When Will Crude Hit $40/barrel again?

When Will Crude Hit $40/barrel again?

  • Never

    Votes: 79 66.9%

  • 2008-2009

    Votes: 7 5.9%

  • 2010-2011

    Votes: 9 7.6%

  • 2012-2013

    Votes: 16 13.6%

  • 2014-2015

    Votes: 7 5.9%
  • Total voters
    118
Quote from gnome:

But 10 years ago, China and India were barely on the scene as oil consumers..
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And you can also make the case that alternative forms of energy and the use of new technology ( that comes online at much higher prices ) did not really exist in a "commercial" capacity, either.

Demand is only one part of the equation, albeit an important one. But the last time I checked, there was no "moratorium" declared on global recessions . . .
 
Without insult and just a reminder for those guys who voted "Never" may forgot that objects are subjected to gravity. There is development on going to use alternative energy such as hydrogen, ethanol. When people get crewed, they will revolt to escape.
 
Quote from Landis82:

And you can also make the case that alternative forms of energy and the use of new technology ( that comes online at much higher prices ) did not really exist in a "commercial" capacity, either.

Demand is only one part of the equation, albeit an important one. But the last time I checked, there was no "moratorium" declared on global recessions . . .
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Do you think oil could drop to $40 even if a world wide recession? Doesn't seem likely to me... Used to be the oil world was run by "how much the Americans used and how OPEC responded"... that has changed a lot.
 
Quote from Ccal831:

More like when will it hit $200... aka 2009
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A friend of mine bough some Dec 09 200 calls back when oil was around $75... He says, "if it gets to $220, he's golden"...
 
Quote from gnome:

Do you think oil could drop to $40 even if a world wide recession? Doesn't seem likely to me... Used to be the oil world was run by "how much the Americans used and how OPEC responded"... that has changed a lot.
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But even just a mere 10 years ago it had a lot to do with Japan and Asia-Pacific. The Asian currency crisis that developed in 1998 really put a damper on oil demand from that region.

That, combined with OPEC's interest in "flushing" out marginal producers in order to obtain marketshare were the key ingredients that went into oil hitting $10.00 after renegade producers like Venezuela did not march to the OPEC tune of 2.58 million barrels per day production. ( Venezuela was > 3.0 mill per day ).

http://money.cnn.com/1998/03/10/markets/oil/
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

I think $40 crude would be something like 1.12 EUR/USD. And a dollar index of....what? 88?
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Not quite.

Back in 1998 the Dollar Index spent the first 8 months of the year range-bound between 98 - 102, before it "broke" down in the Fall to 91 before rebounding in Nov back to 97.
 
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