I am no closer to figuring out where BTC might go in the short to medium term.
Yesterday was a strange day. BTC made new highs, as the previous days' momentum sort of suggested, then it promptly sold off as much at -14% before staging a massive but only partial recovery. I never saw that. My best guess would have been for it to either a) hold the ATH as fresh money entered, or b) a small sell-off, maybe 2-3% as the ATM represented some relief to holders who have endured 2.5 years of misery.
My expectation now is that while markets have ample liquidity and speculation, investors are definitely risk-off, and so the rally can continue from here. This sort of ties in with the memecoin action I saw yesterday, Pepe regaining most of what it lost, and Dogwifhat even breaking new ground. The market caps I see here are astounding. What it didn't tie in with was gold finally making it through $2,100/oz, especially in recent days Fed speakers have again tried to further reduce the market's expectations for rate cuts this year (stays expensive to hold a non-income asset). I can fairly comfortably explain away the S&P action yesterday as some well-needed profit-taking, and the small rise in the VIX was therefore rational.
