When will the current surge in Bitcoin end?

[wxytrader]

Does anyone have some objective insights into when the current surge in Bitcoin may end?

As far as I can see it's mainly driven by: a) approval by SEC of Bitcoin ETFs on 10 Jan, albeit with a 4-week lag, b) the upcoming halving, estimated in 54 days on 19 Apr, and c) easier financial conditions/perceived lower recession risk, indicating a risk-off environment.

My current feeling is that the recent run-up has been strong and surprising, and some weeks of consolidation could now happen. But the path of least resistence could be upwards, at least until the halving. And if the economy stays strong and the S&P stays bid, it may last until summer. Then it may fall together with the SPX into the seasonally weak summer months. Hardly impressive observations, but that's the best I can do.

I am long Bitcoin (via a proxy) and happy to ride the positive momentum in the short term, albeit with a low risk tolerance. But I want to be ready to play it to the short side, when the current wave of optimism dries up.

(Note: If you are a long term Bitcoin 'investor' then you may not be objective here. And not just BTC, but ETH, Doge, Floki, Bored Apes, CryptoPunks, anything, crypto, NFTs, etc things like this. For these investors, this probably isn't the right thread for you.)

All that is nonsense. This price has been determined since summer based on the chart alone.

 

[wxytrader]

Altcoins ..once they start to move 100% a month




Hey I'm surprised fidelity came out with such a ridiculous prediction. I guess when fomo builds anything and everything they believe is actually achievable until the bubble bursts and everyone is seeing nothing but a gigantic collapse in front them now holding on and hoping for a return back to Highs

The prediction was just based on math nothing else.

 

[nitrene]

There is no way to do the right thing. Going down the bitcoin rabbit hole, I learned that the current model requires growth and inflation. If you take on a debt, you need to make principal and interest payments. The only way for this to happen is for there to be more money next year. If the governments do the right thing, which is not spend, then people can't pay back their debts. One person's debt is another person's asset, so if you reduce debt growth, you kill assets. It literally is a house of cards that will all collapse.

The only good thing the government can do is help facilitate the movement to a new system. Of course once everyone can see the system isn't working and a new system is needed, its like a panic, and often times they say its like pulling the fire alarm in a packed movie theatre with only a tiny door open for exiting. So most don't exit before fire consumes them.

The seeds of destruction are already sown, and what every government official hopes for is that it doesn't happen on their watch.

Proved positive by the crazy issuance of debt by Yellen & her cronies -- $1 trillion every 100 days. How is the west going to recover from this crazy MMT clown world?

 

[wxytrader]

RSI is showing divergence from previous peak, so I would say we are close to the top. But then again this is bitcoin.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

The prediction was just based on math nothing else.

Math? No. Blue sky.

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

So bitcoin aka ponzi coin is the single best example of the greater fool theory. Literally worth absolutely nothing in reality, but is pumping to the moon. As we've seen in equities, they can pump it forever so why would this be any different.

Everything is mooning with zero risk. That's the world we live it. Everyone is getting rich.

 

[wxytrader]

RSI is showing divergence from previous peak, so I would say we are close to the top.

You're welcome everybody.

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

Same looking chart as a stock would. Drop today, then of course it gets saved and brought back above the 5EMA and probably will V right back again.

 

[wxytrader]

Same looking chart as a stock would. Drop today, then of course it gets saved and brought back above the 5EMA and probably will V right back again.

Nah this isn't the big move...it could meander back up to the 70's but back down to the 40's from there until fall...the horsepower is gone for now imo. I mean that could be one big ass pin to trigger all the margin calls from the over leveraged...that was a 10k drop.

 

[S2007S]

Drops like this I believe scare more people away than actually create new buyers ....and those now who bought at 64k 65k 66k 67k 68k will most likely sell as soon as bitcoin starts to trade at those levels again so they recoup all losses

So once again I will repeat, bitcoin will never ever be used as a main source for purchasing goods and services. Its way too volatile as you can now see it moving thousands of dollars a day!