When to call it quits as a trader
- Thread starter jbtrader23
- Start date
This guy has a deep complex indeed he should consult a psychiatrist it is as if I had assassinated his father : poor guy 
Let's explain again slowly little by little: if you had clicked on the reference link I had given you would have seen that it is not my theory but two studies from different economists reported in a doctorate thesis untitled "Financial market and modelisation of stock market's return" (translated from french title) who has even been financed by a special fund from the Government in fact). There was no reference to Chaos theory so that you totally invented what you wanted below.
As for Levy's law and persistence of chance used as argument, it is is also classics from academics, researchers and some hedge fund managers for example Jean Philippe Bouchaud in this online conference http://www.canal-u.education.fr/canalu/affiche_programme.php?vHtml=0&programme_id=351. Since you have tendancy to consider everybody as an idiot when you don't agree with him this guy is Doctor in Physics, IBM winner of young researcher in 1990, today senior expert at nuclear center research working since 1992 on statistical research about stock market as put here http://www.canal-u.education.fr/canalu/affiche_auteurs.php?programme_id=351.
And if it is not enough for you I will translate Peter Berstein - the famous hedge fund manager and author of the history of modern wall street - who also illustrates the problem of distinguishing between talent and chance with this persistance of chance law. In his own word it is very difficult and he remarked that this law is counter-intuitive (see below not to be confounded with tail phenomena of a distribution). I will do that this we because it is a bit long.
Let's explain again slowly little by little: if you had clicked on the reference link I had given you would have seen that it is not my theory but two studies from different economists reported in a doctorate thesis untitled "Financial market and modelisation of stock market's return" (translated from french title) who has even been financed by a special fund from the Government in fact). There was no reference to Chaos theory so that you totally invented what you wanted below.
As for Levy's law and persistence of chance used as argument, it is is also classics from academics, researchers and some hedge fund managers for example Jean Philippe Bouchaud in this online conference http://www.canal-u.education.fr/canalu/affiche_programme.php?vHtml=0&programme_id=351. Since you have tendancy to consider everybody as an idiot when you don't agree with him this guy is Doctor in Physics, IBM winner of young researcher in 1990, today senior expert at nuclear center research working since 1992 on statistical research about stock market as put here http://www.canal-u.education.fr/canalu/affiche_auteurs.php?programme_id=351.
And if it is not enough for you I will translate Peter Berstein - the famous hedge fund manager and author of the history of modern wall street - who also illustrates the problem of distinguishing between talent and chance with this persistance of chance law. In his own word it is very difficult and he remarked that this law is counter-intuitive (see below not to be confounded with tail phenomena of a distribution). I will do that this we because it is a bit long.
I'm not talking about the tail of a random distribution. Since a few centuries this is well known by statisticians. Yes it can just be that you belong to such tail but Levy's law is more vicious than just the tail phenomena and it is widely unknown. As I promised in above thread I will quote Peter Beinstein - so that I am more sure to be understood - who has an illustration of this law and I repeat what he said: it is counter-intuitive - whereas the tail phenomena is very intuitive. Taleb refers rather to the tail phenomena I don't need to since it is already well known.
This is a pretty good clue as to fact that you need to learn to follow the market and make your $ no matter what the market does, not try to predict. I'm talking like a real expert which I am not but repeating advice from successful traders.
Personally I think you will be back someday, stronger, better, etc. You will just wake up one day and say, "hey, wait a minute, now that I've been away from the trading I understand things a tad better, maybe I should have another go at it"
Quote from maxpi:
This is a pretty good clue as to fact that you need to learn to follow the market and make your $ no matter what the market does, not try to predict. I'm talking like a real expert which I am not but repeating advice from successful traders.
______________________________________
I disagree. YOU CAN accurately predict price movement!!!!
The REAL question is on what basis did you base your presupposition that the market should be rolling over?????
If indeed the basis of that analysis was flawed it doesnt mean that you give up on the idea. It just means you have to go back to the drawing board to figure out what you missed and why you missed it????
p.s. BE ENCOURAGED!!!!!!!!
Hang in there jbtrader;
I know exactly how you are feeling, been there done that. It is very easy to lose faith when things aren't going as planned. I moved from real estate to trading three years ago and honestly speaking real estate was way easier. That being said I like the total flexibility trading ads to my lifestyle. Last winter I spent in Panama trading in off my balcony in 90 degrees of weather in January, I couldn't have done that in real estate. Although my trading lately has been well, it certainly has its rough spots. I find that when you have a losing streak it is very easy to second guess yourself and lose your self esteem. When this happens I cease my trading immediately to preserve capital. If you are just experiencing a losing streak, quit trading for a while and take a break (the markets will always be there). Start the vending machine business for a while, try it out and see if you like it (i am thinking of dabbling in real estate again to have additional income - I think too many traders here concentrate solely on the markets and become 'hypnotized' by them) Then maybe in the future come back into trading with a fresh head and outlook. Try papertrading and maybe alter your strategy or look for a mentor who has a solid track record. Anyways that's my 2 cents. Good Luck in your future endeavors jb
I know exactly how you are feeling, been there done that. It is very easy to lose faith when things aren't going as planned. I moved from real estate to trading three years ago and honestly speaking real estate was way easier. That being said I like the total flexibility trading ads to my lifestyle. Last winter I spent in Panama trading in off my balcony in 90 degrees of weather in January, I couldn't have done that in real estate. Although my trading lately has been well, it certainly has its rough spots. I find that when you have a losing streak it is very easy to second guess yourself and lose your self esteem. When this happens I cease my trading immediately to preserve capital. If you are just experiencing a losing streak, quit trading for a while and take a break (the markets will always be there). Start the vending machine business for a while, try it out and see if you like it (i am thinking of dabbling in real estate again to have additional income - I think too many traders here concentrate solely on the markets and become 'hypnotized' by them) Then maybe in the future come back into trading with a fresh head and outlook. Try papertrading and maybe alter your strategy or look for a mentor who has a solid track record. Anyways that's my 2 cents. Good Luck in your future endeavors jb