When will this bubble bust?

harrybachs · Oct 29, 2006

I think that dems or reps are not the end all for trader sentiment. The market looks at the world 6months down the road.

The largest problem with the market is people. Just because people do irrational things, and have a heard mentality. They all wait for someone to make a move and follow along.

Harry

BCE · Oct 29, 2006

Quote from wareco:

Hmmm? I say it starts Friday, after GDP report.

Good call maybe.

We'll see if there's any follow through on the selloff Friday tomorrow. We may get an attempt to rally the first hour or two and then a slow slide. Haven't checked on the economic reports/earnings yet for this week. Friday was finally one of the few days when buying a dip didn't pay off. It's been a while since this was true. Was this a one day aberration or a change in the sentiment? At some point selling rally attempts will be the thing to do. Stay tuned.

S2007S · Oct 29, 2006

Quote from BCE:

Good call maybe. We'll see if there's any follow through on the selloff Friday tomorrow. We may get an attempt to rally the first hour or two and then a slow slide. Haven't checked on the economic reports/earnings yet for this week. Friday was finally one of the few days when buying a dip didn't pay off. It's been a while since this was true. Was this a one day aberration or a change in the sentiment? At some point selling rally attempts will be the thing to do. Stay tuned.

WMT news may create some selling pressure in the first hour of trading but I think for some reason they will take friday as a buying opportunity, especially the semis which were knocked down pretty hard on talk about slow down in sales of mother boards.

I thought friday that the markets were going to breakout on the upside after trading down most of the morning. Buying on the dip like you said didnt work out and I think many bulls were actually surprised. If the semis start to decline the rest of tech will follow.

BCE · Oct 29, 2006

Quote from S2007S:

WMT news may create some selling pressure in the first hour of trading but I think for some reason they will take friday as a buying opportunity, especially the semis which were knocked down pretty hard on talk about slow down in sales of mother boards.

I thought friday that the markets were going to breakout on the upside after trading down most of the morning. Buying on the dip like you said didnt work out and I think many bulls were actually surprised. If the semis start to decline the rest of tech will follow.

I could feel it wasn't going to bounce at the end of the day Friday but didn't short it as every other time I thought that would happen and I did it immediately bounced and nailed me. LOL

It's been irrationally bullish it seemed to me. But who asked me? I foolishly tried to short the last huge tank post fed announcement on Wed thinking this may be the turn and they had 15 mins to digest the statement, and it just went flying off the bottom.

Had a nice morning profit before this and then had to trade my little heart out to get it back. There are important econ #'s tomorrow at 8:30 EST. So that should have a big influence I believe. Stay tuned.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={E8710EBB-F635-46C1-925F-13BC6582DB05}&siteid=
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteId=

BCE · Oct 29, 2006

Quote from S2007S:

WMT news may create some selling pressure in the first hour of trading but I think for some reason they will take friday as a buying opportunity, especially the semis which were knocked down pretty hard on talk about slow down in sales of mother boards.

I thought friday that the markets were going to breakout on the upside after trading down most of the morning. Buying on the dip like you said didnt work out and I think many bulls were actually surprised. If the semis start to decline the rest of tech will follow.

The ^SOXX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=^SOXX
Click on the small chart to get a bigger better one.

DeepFried · Oct 29, 2006

I'm thinking the market marks time, maybe a little higher, until the elections, then we get another big-ass rally regardless of the results.

BCE · Oct 29, 2006

Quote from DeepFried:

I'm thinking the market marks time, maybe a little higher, until the elections, then we get another big-ass rally regardless of the results.

Not sure about the direction. your guess is as good as mine. But I don't think the election results will effect the market that much one way or the other. I think the economic numbers and earnings are more important than politics now.
I'm headed off for the day but just noticed only one contract of oats was traded today at the previous close. That doesn't say much.

Have a good night. See you all tomorrow.

S2007S · Oct 29, 2006

Quote from DeepFried:

I'm thinking the market marks time, maybe a little higher, until the elections, then we get another big-ass rally regardless of the results.

That 1.6% GDP # really wasn't what the bulls wanted to keep this rally in place. Im sure the markets will continue to rally just because it wants to rally, but when news shows the economy is slowing and that the housing industry is going to have more of a hard landing than previously thought watch out.

As for who takes the win on november 7th...I think it was bulls and bears on fox that had 2 predictions that the republicans were going to win. Still close to call but the democrats look like they may have an advantage. Think the market will take a dip in mid november, at least a 3% drop.

Bitstream · Oct 29, 2006

charts of the leaders looks a touch ugly. not sure we'll begin to go down and have a serious retracement but futs patterns also aint that healthy right now.

toc · Oct 29, 2006

markets will keep going up until the April of next year when the Interest rates peak and then we start to see economic slowdown and lower earnings start to correct the markets. Also watch out for US$ peaking with the rates and then sliding downhill like by 30%.........there is no other way out to payoff the debt other than Chinese, Japanese, British decide to write it off as a favor to the US.........wishful but not possible!

People would ask, won't the interest rates peaking bring the bulls out in open..........i don't think so......go figure!