When will all crypto collapse?

NoahA said:
Yes, not that long ago, people needed 50% downpayment for a house. There were no credit cards. You left home when you saved up enough money to move out. The world works just fine on savings. It's of course more difficult to become a billionaire, but it's something that the world can do without.
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I bought my first home with nothing down. First and second mortgage. Then government gradually increased the down payment to 5, 10 and now today 20%.
Probably more millionaires made in real estate than any other business.
You left home as soon as you had a job. The human is the only species that lets the young back into the nest.
Hard to start a business without credit of some kind. Who do you work for? Can they survive without credit?
There will always someone to lend you money as long as you want instant gratification.
 
deaddog said:
I bought my first home with nothing down. First and second mortgage. Then government gradually increased the down payment to 5, 10 and now today 20%.
Probably more millionaires made in real estate than any other business.
You left home as soon as you had a job. The human is the only species that lets the young back into the nest.
Hard to start a business without credit of some kind. Who do you work for? Can they survive without credit?
There will always someone to lend you money as long as you want instant gratification.
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I'm happy with lending, but not when a central authority manages the rates and can print at will. Rates should be set by the market based on what they are willing to lose in case of default. With government essentially backstopping mortgages, no wonder RE went to the moon. Let's see the banks actually have to hold a loan to maturity. Let's also see them actually only loan out deposits they collect. None of this fractional reserve banking designed to enslave the majority while enriching the minority. I would love to see poor people revolt. When you can't afford both food and housing, it's a fault of the system. Burn it all down I say.

95% of the problems today tie back directly to the actions of central banks and government spending. Why do they have so much power? A Bitcoin world that enforces trust and accountability is the only way forward. There is no way to clean up the mess now.
 
The fact that monetary policy can exist outside the world of rationality is simply amazing. When it comes to food, it has to be in the real world. You can use fractional reserve banking principles for food. You only have as much as you harvest. With housing, you only have as much as you build. If you lend you neighbour some potatoes and they don't return them next time they go shopping, you are out a bag of potatoes, which is totally logical. But why is it that with money, we can perform magic and print what is needed, or loan what you don't have. Fiat currency doesn't live in the rational and physical world that we have to live in.
 
BTC people love to point out that the amount of bitcoins is limited - and suggest that they must therefore increase in price. They compare it to gold and silver.
But BTC is different as while BTC has a limited number it is very possible to keep adding different crytocurrencies- no limits to numbers there.
Gold, silver, platinum are limited both in quantity and total number.
 
NoahA said:
The fact that monetary policy can exist outside the world of rationality is simply amazing. When it comes to food, it has to be in the real world. You can use fractional reserve banking principles for food. You only have as much as you harvest. With housing, you only have as much as you build. If you lend you neighbour some potatoes and they don't return them next time they go shopping, you are out a bag of potatoes, which is totally logical. But why is it that with money, we can perform magic and print what is needed, or loan what you don't have. Fiat currency doesn't live in the rational and physical world that we have to live in.
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Simple answer is that the gov 'destroys' money through taxation, import companies send the domestic currency to foreign exporters and reinvest/distribute retained earnings, earned wages are absorbed into the stock market through 401k contributions, and total government spending (a very large part of GDP) varies every year.

The government wants to inflate the economy because it will lead to higher tax revenue under the current marginal tax rate system. They also want to be seen as the saviors, by solving problems with government spending programs. The GOP loves tax cuts and defense spend, while the DNC wants to push social programs (climate, gender, identity politic) and be perceived as being tough on energy subsidy and corporate greed (think -- "big oil").

The donor groups and special interests (Koch, Citizens United, etc... lol) all have an agenda, and they fund candidates that will 'play ball' so to speak.

The amount of fiat is therefor not so simple to estimate, and not strictly speaking, only and always increasing. The US fears deflation, because of its past. But, other countries, e.g. Germany, fear inflation, because they suffered under the post war agreements after WWI and leading up to WWII.
 
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traderob said:
BTC people love to point out that the amount of bitcoins is limited - and suggest that they must therefore increase in price. They compare it to gold and silver.
But BTC is different as while BTC has a limited number it is very possible to keep adding different crytocurrencies- no limits to numbers there.
Gold, silver, platinum are limited both in quantity and total number.
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But even if there was only BTC, it would probably end up just like gold with far more $ in derivatives (futures, options, ETFs etc) than coins. People say gold price is manipulated, and I don't know if that's true but BTC could be just as easily manipulated with derivatives. The finite limited supply is an illusion because ways will always be found to trade far more than ever exists.
 
Ed48 said:
But even if there was only BTC, it would probably end up just like gold with far more $ in derivatives (futures, options, ETFs etc) than coins. People say gold price is manipulated, and I don't know if that's true but BTC could be just as easily manipulated with derivatives. The finite limited supply is an illusion because ways will always be found to trade far more than ever exists.
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It does suck that bitcoin futures are giving lots of traders exposure to the bitcoin price without having to buy it, but we are clearly seeing how many people are taking bitcoin off exchange and going into cold storage. The fact that you can verify these imbalances is something you were never able to do with gold. So yes, some people just want to trade it, but many are wanting to hold it in cold storage and exchanges themselves might one day profile the mother of all squeezes when the buying really overwhelms supply and customers are looking to withdraw.
 
Crypto bros offloading G-Wagons, luxury cars amid FTX crash
https://nypost.com/2022/11/28/crypto-bros-offloading-g-wagons-luxury-cars-amid-ftx-crash/

before-xrypto-after-car.jpg
 
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