When Indicators Don't Lag

[dbphoenix]

That's exactly what you are being provided with, discretionary decision based on certain conditions, do you really think we are naive to trade any divergence? Don't worry about fine print, we both like what we are seeing based on our personal experiences. Assume going in with a market order and stops will be below current lows of the chart being traded, will update you in due course. You may like complexity in trade decision making, I like to keep it KISS as much as possible, I think B1 too.

No, it is not "exactly what [I am] being provided with".

I'll try again.

"I remember something along the lines of 'go long crude'. When? At what price? Are you buying Sunday night? Monday morning? What price are you using for your entry stop? Or are you entering at the market?"

You said you saw a divergence. So, are you going to buy tomorrow nite or Monday morning? If a market order, the price doesn't matter.

As for whether or not you are naive enough to trade any divergence, I have no idea. I don't know what your criteria are. But to say Oh no I wouldn't have taken that is disingenuous. I see nothing complicated about I'm going to enter CL with a market order at Sunday's open with a stop at the current swing low on the weekly chart (i.e., 44). Or whatever.

 

[SunTrader]

... If you reach these high profits your win rate will be high.

You have trouble comprehending.

High profits mean just that ... profits are high.

Regardless of win rate.

Win rate, just so you know is how many times you errr win as opposed to how many times you errr lose.

1st example - win 90% means you lost 10% of the time, 2nd example if you didn't get the basic first one - win 40% of the time means you lost 60% of the time.

Also high profits can be relative. What is high for me might not be for someone else. But again "high" profits have nothing to do with whether it was done with a high win rate or not.

High profits almost always means low win rate and vice versa.

Got it?

I'll take that over a high win rate every time.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

That's exactly what you are being provided with, discretionary decision based on certain conditions, do you really think we are naive to trade any divergence? Don't worry about fine print, we both like what we are seeing based on our personal experiences. Assume going in with a market order and stops will be below current lows of the chart being traded, will update you in due course. You may like complexity in trade decision making, I like to keep it KISS as much as possible, I think B1 too.

That is correct. Simple is good. When trades are called, they are called in real time with realtime stops etc. --Your posting in your journal shows this as you also post losers. You are more transparent than nearly everyone here at the ranch. --Side note--I have seen calls made by others that were just pictures of charts with guidance to fill in the blanks. --not useful.

 

[dbphoenix]

Also high profits can be relative. What is high for me might not be for someone else. But again "high" profits have nothing to do with whether it was done with a high win rate or not.

High profits almost always means low win rate and vice versa.

Got it?

I'll take that over a high win rate every time.

Technically you are correct that a high P:L ratio has nothing to do with a high winrate. But you are incorrect that "high profits almost always means low win rate and vice versa". A high winrate is essentially a function of how the entry is managed. A high P:L ratio, however, has to do with how the trade itself is managed once one is safely out of the gate. These are two entirely different aspects of the trading plan, assuming one has a thorough trading plan. Thus one can have

1. a high winrate and a high P:L

2. a low winrate and a high P:L

3. a high winrate and a low P:L or

4. a low winrate and a low P:L

none of which have anything to do with each other.

Theoretically, one can have a low winrate and a high P:L. Psychologically this is next to impossible.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

High profits almost always means low win rate and vice versa.

Got it?

I'll take that over a high win rate every time.

I will too

 

[SunTrader]

...

Theoretically, one can have a low winrate and a high P:L. Psychologically this is next to impossible.

Same applies to #1

If we are talking about more than a couple of trades someone getting on a roll with.

 

[dbphoenix]

Same applies to #1

If we are talking about more than a couple of trades someone getting on a roll with.

I don't know what you mean by "getting on a roll with", but psychologically, if that's what you're referring to, #1 is far more likely than #2.

 

[SunTrader]

I don't know what you mean by "getting on a roll with", but psychologically, if that's what you're referring to, #1 is far more likely than #2.

Somebody getting on a roll winning 9 out of 10 (obviously 90% win rate) in a relatively short amount of time for big profits.

Someone doing the same 90% win rate for big profits over a relatively long period of time for big profits is IMO unreal.

 

[romik]

SunTrader, I have a feeling these guys have a high win rate going for reward equal to stop loss and also they scale out of trades. I can do that too, but I choose not to.

 

[dbphoenix]

Somebody getting on a roll winning 9 out of 10 (obviously 90% win rate) in a relatively short amount of time for big profits.

Someone doing the same 90% win rate for big profits over a relatively long period of time for big profits is IMO unreal.

You're making assumptions that are not inherent in a high winrate. For one thing, "big" is a matter of interpretation. One can have a 90% winrate with a 1t loss and a 9t win. But 9t are hardly anything on which one could retire. When translated to money, a 90% winrate can mean bupkus.

As for whether or not maintaining such a winrate over a relatively long period of time is unreal, perhaps. But the winrate needn't be 90%. There's a long stretch of road between 30% and 90%.