When scalping the ES which chart "time period type" do you use Tick, Range, Time or other?

[CALLumbus]

I'm asking more about what special inputs are you using that the machine does not have access to.
You don't ask the average swimmer to go compete with Phelps. No matter how hard they train, they can't beat him because he has certain advantages...
Right now, if you have a set of inputs that can be machine read. U feed it to a human and a machine. The machine can definitely do it without tiring and perform as well , if not better than the human.

Different input: multifactor vs single (or limited) factor, and different processing of the (already different) input.

I have a different opinion and experience with this than you. A computer will beat a human in a chess game, or in similar stuff with a limited set of fixed rules. But in a complex arena with thousands of different factors, all interacting with each other... I believe 100% that a computer cant match the human brain yet and will not for a very long time.

A very simple example: to pet somebody, caress with the hand, so it makes the other feel really good. No computer, no machine, no robot can do this the same way as a human hand. There are millions of neurons, motorunits, hormones, micronuances involved, all interconnected with each other. No computer can process stuff like this like the human brain.

Like I said, thats my belief and experience. If you have a different opinion, I accept this. We all have a different perception of reality. Basically, we all form our own reality. You see down, I see up. Thats great. Thats what makes a market.

 

[dozu888]

dozu888,

Do you please have any concrete documented evidence or even a poll from traders that humans have no more edge in trading the markets and machine learning is making all the money better then humans?

Please provide evidence with your comments. I would like you to please prove your comments.

so posts require documentation now? and your family livelihood depends on it? my hands are shaking now.

the industry stats are out there, 95% lose, 1% make enough to live on.. plus the fact that it gets more difficult when the frequency gets higher - slippage, commission... satisfied now?

by the way, by the same stats, roughly 95% of the stuff on ET, or the internet for that matter, is BS... what are you gonna do... documentation aint gonna help.

actually the most valuable stuff on ET or the internet, is the BS... that stuff really trains your sense of smell, pun intended, so that you can sift thru and find the truth.

this game is all about intelligence and counter intelligence and counter counter intelligence.. I show you smoke, you show me mirror... that's what the pros do... if you smell enough BS, you will find the truth, with some independent thinking.

I have posted else where about the BS stories they pushed so far this year, and I was able to take advantage and pick stuff for cheap.

 

[dozu888]

Different input: multifactor vs single (or limited) factor, and different processing of the (already different) input.

I have a different opinion and experience with this than you. A computer will beat a human in a chess game, or in similar stuff with a limited set of fixed rules. But in a complex arena with thousands of different factors, all interacting with each other... I believe 100% that a computer cant match the human brain yet and will not for a very long time.

A very simple example: to pet somebody, caress with the hand, so it makes the other feel really good. No computer, no machine, no robot can do this the same way as a human hand. There are millions of neurons, motorunits, hormones, micronuances involved, all interconnected with each other. No computer can process stuff like this like the human brain.

Like I said, thats my belief and experience. If you have a different opinion, I accept this. We all have a different perception of reality. Basically, we all form our own reality. You see down, I see up. Thats great. Thats what makes a market.

we are way beyond chess already... AlphaZero figured out the truth of chess, with 4 hours of self learning from scratch... it figured out the most complex game of Go... the google voice AI is indistinguishable from the other end.

yeah in the future the 'petting' job may just be the only thing humans can do, only because the recipient knows it's another human.... if done remotely, you won't be able to tell the difference.

these DOM stuff... it's really no big deal.. DeepMind just has bigger fish to fry at the moment.. and the Wall street guys are probably already doing it... perhaps some human traders are still making money... I know somebody trading like this too... but in my view the days are numbered... human brains will be no match.

 

[renko76]

price paints the chart realtime………..learn to read the promses made by the arrangements of the bar tips..….they reveal what is next super high percentage of the time.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Thanks CALLumbus,

You are asking what competitive advantage does a human have against algos ? The answer is: the human brain !

In my opinion, and my experience trying to program an algo: The problem is time and the many times of clicking backtest button. Every little change to increase the performance results leads to false predictive behavior of the algo. Another thing with algo is the time loss from starring at charts. I would spend hours programming and no time watching the live markets. I eventually return to mechanically intraday trading with the thought process and motto of "Everyday, lets make some money with my own brain, trade what I see and what I personal learn from and what I seen the past" In my opinion, algo trading was taking to long to get to the money.

How do you program yourself ? Practice, repetition, drill, and some more practice. Or we can just call it: shitloads of hard work. And thats exactly why most people cannot be (very) successful.

I agree. And what I learned is that preparation and controlling risk is very good. With one contract, I risk between $200-$300 per trade. On average its $200. The way I see it is, I see what the algos is doing by looking at the chart in real time everyday. I honestly do not care about the algos. They dont't pay me.

Most people are just lazy (especially in the long run). And even if some people give their best, there are always some others who maybe invest some 5% more effort than you. We live in a competitive world. Not everyone can become the president of the US, we need only one. Not everybody can become heavyweight boxing champion. And not everyone can become a high stake trader. 95% of traders fail. That might be true (it can be also 96% or 98%, but the message is: most fail), but it is the same for all other ambitious ventures humans try to achieve: 95% who try to become a fighter pilot fail. 95% of those who try to become president of the US fail, and so on.

In my opinon and my personal experience, most people fail at trading because they trade all their real money away before learning to trade.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

SimpleMeLike, thank you for your kind words.

Good points you make here. What I like very much, what I think is VERY important and many people have big problems with: to be honest with yourself. People have already difficulties to be honest with other people. But to be honest with them themselves seems to be almost impossible for many. But what does it mean, to be honest with yourself ? It is just the objective analysis of your current situation, be it your trading, your fitness, your job... . And without objective evaluation of the status quo, how do you go from there ? How can you improve, how can you plan the future if you dont even know the present state ?
So I think this is a very good and important point you made there.

Regarding your trading and your way to improvement, it sounds very systematic. This is a more analytical approach to trading, and it might work if you are trading in a more systematic and analytical style. For those who want to fight in the microtrenches of ultrashorttem trading/ scalping, this might not be the best path to improvement. The nuances, the signals of the market on this microlevel are so fine and interconnected, that it is very hard to quantify them in an objective way (which is one of the reasons why there is no handbook to successful scalping, not even in the top prop firms). Can you teach a juggler how juggle with his knifes, just by giving him a book to read with instructions like: when knife A comes down, try to catch it carefully, while at the same time throwing knife B in the air with the other hand and at the same time watch knife C with your right and knife D with your left eye... No, it would not work like that. A juggler has to be actually engaged in juggling, only that way he will program his brain to be able to... juggle Same for a formula 1 driver. And same for a (very shortterm) trader. And like with juggling and with race driving: the more you practice it, the faster you will progress.

Thats one of the reasons why prop firms have countless drills that bring their traders into interaction with the market. Some of these drills seem to make absolutely no sense (like: open a position every 5 minutes and manage it from there, or: make 100 trades this day try to close as many of them with 1 tick profit as possible...). These drills are not meant to be profitable trading strategies. The sense of these drill is only one thing: to bring the traders into as much interaction with the market as possible, as often as possible. Because this interaction, this engagement in the market is what will create the neural pathways in your brain, the pathways that will make you see and understand things that many other traders are not even aware of.

Thanks CALLumbus

Regarding your trading and your way to improvement, it sounds very systematic. This is a more analytical approach to trading, and it might work if you are trading in a more systematic and analytical style.

My style is a bit of everything: systematic and experience, but most importantly I like to "get aboard the trend of the moment and choose my stop loss and profit target"

I just want to take the trade and management it. That's my job. My job is to analyze the situation, wait for the price to move in a direction, make some money when it moves.

It's really just that simple. When i am in a trade, managing it is the upmost importance. I use my predictive price analysis to guess where I think price will stop and price may go the other way, then I exit for a profit. If I am wrong, then I get stopped out. But If get stopped out, and price turns in my original favor, then I put the stop loss in the wrong spot.

I just think it comes with practice. I picked a timeframe and sticking with and taking and managing trades and I am watching and questioning everything. Why did price stop there? ohhhhh, because of that trendline from yesterday. ohhhhh because that was high of day yesterday, so sellers take money. Well if price get about this level again, i want some of this money too. While I am waiting, lets see where I wanna be short at.

That's it. Everyday, the question is: where do I want to be short and where do I want to be long.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

but in my view the days are numbered... human brains will be no match.

dozu888, good point:

The human brain will always and forever out perform the AI. Why? Because its a human brain that programs the AI.

I put to you like this.

If it was a decision between investing my retirement money in a AI trading system or SP 500 index. I am going with the index every single time.

 

[dozu888]

dozu888, good point:

The human brain will always and forever out perform the AI. Why? Because its a human brain that programs the AI.

I put to you like this.

If it was a decision between investing my retirement money in a AI trading system or SP 500 index. I am going with the index every single time.

AI deep learning is not just programming. It's more about having the data and the computing power to grow the neural network. Check out AlphaZero, where the Zero means 'start from scratch'.. it became the strongest chess player in 4 hours...the strongest Go player in days. After KeJie (world #1) lost, he made this comment - 'humans are so unnecessary'.

Besides games, AI is already doing better than human in many areas - medical diagnosis, facial recognition, voice recognition, to name a few... agents are already used in the business world as human assistance (for now)... self driving car is another example.

And this type of thing usually advances exponentially.

DeepMind just has bigger fish to fry now in medical and weather research.

this is the 3rd inning... the general public has no idea what is coming... buy every share of FAAMG now and hold on to them.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

buy every share of FAAMG now and hold on to them.

Thanks dozu888,

I can not locate FAAMG stock, what is this stock?

 

[dozu888]

facebook apple amazon microsoft google.

this is a race of data and these guys have the data... and small guys can't compete... that's why we are seeing the QQQ getting more top heavy.

China has the BAT - Bidu Alibaba Tencent... they are right behind the US..