When the boomers lose their pensions. That's when it will get violent.

[piezoe]

Quote from oldtime:

It always has to be about you doesn't it? It doesn't matter if it's you or all the other predictors out there, it only matters that someone gets it right.

Moses said the same thing when G-d called him, "Oh Lord, I'm not good at leading people."

Predict and predict boldly. If we all stick together, one of us will be right.

OK, I'll be bold, but if anything untoward should come from this, it's your fault. Here is my bold prediction: zdreg and denner will be so irritated by my posts that one of them will sooner or later label me with the "S" word.

 

[denner]

Quote from piezoe:

OK, I'll be bold, but if anything untoward should come from this, it's your fault. Here is my bold prediction: zdreg and denner will be so irritated by my posts that one of them will sooner or later label me with the "S" word.

No, I generally find your posts interesting. I'm really sort of mixed about where I feel gold MIGHT go in the next few months to year. In a way, I've been looking at it and figuring that stocks are overextended now since it's been languishing in recent months.

As for Oldtime..yes, I know that EVENTUALLY the Fed will raise rates, but I'm still irritated by 4-5 years of ZIRP. I think that it's an abomination, but so are many other aspects of the past few years.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from denner:

No, I generally find your posts interesting. I'm really sort of mixed about where I feel gold MIGHT go in the next few months to year. In a way, I've been looking at it and figuring that stocks are overextended now since it's been languishing in recent months.

As for Oldtime..yes, I know that EVENTUALLY the Fed will raise rates, but I'm still irritated by 4-5 years of ZIRP. I think that it's an abomination, but so are many other aspects of the past few years.

we've been kind of locked in a dollar prison. Dollar goes down, crude goes up, dollar goes down gold goes up, even dollar goes down stocks go up.

I think we are breaking out of that, at least as far as stocks go.

Like I said, nobody wants to do anything with the dollar in an election year, so we are finally starting to see what everything would be worth if we had a stable dollar.

Barring a war or supply disruption crude should also be stable around $100 and gold will probably not move one way or the other until the speculators are shaken out.

Stocks on the other hand are actually making real money and where else are you going to go?

 

[zdreg]

Quote from piezoe:

Zdreg, I can only refer you to my post above (just above Oldtime's). It explains my inability to predict the future with as much certainty as you guys can. I envy that ability of yours.

Why did I think gold was in a bubble? Silly me! Price looks perfectly flat!

http://screencast.com/t/ElgowiAwm7

your chart proves my point that gold is not in a bubble. gold is up 4X in 20 years which is a compound rate of 7.2% year.

 

[piezoe]

Quote from zdreg:

your chart proves my point that gold is not in a bubble. gold is up 4X in 20 years which is a compound rate of 7.2% year.

Are we looking at the same chart? I'm looking at this one.

http://screencast.com/t/ElgowiAwm7

What are you looking at?

I see little change in the average price over 14 years, and then a 350% increase in the last six years!

 

[zdreg]

Quote from piezoe:

Are we looking at the same chart? I'm looking at this one.

http://screencast.com/t/ElgowiAwm7

What are you looking at?

I see little change for 14 years, and then 150% increase in the last six years.

in 1992 it was about 400. in 2012 it was about 1600. again that's 7.2%/yr. compounded over 20years