the systems. They are net profitable and make acceptable returns with acceptable risk, and are almost totally uncorrelated with my normal trading results.
2) Use the systems but override them when I have strong conviction.
3) Throw away the systems and trade pure discretionary.
4) Redesign the old systems to incorporate the discretionary input that seems to be making money, if this is possible (I'm not sure it is, as my discretion is subjective feel rather than objectively measurable).
Any thoughts?
