When will the current surge in Bitcoin end?

[cartmm]

Does anyone have some objective insights into when the current surge in Bitcoin may end?

As far as I can see it's mainly driven by: a) approval by SEC of Bitcoin ETFs on 10 Jan, albeit with a 4-week lag, b) the upcoming halving, estimated in 54 days on 19 Apr, and c) easier financial conditions/perceived lower recession risk, indicating a risk-off environment.

My current feeling is that the recent run-up has been strong and surprising, and some weeks of consolidation could now happen. But the path of least resistence could be upwards, at least until the halving. And if the economy stays strong and the S&P stays bid, it may last until summer. Then it may fall together with the SPX into the seasonally weak summer months. Hardly impressive observations, but that's the best I can do.

I am long Bitcoin (via a proxy) and happy to ride the positive momentum in the short term, albeit with a low risk tolerance. But I want to be ready to play it to the short side, when the current wave of optimism dries up.

(Note: If you are a long term Bitcoin 'investor' then you may not be objective here. And not just BTC, but ETH, Doge, Floki, Bored Apes, CryptoPunks, anything, crypto, NFTs, etc things like this. For these investors, this probably isn't the right thread for you.)

 

[S2007S]

Well if you look at all asset classes it seems they are only going one way, up. And as for bitcoin well most will say bitcoin will be on a forever upward trajectory lasting decades. Even fidelity came out with a price prediction of 1 billion by 2038, yes 1 billion! Other predictions are for 100k by this year 500k and even a million in a few years so it seems between cryptocurrencies and stocks the only way is UP!

 

[BAT31]

Mid to late 2025. Things are only getting started. As inflation declines, more investors will have more disposable income. And as a result, BTC, and altcoins will surge. I started a portfolio of 10 altcoins a month ago, and I have already experienced a 100% return.

 

[Pricechange]

Interest rates are high rn. They can only go lower from here. We are in for a long general bull market cycle.

 

[mskl]

Crypto will end when G7 nations start protecting the value of their currencies via Balance sheet reduction and deficit reduction.

Until then - look for crypto to outperform all other assets (stocks/bonds/real estate cash).

So it likely will be years as no one wants to protect the value of fiat money because of the pain that it will cause.

take a look at how the US equity market has not gone up in both US$ and also up in Bitcoin in the last 10 years (looking at it annually). For example the Nasdaq was up 53% in 2023 when priced in US dollars but down 20% when priced in Bitcoin. The only two years (in the last 10) that Bitcoin underperformed equities were years that equities were down in us$ as we were protecting the value of money somewhat in those years.

So be careful thinking that you are getting wealthy holding US equities.....

 

[RedDuke]

It will end when Tethers are stopped. Until then any BTC level can be reached. Once Tethers are no more, the crush will stun the world.

 

[engineering]

Even fidelity came out with a price prediction of 1 billion by 2038, yes 1 billion!

It will stop when people who believe delusional nonsense like this run out of money.

21 million Bitcoin at 1 billion each is 21e15 dollars.
Current global money supply is something like 84 trillion (84e12).

Bitcoin is a clownshow

 

[S2007S]

Mid to late 2025. Things are only getting started. As inflation declines, more investors will have more disposable income. And as a result, BTC, and altcoins will surge. I started a portfolio of 10 altcoins a month ago, and I have already experienced a 100% return.

Altcoins ..once they start to move 100% a month

It will stop when people who believe delusional nonsense like this run out of money.

21 million Bitcoin at 1 billion each is 21e15 dollars.
Current global money supply is something like 84 trillion (84e12).

Bitcoin is a clownshow

It will stop when people who believe delusional nonsense like this run out of money.

21 million Bitcoin at 1 billion each is 21e15 dollars.
Current global money supply is something like 84 trillion (84e12).

Bitcoin is a clownshow

Hey I'm surprised fidelity came out with such a ridiculous prediction. I guess when fomo builds anything and everything they believe is actually achievable until the bubble bursts and everyone is seeing nothing but a gigantic collapse in front them now holding on and hoping for a return back to Highs

 

[BKR88]

Interest rates are high rn. They can only go lower from here.

High relative to the past few years but not high when looking at the long-term view.
Read something yesterday where the author thinks the next move by the Fed is a raise in rates.

Bitcoin is a clownshow

Fed money printing is the clownshow that gives Bitcoin some merit as a store of value.

 

[S2007S]

High relative to the past few years but not high when looking at the long-term view.
Read something yesterday where the author thinks the next move by the Fed is a raise in rates.

View attachment 335233


Fed money printing is the clownshow that gives Bitcoin some merit as a store of value.

Rate hike????


Well to be honest wallstreet can't afford another rate hike only because fed and friends promised everyone rate cuts. And they were hoping for rate cuts thus quarter and aren't getting them so the fed will not let them down by giving wallstreet rate hikes....
Like I said I hope the fed cuts 2 to 3% off the rates by mid 2025 only to see inflation ramp back up and see them play catch up once again....would be so great to see this scenario unfold...