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When will the China bubble pop?
- Thread starter noregrets
- Start date
I will be a buyer of FXP if and when we can make it to single digits and/or there is some headline news on how great China is doing.Quote from Zr1Trader:
When it comes time to short, what is the best thing to short?
I watched a documentary on those vacant cities built, they are like ghost towns.
And the Chinese are starting to think about the standard gold...
http://rbth.asia/business/2013/07/17/china_reportedly_planning_to_back_the_yuan_with_gold_47997.html
http://rbth.asia/business/2013/07/17/china_reportedly_planning_to_back_the_yuan_with_gold_47997.html
The decision to remove the floor has been expected by the mkt for months.
I think about the China scenario a lot lately. One big difference, I think, is that China has deep pockets, and the government plays a huge role in the economy compared to other economies.
It'd be pretty cool to get Maverick74 to jump in and give his two cents on the China scene, as well as others that may be versed on the topic. I've a Chinese buddy that is a finance PhD. He doesn't seem concerned. But to me that's not realistic.
At what point would the Chinese government stop buying assets, if there was a melt down out there? What is in their best interest?
It'd be pretty cool to get Maverick74 to jump in and give his two cents on the China scene, as well as others that may be versed on the topic. I've a Chinese buddy that is a finance PhD. He doesn't seem concerned. But to me that's not realistic.
At what point would the Chinese government stop buying assets, if there was a melt down out there? What is in their best interest?
Q
Inside Chinaâs Shadow Banking
The Next Subprime Crisis?
An Insiderâs View of Chinaâs Microcredit Industry and Some Stunning Predictions for the Future
Is shadow banking in China likely to become the source of the next global financial crisis or simply a little understood area of the enormous Mainland economy? Financial industry expert Joe Zhang pulls back the curtain on this sector and explains how shadow banking in China impacts the regional and world economies.
Within shadow banking, Chinaâs microcredit industry is an area of tremendous interest for most business analysts. In Inside Chinaâs Shadow Banking: The Next Subprime Crisis?, Joe Zhang pinpoints the areas of concern based on his experience in the field and his knowledge of the complicated rules and regulations of banking in China gathered during his years as an official of the central Peopleâs Bank of China in Beijing.
Drawing on his time spent at UBS, as well as the work of prominent economists, Joe Zhang explains shadow banking and microcredit in China for investors, economists, laypeople, and the general public.
Joe Zhang, 50, is an independent corporate advisor based in Hong Kong. From 2011 to 2012, he was Chairman of Wansui Micro Credit Company in Guangzhou, China. He was named "A Microcredit Person of the Year" in January 2012 by the Microcredit Association of China.
He worked for 11 years at UBS, mainly as Head of China Research and then Deputy Head of its China Investment Banking Division.
From 1986 to 1989, he was an official of the central People's Bank of China in Beijing. From 2006 to 2008, he was the Chief Operating Officer of Shenzhen Investment Limited, a property developer.
His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, International Herald Tribune, and The New York Times.
UQ
Inside Chinaâs Shadow Banking
The Next Subprime Crisis?
An Insiderâs View of Chinaâs Microcredit Industry and Some Stunning Predictions for the Future
Is shadow banking in China likely to become the source of the next global financial crisis or simply a little understood area of the enormous Mainland economy? Financial industry expert Joe Zhang pulls back the curtain on this sector and explains how shadow banking in China impacts the regional and world economies.
Within shadow banking, Chinaâs microcredit industry is an area of tremendous interest for most business analysts. In Inside Chinaâs Shadow Banking: The Next Subprime Crisis?, Joe Zhang pinpoints the areas of concern based on his experience in the field and his knowledge of the complicated rules and regulations of banking in China gathered during his years as an official of the central Peopleâs Bank of China in Beijing.
Drawing on his time spent at UBS, as well as the work of prominent economists, Joe Zhang explains shadow banking and microcredit in China for investors, economists, laypeople, and the general public.
Joe Zhang, 50, is an independent corporate advisor based in Hong Kong. From 2011 to 2012, he was Chairman of Wansui Micro Credit Company in Guangzhou, China. He was named "A Microcredit Person of the Year" in January 2012 by the Microcredit Association of China.
He worked for 11 years at UBS, mainly as Head of China Research and then Deputy Head of its China Investment Banking Division.
From 1986 to 1989, he was an official of the central People's Bank of China in Beijing. From 2006 to 2008, he was the Chief Operating Officer of Shenzhen Investment Limited, a property developer.
His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, International Herald Tribune, and The New York Times.
UQ
http://www.afr.com/p/national/northern_china_city_of_ghosts_b6b9ymGVdV7qu5jeK2qmDI
Northern Chinaâs city of ghosts
Q
Only five of the 43 projects in the first phase of development have been completed, but over the next 18 months to two years, property group DTZ estimates 1.57 million square metres of office space will be available for lease. If all the projects now under construction are completed, then double this amount will come onto the market. Thatâs equivalent to 60 per cent of Sydneyâs CBD office space.
Yet Crystal Hao, an analyst from DTZ, estimates annual demand in Binhai is only 60,000 square metres. âThatâs why we are not very confident about its prospects,â she says drily. At current rates of growth it will therefore take 53 years to fill all the available space. But that is just a fraction of what has been planned. The grand vision is to build a CBD with more than 10 million square metres of office space â double the Sydney CBD. As part of this vanity project there will be three landmark towers taller than 500 metres or 100 storeys, including Binhaiâs very own Rockefeller Centre.
âThere is a massive oversupply,â says Gao. âItâs totally irrational.â
UQ
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binhai_New_Area
Q
http://thechinachronicle.com/chinas...-to-be-bigger-and-better-than-the-real-thing/
When finished, Yujiapu and the area across the Hai River immediately adjacent to it is slated to provide 15.2 million square meters (164 million square feet) of office space. Though larger in surface area, Yujiapu only intends to offer a little over a third of Manhattanâs business capacity.
UQ
http://thechinachronicle.com/chinas-ghost-cities/
Northern Chinaâs city of ghosts
Q
Only five of the 43 projects in the first phase of development have been completed, but over the next 18 months to two years, property group DTZ estimates 1.57 million square metres of office space will be available for lease. If all the projects now under construction are completed, then double this amount will come onto the market. Thatâs equivalent to 60 per cent of Sydneyâs CBD office space.
Yet Crystal Hao, an analyst from DTZ, estimates annual demand in Binhai is only 60,000 square metres. âThatâs why we are not very confident about its prospects,â she says drily. At current rates of growth it will therefore take 53 years to fill all the available space. But that is just a fraction of what has been planned. The grand vision is to build a CBD with more than 10 million square metres of office space â double the Sydney CBD. As part of this vanity project there will be three landmark towers taller than 500 metres or 100 storeys, including Binhaiâs very own Rockefeller Centre.
âThere is a massive oversupply,â says Gao. âItâs totally irrational.â
UQ
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binhai_New_Area
Q
http://thechinachronicle.com/chinas...-to-be-bigger-and-better-than-the-real-thing/
When finished, Yujiapu and the area across the Hai River immediately adjacent to it is slated to provide 15.2 million square meters (164 million square feet) of office space. Though larger in surface area, Yujiapu only intends to offer a little over a third of Manhattanâs business capacity.
UQ
http://thechinachronicle.com/chinas-ghost-cities/