When you leave the table intrady scalper?

[Monobrowtrading]

That's an interesting quote from spooz. My experience hasn't been the same though. Some days it almost seems as if they market is set in stone on what it's going to do or at the very least has a really high probability to reach a certain level. Yesterday and even more so today was the perfect example of that.

Now how it attains that goal can be the dynamic and more tricky part, even if it's obvious on where the market is likely to go there are so many participants to be taken advantage of.

For example some people will be greedy and front load the trade and if enough people do that, it becomes beneficial for the market to pull back, flush them out and than pick up their supply at lower prices. At the same it's getting shorts to add in(which adds more fuel to the upside move later and also provides additional supply to sell into as they get forced out). Lastly it makes other people generally question there position and potentially sell their long prematurely as it moves up due to the previous shake outs. Again today was a great example of this as it was playing out exactly like this right up until near end of the day before they ripped it.

I see his point you need to be flexible, because nothing is 100%. At the same time when I can clearly and objectively define the likely macro context for the day. It is helpful for me personally to trade in that direction.

You are special.

 

[Concinnity]

You are special.

We tagged first Weekly resistance on ES, which tends to provide both a good target and also at least some pullback after prolonged down move. So leaning slightly bearish now and have 4361-4365.50 on ES below us as a level we would typically pull back to, so think that's pretty good probability to happen overnight / tomorrow.

If we trade above 4002 for very long intra-day tomorrow though that's going to open up 4464-4482 ish and again will lighten my bearish bias if that happens, similar to what I have done past few days.

#5794 Yesterday at 4:54 PM

Here is the expected pull back into the 4361-4365.50 which is often used as an accumulation area for higher up. Trading much below 4361 is not good for bulls. Even though we had some nice up movement past two days, I am still going to be very careful here. If we were in a clear bull market I'd be more aggressive in this zone, but that is not the case so right now just using the zones as an expected pullback area. Will need to wait for the open and see some setups / triggers before taking a trade and taking them as they come just to be safe.


If see anything else of high probability will post. Otherwise good luck today.

#5798 Today at 11:23 AM

I am actually getting aggressive here long:

#1 We're coming off a Daily and Weekly accumulation zone.

#2 We're above weekly ES resistance

#3 Both the Daily and Weekly setup not only hit bare bones targets but exceeded them (showing bulls are more active than most would expect).

#4 The pull back / accumulation area I posted from a larger intra-day chart last night held perfectly, went right to the level than bounced hard. This hasn't happened in like this in weeks.


Also, the micro price action last few days has the look of baiting in shorts. Lastly we're going into Friday and some large charts now have solid momentum. Perfect scenario to squeeze shorts here.


So still expecting 4464-4484 ES to be hit. Looking for it to be hit today, but of course I can't control that. But going to lean on this high probability setup and squeeze as much as I can from it.

#5805 Today at 3:08 PM

 

[Concinnity]

You are special.

Check where ES closing, almost exactly at 4464. If you or anyone else knows so much about trading, why does no one post actual views in advance? Majority of people here have to see a move to take or talk about a move. What good does hindsight trading do?


There's all my post. Time stamped. 12-24 hours in advanced. Pulled back exactly into the small 4.75 point range and closed within 1 point of first target.

Have a great weekend.

 

[pinabetal]

Thank you, but there are far more able traders on here even in this thread who are cleaning out the market on a daily basis. I'm merely picking up a few crumbs where I can.

It's all really fresh as it started out as an experiment/side project originally, but I'll say about 3 weeks now.

I haven't really changed anything in my analysis/method which tracks/anticipates the major moves of the day. I'm just banking what I perceive to be certain profits within those ranges instead of trying to capture larger gains with less certainty/consistency.

In the past I would have a ton of medium winners (3-5 points) revert back to a break-even stop-out or larger winners (10 +) revert back to smaller profits. Hell, I'm sure even quite a few 10 + going back to B/E. So, essentially giving back a lot of unrealized gains. Now, I'm just banking those instead.

While I'm leaving a lot on the table I'm now consistently profitable on a daily basis and haven't had a losing day since I started doing this.

As volpri liked to say <<grab them profits>>.

 

[pinabetal]

Appreciate the compliments, but let's just say I did finally get that losing day (and then some). I was trading with very high leverage, but the entire account was considered risk capital, so that's okay.

The problem with scalping is that you really, really need to maintain that high win-rate. Depending on your actual risk/stop, you may very well need a > 80 % win rate to have a positive expectancy. On average, I'd say it's hard to get a 1:2 risk/reward scalping ES. Usually, your risk/reward is inverted such that you need to risk more than you stand to gain.

So, if you can't maintain that consistency/high win rate you'll get in trouble eventually. A lot depends on how you deal with that loss when it first hits you and/or how much you made before you take your first loss. Meaning if you have 10 wins in a row that first loss ain't gonna sting as much as if your 2 first trades are losers putting you deeply in the hole.

This strategy and approach still holds some attraction, though. Particularly the part about getting quickly in/out, target oriented, etc.

Are you scalping yourself?

Like mr volpri said <<high win rate is an important and necessary metric for scalper>> by the way where did volpri go?

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

300 lots of ES per signal

 

[Handle123]

Check where ES closing, almost exactly at 4464. If you or anyone else knows so much about trading, why does no one post actual views in advance? Majority of people here have to see a move to take or talk about a move. What good does hindsight trading do?


There's all my post. Time stamped. 12-24 hours in advanced. Pulled back exactly into the small 4.75 point range and closed within 1 point of first target.

Have a great weekend.

Reason I can't post trades in advanced cause duration of trades are in seconds/minutes and yours are much longer. Although I will use S/R, many signals are formed by actual bar formations or relationships. I average 82 trades a day, much more concentration is required in my style.

 

[Concinnity]

Reason I can't post trades in advanced cause duration of trades are in seconds/minutes and yours are much longer. Although I will use S/R, many signals are formed by actual bar formations or relationships. I average 82 trades a day, much more concentration is required in my style.

No that's completely understandable. Actually most of my trades are seconds to minutes as well. I trade mostly based on micro structure action and high probability setups on smaller charts.

But on a good amount of days the market is already "set" meaning "they" whoever they are already have a set goal and price point they are going to take the market to. The dynamic and sometimes tricky part is what route they take to get there and that of course depends on the amount of liquidity / supply or lack there of that they run into on the way to the set goal.

This is the "random" action that so many people speak about. There's many players in the market to be taken advantage of and they are trading at different times. So, this of course allows a wide variety of strategies to be used to make money. But within the overall macro text, like I was saying and like you know first hand even if you get that wrong or don't even have the awareness of that, doesn't mean you can't see a setup or pattern where they are taking advantage of others creating a temporary imbalance that you can capitalize on.

 

[SunTrader]

....

I backtest everything, foolish not to do so as I carry 300 lots of ES per signal.

Typically what lot size are your fills?

 

[bennyg]

trading and scalping stocks is a lot different than futures.