14k to 7k, no one saw that one coming, even if it gets to 12k or 14k it could drop just as quick as it did last time right back below 10k, what is the extreme catalyst thats going to push these markets up another 25%, 50% 100%. Look at the Nikkei 225 index from 1989 to 2010, from nearly 40k all the way down to 8k in 2009, going to take another decade+ to see that exchange back above 20-25k.
When will we hit Dow 12000?
- Thread starter zxd
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GDP was inflated due to stimulus and the free trillions handed out to prop up the economy, the last few GDP readings are nothing but an illusion, it didn't come from natural economic growth, it came from stimulus and pumping of liquidity into the system. Its a shame all these fools believe this is the turn around that's expected to last. This economy cant even stand on its own because they have never let the free markets work to their own ability. As long as they keep pumping trillions of worthless dollars into the system GDP is just an illusion from here on in.
couldnt agree more, market is poised for another collapse, the economy is in terrible condition and anyone who thinks that we are in a recovery will only be adding to the collapse when they liquidate there long positions when the next 1000 point drop comes.
Money printing has given rise to one of the biggest rallies in a generation since the March 2009 lows.
The market eventually rises, even if it takes another decade, as they simply take out the weak companies in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 and replace them with others. Imagine if you go back over the last 10 years and do this: REMOVE all of your losing trades, and KEEP just your winning trades!
ONLY General Electric (GE) is one of the ORIGINAL Dow Jones components!
However, before the Dow gets back to 12,000 it will probably make the correction needed as it does in all past huge upswings. Fibonacci analysis puts the .50 percent retracement around 8,800 and the .618 retracement around DOW 8,300 from the March 2009 low to the April 2010 high.
The market eventually rises, even if it takes another decade, as they simply take out the weak companies in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 and replace them with others. Imagine if you go back over the last 10 years and do this: REMOVE all of your losing trades, and KEEP just your winning trades!
ONLY General Electric (GE) is one of the ORIGINAL Dow Jones components!
However, before the Dow gets back to 12,000 it will probably make the correction needed as it does in all past huge upswings. Fibonacci analysis puts the .50 percent retracement around 8,800 and the .618 retracement around DOW 8,300 from the March 2009 low to the April 2010 high.
Agree, totally. Locally, the real estate market has popped the Champagne corks, with the "high" level of real estate activity in April. Hello..........the artificial stimulus catalyst ended on April 30th, and guess what....real estate is once again at a standstill, despite the record-low mortgage rates that are available. What does that tell you ?
I don't make calls often. But I'm usually right when I do.
Do a search for Gold and Runningbear. In 2005 when gold was five hundred, I called it going to 700. When it hit 700 I called it going to 1000. And if your interested, I will tell you this. Gold is going to 1500 and will probably exceed 2000 before the end of its run.
So WTF has gold got to do with the Dow? Well the current credit crisis really began after governments abandoned the gold standard around 1980 and moved to fiat money. Then over 20 years, governments sold off their gold reserves driving the price of of gold artificially low. Who needs gold when you can print money, right?
But now the world has woken up to reality that if money is not anchored to something of intrinsic value, it really has no value. Printing money only means you have to carry more notes in your wallet to buy a litre of milk.
If the dow goes 12,000 as a result of printing money, interests rates need to rise in accordance. And if the US government suddenly increased interest rates from 0 to 10%, the entire economy would collapse.
So the Dow ain't going nowhere for a long time. As the other poster mentioned, its going to 7000 before it goes to 12000.
Stop living in a dream world. The government can't print their way out of this one.
Runningbear
What makes Gold so valuable other than the fact that everyone thinks it's valuable? It's the same thing with the Dollar and the same thing with other precious metals. Gold has little functionary use other than being nice and shiny. I believe a lot of the value of gold is a result of people's perception of it's worth instead of natural supply and demand forces driving it to an equilibrium price. Now granted that the U.S. can't just print gold like it can with dollars. I think U.S. will do everything in it's power to keep the dollar valuable without going to the gold standard. Sure, the Fed is increasing the money supply but we've not had any inflation take affect yet. when money velocity increases and inflation picks up, the Fed will go back to decreasing the money supply in a responsible way. It won't be from 0% to 10% overnight, come on.
What happened from '80 to '86 when gold dropped from 700 to 300, is that governments keeping the price low?
Agree
Gold is going to a lot higher in the long term, I think 1500 is coming as well. As for the whole money printing scheme that too will be a problem in the months and years to come, anybody who thinks printing trillions upon trillions to keep the economy moving at full speed is absolutely foolish. Everything that is being done at this second and for the last 2 years to eliminate the downside in this economy is being done wrong, every time there is a small hint of a slowdown they do everything and anything to keep the slowdown from occurring, how can that be healthy for any economy in the long run. The printing game can only last so long. Everyone believes the economy has bottomed and that jobs are going to be plentiful again but what they don't understand is that its the trillions of worthless dollars that has propped up the economy to make it look like growth is back once again. There isn't any natural growth left in our economy that's why they have to stimulate it and keep rates at 0% so that bubble ben bernanke can create new asset bubbles to get the "new economy" out of this credit crisis.
As you said and I have said many times this market is NOT going anywhere anytime soon, even if rallies 100% from here I can nearly guarantee that in the next 5-10 years it will be right back to where it is today.
Yea I was looking at a few places over the last few months and a few times I asked the agent if now was the right time to buy and of course with a big happy smile they all said certainly. You could ask that question in 2006, 2007 and all throughout the collapse and they would stand there and smile and say now is the best time to buy. Believe me after this last tax credit is done things are going to slow down even more, all that tax credit did was inflate or in that matter stabilize the housing market. The problem with the intervening in the housing market to stabilize prices is that housing prices never found a true bottom. All these programs set in place stabilized the housing market from collapsing which never took houses down to their true values. Over 1 million houses were sold under this free money program. Many are comparing this to the cash for clunkers program where many thought that after the program expired that sales of autos would continue to drop however all they have done is rise. I think comparing an auto to a house is a bit different if you ask me, I think its a bit easier to find financing for a $30,000 car than a $300,000 condo.
