When Should I sell my OIL ETF

J

john7722

Hello,

I am not a trader but I did a speculative trade when I bought oil ETF and some oil stock about 1.5y ago when oil crashed.
I was lucky to buy OXY,PE(PXD) EOG and COP .

When I was buying it I was hoping for oil to recover and I was planning to sell it when I double my money . I sold about 30% when oil hit around $90.

I don't want to hold oil long term as I invest mostly in SP500 as a long term investor.
So when I sell oil I would invest it into sp500 index.

At what price would you sell your oil stocks.
I am trying to time the oil market which I know nothing about.

Thank you for your help.
 
Last edited:
john7722 said:
Hello,

I am not a trader but I did a speculative trade when I bought oil ETF's about 1.5y ago when oil crashed.
I was lucky to buy OXY,PE(PXD) EOG and COP .

When I was buying it I was hoping for oil to recover and I was planning to sell it when I double my money . I sold about 30% when oil hit around $90.

I don't want to hold oil long term as I invest mostly in SP500 as a long term investor.
So when I sell oil I would invest it into sp500 index.

At what price would you sell your oil stocks.
I am trying to time the oil market which I know nothing about.

Thank you for your help.
More...

If you have these stocks, you should not immediately, sell them. The trend is up obviously, and you want to ride the trend of your stocks as long as it is intact. Oil has been going up due to increased demand worldwide. In addition, the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia, oil should continue going higher. That is just my opinion. Who knows what is going to happen next in the Ukraine war and Russia? Still, I use the StockCharts exclusively, to make decisions on when to exit my trades, and when to enter trades as well. Oil went up over $4 yesterday. I think you will make a good deal of monies. Just hang on for now. One alternative way to exit your positions, if you have a lot of shares is to sell it in batches. You sell 1/3 of your positions in the first batch, 1/3 after say, it runs up another $10-$20 and the last 1/3, you can still split up and sell half after the stock goes up another say, $10 and let the remaining half stay and ride it even higher. That way, you maximize your total potential gains.
 
How much correlation do you think there will be between oil futures and oil stocks that I mentioned?
50% is in PXD and the rest equally distrubuted in XLE,COP,HAL,BP ,EOGi think
Do you think that if oil drops 20% oil stocks drop about the same amount?
Thank you.
 
The million dollar question...if you have "enough", you can always unload 1/3 at levels of your choice and ride the rest.
Weekly chart of Crude with some levels to watch:

upload_2022-3-1_7-23-49.png
 
john7722 said:
How much correlation do you think there will be between oil futures and oil stocks that I mentioned?
50% is in PXD and the rest equally distrubuted in XLE,COP,HAL,BP ,EOGi think
Do you think that if oil drops 20% oil stocks drop about the same amount?
Thank you.
More...

Sorry, do not trade futures. Do not know its correlation to the oil stocks. My comments only refer to the oil stocks which are all trending up.
 
OXY P/E 22.5
XOM P/E 14.7
CVX P/E 18.8
COP P/E 15.9

AMZN P/E 47
NKE P/E 35
PG P/E 27
NVDA 61
TTD P/E 296

And most of the oil stocks pay a good dividend. Which group looks overvalued? I'd hold the oil stocks. Demand side should increase as covid restrictions loosen as a consequence of following the politics. Supply side artificially constrained as a consequence of really stupid "green" policy.
 
This is all my fault that OIL is going up. If you check my trading log, I had just sold covered & naked calls on all my Suncor and XEG holdings. Obviously Putin saw that, and decided to raise OIL.

I'm sorry guys, I didn't mean to spike oil.

That said, I originally bought the equities when tar-sands were under attack by Russian/Opec+ oil flooding at time of covid, boosted by dip-shit Biden's anti-western oil stance, backed by shit-lord insider-trading Pelosi. So let me say, it's their fault too, not just mine.
 
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