When you Hot, your Hot...

Hmmmmmmmm...if I saw a rash of buying on strong volume and great news in the market place....I wouldn't call that a random factor...I'd say I knew the outcome...I'd say I knew what cards you were holding...random factors, gambling, probability, statistics...thats for predicting...if you know a car is out of control and has tipped over sideways, you know its gonna crash...thats not random factors...thats the way its gonna be...and so goes the market.:D
 
vinigar,

i don't quite follow what you are saying. are you saying that the trades we take are NOT influenced by random factors? if so, then why in the hell do people enter losing trades in the first place?

or are you saying that there are also non-random factors influencing the outcome? sure, i've never argued that.

or are you saying that you don't like the the term "random factor" applied to the unforeseen events that happen after the trade has been entered? well, that's a matter of definition, and does not change my point: it is never possible to completely rule out LUCK from the bottom line.

- jaan
 
I have always been an advocate of presenting to all uninformed people whom know nothing about trading in general that...any form of trading is not gambling...nor is it remotely related to chance.
We have a tough reputation to up hold...its bad enough that uninformed people draw unwarranted conclusions about us...this type of talk gives us a bad image in the publics eye...it takes years to break down these stupid thoughts and put them straight...hell, even the people who should know better...don't...for example the SEC, for another the News Media.
As for your post...I like to think that I take extreme ...great ...continual advantage of the NON RANDOM FACTORS...are there random factors involved?...grudgingly and reluctantly yaaaaa...your right:D
Do I want to chop you down or insult you ......No....its just that there is something about the words Casinos, gambling, chance....etc. that make my hair stand on end when they are used in conjunction with any form of trading...I guess I become a little defensive:D :D :D :D :D
I do not want to be blind about what you are saying...your point and what you had to say is well taken...so please forgive me if I have caused any misgivings...thats not what I am about.
I am however, constantly battling the poor reputation that we have been burdened with...and I know you are not saying that...the more people become educated about us, the better...the more we do as traders to present a better image...so much the better for us...we need to break down these barriers and promote trading like we know it to be...a good profession:cool:
 
Originally posted by vinigar
Casinos, gambling, chance....etc. that make my hair stand on end when they are used in conjunction with any form of trading...
More...
alright, fair enough. i'm indeed a person who does not pay much attention to how my thoughts are formulated, as long as i can stand behind the meaning. not to mention that english is not my first language, so my maneuvering room is a tad limited :)

- jaan
 
Vinigar,

Here is my definition of gambling;
TO PLAY A GAME OF CHANCE FOR STAKES

Can you realy sit there as a trader and tell me with 100% certainty what a market will do next?
 
Ok,
Webster's definitions:

Gambling...To play a game for money or property.

Trading......To engage in frequent buying and selling of
(as stocks or commodities).

Can I sit here and tell you with 100% certainty what a market will do next? ......Nope!

Can you sit there and tell me as a trader with 100% certainty that I am playing a game for money or property?
:)
 
I think the definition of gambling is: placing a wager on an uncertain outcome. I think trading is gambling. The trick is to be a good gambler. Just an opinion.:)
 
Vinigar,

I'm not even gonna try to understand your question, but I can tell you this; your lack of understanding and acceptance of the random nature of the markets are holding you back.

PEACE an good trading,
Commisso
 
Your argument for the market being random is that no one can determine what a stock will do next with 100% accuracy. Thats totally ridiculous - Nothing is 100%. Traders work hard for an edge, and need intense focus and discipline to be successfull - Entrepreneurs that start new business' try to cover all the angles... get the edge.... plan for success - but yes there is that chance of failure.... To liken these efforts, to what goes on in a "casino" means that your misinformed or don't understand.
 
RANDOM
Mathematics & Statistics. Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution.

Guys the only difference between me (a consistently successful trader) and the junkie at the track is that I have an edge. Thats it. I am still making consistent money off of a random outcome the same way as a casino does.


PEACE and good trading,
Commisso
 
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