When will this uptrend end?

Painfultrader · Nov 7, 2019

dozu888 said:
many on ET are new.... but if anybody has been trading for long time and cannot make money in such a long smooth trend, have you considered that you just suck as a trader?

the lack of perspective and independent thinking...

I have made the case for 'stock is dirt cheap' many times, nobody has an counter argument.... all they have is counting the 10 fingers... 10 years, must due for a crash..... if this kind of kindergarten thinking is all you have, I guarantee you won't make a cent no matter what the market does, up or down.

and there are so many people listing 100 reasons why it has to crash... in the history of the stock market, which rally did not climb the wall of worry? it's the very definition of sustainable trend as you need people in doubt on the sidelines to gradually get convinced and join in.

people do lip service - 'market is always right, trend is friend' blah blah..... but when it comes to actually putting on a trade, these people are just arrogant.. calling the market 'irrational' what not... have you thought about the possibility that you ARE the dumb money? and the market is actually rational?

so all these central banks and corporations keep buying... and these people are just idiots... you however, a 6-digit retail account, somehow is smarter than all of them.... you are the rational, they are irrational... these people become central bank presidents and corporations CEOs just by pure luck.... they are just idiots buying blind.

that's the logic people have.

Thank you for your reply. You are absolutely right. The odds of a market crash is very little. The best strategy is to long at most of the time and stick to it.

RedDuke · Nov 7, 2019

SimpleMeLike said:
Yes, I do.

But why not just trade with the trend? Market going up, buy upwards with it. High Probability would suggest if I buy something going up, more than likely I will win if it goes up some more.

I am not sure I understand the sentiment or the allure of wanting to be a bear. When the S&P500 index is up nearly 25% ytd.

Pick a spot to get long, pick a spot to place a stop loss, and ride the damn trend.

Go short some other time. Too much pony and clown show.

No argument there at all. Yet many are fighting it.

RedDuke · Nov 7, 2019

dozu888 said:
This phrase is one of the most abused. Especially by people who have missed the boat.

Missing the boat is fine, imagine people being short in this market and sticking to their positions.

SimpleMeLike · Nov 7, 2019

RedDuke said:
No argument there at all. Yet many are fighting it.

RedDuke,

Thanks for responding. Just wanted to make sure someone understood me.

I am awaiting your response in the other thread as well.

bone · Nov 7, 2019

RedDuke said:
No argument there at all. Yet many are fighting it.

They always do. Somehow a good percentage of marginally capitalized individual speculators insist that they're right and the market is wrong.

tomorton · Nov 7, 2019

Clients with an open position on the DJIA index value tonight with my access provider are 74% short, 26% long. Well, after a strong up move today maybe the market will pull back. And maybe these shorters are only looking for a few bearish hours' worth of action. But being right about this doesn't make it the best game to play. Its not something I'd bet on.

bone · Nov 7, 2019

tomorton said:
Clients with an open position on the DJIA index value tonight with my access provider are 74% short, 26% long.

Good grief that is bullish. Squeeze City.

dozu888 · Nov 7, 2019

tomorton said:
Clients with an open position on the DJIA index value tonight with my access provider are 74% short, 26% long. Well, after a strong up move today maybe the market will pull back. And maybe these shorters are only looking for a few bearish hours' worth of action. But being right about this doesn't make it the best game to play. Its not something I'd bet on.

bone said:
Good grief that is bullish. Squeeze City.

not 'a few hours'... these numbers are fairly close to the forexIG data I refer to all the time, currently at 80/20 short long... and these numbers change very slowly from day to day.

how to see the data with your 'access provider'?

vanzandt · Nov 7, 2019

"The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal."

That's a Warren Buffet quote from a 2001 interview with Fortune Magazine.

https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm

So here's where we're at now.
Does it mean anything?

.... just throwing it out there.

GuerrillaTrading · Nov 7, 2019

"Bull markets are born in pessimism, they grow in skepticism, they mature in optimism and they die in euphoria." Arc of a Market Cycle