when is this market going to top?

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

setting up for a dip imo

You can also observe the pattern of 2 hard selling days to close the month, then the "drift" returns. Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan...same thing.

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

A friend of mine bought into this market in 2008 and watched his portfolio sink right into 2009...held on a bit and rode it back up selling for break even some years later....didn't make another trade since....he just told me he is going long the s&p 500 index, I said you do what you got to do....I said buy all the s&p 500 you can buy....hopefully he can grab another 250%+ in the next 8 years just like the last 250% gain from the bottom of 2009 into 2017!!!! Nothing but free money.....zero risk all reward all the time.....

Yes, same thing. I've heard from a few people (either opening accounts) or just going "all in" within the past few weeks. Updates throughout the week about how much they are up.

It certainly feels like the offloading is happening, but at the same time we've seen that any meaningful attempt at a correction is aborted and some more "happy talk" is put to work to stop even minor corrections at this point. The two biggest decliners last year happened in the middle of the night. By the next day, you'd never even know a damn thing happened if you didn't have 24 hr data. The morning after Brexit, the ES bid what 60 handles higher in the first hour? before putting in that Monday low.

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

Since they always came back higher they were technically not "tops"?

Cool, so by this definition if/when the Nikkei takes out 39000, we can also call it "not a top".

 

[water7]

this market rally is not that unusual, it happened in the past
if you check yearly time frame, we are having the same angle, repeating pattern and all

top calling in a bull market doesn't make sense, imo

 

[comagnum]

Think this bull is over extended? The public has not even shown up yet.

 

[Money Trust]

Dennis Gartmann has said that the market is going to continue higher, so we may be close.

 

[Mtrader]

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[ironchef]

Cool, so by this definition if/when the Nikkei takes out 39000, we can also call it "not a top".

Nikkei just has a longer correction cycle.

Seems to me a top should mean it will never come back to the same high again, like the price of beanie babies, Enron stocks, tulips....?

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

Nikkei just has a longer correction cycle.

Seems to me a top should mean it will never come back to the same high again, like the price of beanie babies, Enron stocks, tulips....?

I see your point, I just don't think that it's completely practical. Maybe a "trade-able top", but one that after many years may eventually be breached (inflation, currency debasement, etc, etc).

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I'll chime in when the the top has been made
.