when is this market going to top?

[tommcginnis]

... I could find the same bearish candlesticks everywhere that were not bearish and vice versa for bullish ones....

Nope -- you weren't missing anything: no real magic to the much-hyped candlesticks.

1) Candles only represent 4 trades in whatever time period is defined for them. In their development (some 4 centuries back), the candle break (an overnight) was meaningful. We violate that (all the time!!!) at our peril.

2) For the market action presented, you can tell a useful time period when market turns are characterized by long wicks in the ending trend's direction. (Thus, the market "tried" to persist with the trend, but could not.)

3) Size of the body represents intra-candle trend all by itself!
Bigger candle body = stronger intra-candle trend.
Tight little sliver-body = weak-ass intra-candle trend.

That is *it*.
If you have a *meaningful* time period, wicks == turns; bodies == strength.

 

[ironchef]

Nope -- you weren't missing anything: no real magic to the much hyped candlesticks.

1) Candles only represent 4 trades in whatever time period is defined for them. In their development (some 4 centuries back), the candle break (an overnight) was meaningful. We violate that (all the time!!!) at our peril.

2) For the market action presented, you can tell a useful time period when market turns are characterized by long wicks in the ending trend's direction. (Thus, the market "tried" to persist with the trend, but could not.)

3) Size of the body represents intra-candle trend all by itself!
Bigger candle body = stronger intra-candle trend.
Tight little sliver-body = weak-ass intra-candle trend.

That is *it*.
If you have a *meaningful* time period, wicks == turns; bodies == strength.

Thank you for the explanation. So my original question: Would a long monthly red body or a long upper wick represent a monthly bearish signal if not what does?

 

[tommcginnis]

Thank you for the explanation. So my original question: Would a long monthly red body or a long upper wick represent a monthly bearish signal if not what does?

In increasing likelihood, I'd go with:

A long red candle body,
A long top-side wick with a red candle body,
A long top-side wick with a green candle body....
An inverted doji (no candle body, open and close are ≈ same).



Ewww. Did I just write "doji"?? Eeeks.

 

[murray t turtle]

Thank you for taking the time to answer my post. I read a lot of books on candlestick charting and about indicators using candlesticks but when I looked at candlestick charts I just could not make sense out of the "indicators". I could find the same bearish candlesticks everywhere that were not bearish and vice versa for bullish ones. There must be something else I don't know about and that was why the question.

Regards,

%%
Here is some practical help, Iron Chief; first time some close candle price dips a day below 200 day moving average. I may or may not ignore that?? But like Alan Farley wrote '' bulls live above the 200 day moving average, bears live below 200 day moving average'' -,daily candlecharts. I may enter on a 30 minute candle chart, but not before i check out 200 day moving average [200=average of trading days in a year/+]. 5 minute candles usually are just noise; even if some use them.

Past head of Fidelity equity[general Haggerty] trading, noted institutions may NOT admit to using 200 dma, but they do. I dont use 200 dma in a mindless mechanical sense ,some may do that with profit??

 

[ironchef]

In increasing likelihood, I'd go with:

A long red candle body,
A long top-side wick with a red candle body,
A long top-side wick with a green candle body....
An inverted doji (no candle body, open and close are ≈ same).



Ewww. Did I just write "doji"?? Eeeks.

Thank you. Intuitively, it actually makes sense!

 

[ironchef]

%%
Here is some practical help, Iron Chief; first time some close candle price dips a day below 200 day moving average. I may or may not ignore that?? But like Alan Farley wrote '' bulls live above the 200 day moving average, bears live below 200 day moving average'' -,daily candlecharts. I may enter on a 30 minute candle chart, but not before i check out 200 day moving average [200=average of trading days in a year/+]. 5 minute candles usually are just noise; even if some use them.

Past head of Fidelity equity[general Haggerty] trading, noted institutions may NOT admit to using 200 dma, but they do. I dont use 200 dma in a mindless mechanical sense ,some may do that with profit??

Thanks.

 

[murray t turtle]

Uncharted territories in this market only mean buy buy buy, right??.....its funny how no one wanted stocks in 2008 and 2009 when you could have bought just about anything 70-90% off from highs and now everyone is running and buying as if stocks are going to run up hundreds of percent more over the next 8 years!!!

%%
Well IBD[investors.com] has buy volume [ weekly+ daily] trending down on SPY;
so some are not. NOT a prediction.

 

[murray t turtle]

Thanks.

%%
Sure; Ironchief. Put it simple. The forest is much more important than any tree. A black walnut tree may mean much , but even that is NOt much ,compared to a forest of black walnut trees. Same way with a daily candle. Did you see that monthly S& P derivative candle chart post here?? Its real extended, may get a bit more extended?? SPY buy volume/ 50 dma is trending down[ IBD, investors.com, weekly+ daily]

 

[tommcginnis]

%%
Well IBD[investors.com] has buy volume [ weekly+ daily] trending down on SPY;
so some are not. NOT a prediction.

Haven't defined "top" yet.

I don't suppose there'd be any use in asking for a definition of "buy" volume....?

 

[S2007S]

Markets are literally immune to any downside.... The Dow is up 10 days in a row!!!!

Now if the Dow were down 10 days in a row and it was off 2000+ points since the election the fed would have cut rates to 0% and pumped the markets with more QE.....zero risk.....alll the time!