When will the China bubble pop?

Quote from elisab:

The market is punishing those countries that have not adopted due reforms to the incredible growth rates of the last few years. Brazil, India, Turkey, Indonesia, etc...the crisis risk in these countries is much high.
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I would disagree. The countries mentioned are the one's which are in better shape than China.

Brazil shows nothing wrong.
Turkey is probably a Tiger story in middle east.
India, facing some hickups, nothing serious.
Indonesia......don't know, so no comments.

However, one thing very wrong in these countries is CORRUPTION on MEGA scales. Crony capitalism is destined to face hard challenges and encourage socialistic opportunists. That is the real danger.

West succeeded because mostly fair play was enacted. As fair play 'somewhat ended' ex: $100M bonuses to top management, top salaries to government employees etc. then west also started to suffer and it is getting bad constantly.
 
It's always tempting to think "the West" (USA etc.) succeeded in an era of hard work and fair play. But even a cursory look at the facts shows a depth of political corruption that resembles a bottomless pit of slime. The robber barons that built our ralroads needed strong men not just to protect them but to help carry the suitcases full of cash to DC and particularly state capitals.

Are there tgipping points? Surely there are level of corruption that make it impossible for a society to rise above but using history (ancient to recent) it is astonishing how high those level are. You can't take a freakin' leak in India or the Mid East without bribing someone!

Quote from toc:

I would disagree. The countries mentioned are the one's which are in better shape than China.

Brazil shows nothing wrong.
Turkey is probably a Tiger story in middle east.
India, facing some hickups, nothing serious.
Indonesia......don't know, so no comments.

However, one thing very wrong in these countries is CORRUPTION on MEGA scales. Crony capitalism is destined to face hard challenges and encourage socialistic opportunists. That is the real danger.

West succeeded because mostly fair play was enacted. As fair play 'somewhat ended' ex: $100M bonuses to top management, top salaries to government employees etc. then west also started to suffer and it is getting bad constantly.
More...
 
We should also remember that the "right" level of corruption does grease the gears and make a society run a bit smoother. Admittedly that right level can pretty quickly expand to the wrong level.
 
Quote from toc:

I would disagree. The countries mentioned are the one's which are in better shape than China.

Brazil shows nothing wrong.
Turkey is probably a Tiger story in middle east.
India, facing some hickups, nothing serious.
Indonesia......don't know, so no comments.

However, one thing very wrong in these countries is CORRUPTION on MEGA scales. Crony capitalism is destined to face hard challenges and encourage socialistic opportunists. That is the real danger.

West succeeded because mostly fair play was enacted. As fair play 'somewhat ended' ex: $100M bonuses to top management, top salaries to government employees etc. then west also started to suffer and it is getting bad constantly.
More...

Apart from Turkey, on which I agree with you, the other countries have not only corruption, but also an excess of financial capital that entered from the west and are now fading. This phenomenon is called current account deficit and will not be offset by the trade balance because the world trade is slowing down.
 
While not an economist but if too much foreign capital was chasing Indian investments then why is Rupee taking a beating. It should be rising. Inherently India has a problem of touching 5% Fiscal deficit, i.e. overspending than the budget allocation, something that put US into trouble.

However both Brazil and India have growing economies around 5% and thus robust internal demand. Are they fueling the growth by fiscal deficits i.e. printing money to create or rather force consumption.

Bottomline is Third World or rather non Western world needs to get over the habbit of CORRUPTION. Without clean or majority clean economic machine, severe inefficiencies and break downs will happen and opportunists like socialists, dictators, robber-barons, religious fanatics will take power and run their mind experiments on the general populations.
 
Quote from toc:



Brazil shows nothing wrong.
Turkey is probably a Tiger story in middle east.
India, facing some hickups, nothing serious.
Indonesia......don't know, so no comments.

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hum. Recent issues of Economists discussed the economies of these countries. If I remember correctly, they are not in good shape, judging from the recent deep declining of their currencies.
 
Quote from pepper_john:

hum. Recent issues of Economists discussed the economies of these countries. If I remember correctly, they are not in good shape, judging from the recent deep declining of their currencies.
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Good article, you might be correct on weak standing of these economies


http://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...nals-hit-most-economies/Article1-1113399.aspx

Analysts warned of more pain, particularly for Asian emerging economies, as the world settles down to state of stronger dollar and rising interest rates.

"If the rise in the US dollar were to continue for longer, this will bring Asia to a situation that would be similar to the 1990s," Morgan Stanley, investment banking major, said in report.
 
Quote from toc:

While not an economist but if too much foreign capital was chasing Indian investments then why is Rupee taking a beating. It should be rising. Inherently India has a problem of touching 5% Fiscal deficit, i.e. overspending than the budget allocation, something that put US into trouble.

However both Brazil and India have growing economies around 5% and thus robust internal demand. Are they fueling the growth by fiscal deficits i.e. printing money to create or rather force consumption.

Bottomline is Third World or rather non Western world needs to get over the habbit of CORRUPTION. Without clean or majority clean economic machine, severe inefficiencies and break downs will happen and opportunists like socialists, dictators, robber-barons, religious fanatics will take power and run their mind experiments on the general populations.
More...

I seriously doubt that Brazil and India will grow by 5% against the restrictive measures that they will be forced to adopt in order to avoid a collapse of the currency.
 
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