When Genius Failed

Quote from SiSePuede!:

1. So it didn't really say anything about funds making a killing in the book? It only pointed out that funds were offering deliberately lower prices or even just totally shying away from positions they knew LTCM was trying to unload because they knew that even if they picked up a position cheap, it was illiquid.

2. I think calling that a win is childish. They may have escaped with little infraction, but defaulting on debt isn't victory. Imagine how much pain that caused within the Russian government and to Russian people.

I don't think that your argument holds water. Money can of course disappear. If a currency just totally collapses and a country defaults on debt? That isn't money essentially disappearing?

1. I believe it did, but I don't have a copy in front of me at the moment. I specifically remember the author refering to John commenting on "the sharks of wall st smelling blood" or something like that. Commodities are zero sum, there's no way around it. ANY position that they lost on, someone else gained on.

2. I didn't state or even imply that it was good for the country or the people of the country (or at least, I didn't mean to). I assumed that this was a discussion about money. Russia issued the bonds (IOU's) and never repaid them. That's the simplest form, whether that was detrimental to it's people or not, isn't being debated by me. I'm just saying they made money on that deal.

Let's think of this another way. EVERY stock, bond, future, house, baseball card or other financial vehicle is simply a transaction of money trading hands. Someone buys, someone sells. The amount of money (let's forget transaction costs for the moment) is the exactly the same on both ends. How then can the amount of money EVER change?

No, when a currency collapses the relative value of it's money compared to the rest of the world's currencies decreases. The money supply itself is still the same, the value simply shifts from that currency to others.

I concede one thing. Yes, money can dissappear, but the only way I can think of right now is by bank runs. Then the money created by fractional reserve banking or fiat banking can dissappear, but only because they created it in the first place.

TNG
 
Value is value, people’s perception of value might change, but still value is value.

There are two sources for money supply growth. Banks and the Central bank. People’s perception affects the first source more than the second.

In real value is only destroyed if it’s destroyed physically.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from jack hershey:

...100 years of terrorist incubation brings fantasitc improvement once the guys who are having "the best trading day of my life" get finished removing and rebuilding what once was a nest for creating terroists.

There are patsies all over the place allowing the messes; they aren't breaking anything. They aren't fixing anything.

You think fiancial industry derivatives "evaporation" is whatever. sudden or othewise.

What it is is: "the best trading day of my life". And those profits you think evaporated are there and, in my case and for others like me, we just dump the money into solving community or regional or national or international problems. I trade leveraged. Why? I get more condensation.

We need a "create a derivative week" every month. Some us do pool extraction by price change all of the time. It is taken OUT of the market. And it is PUT into something else more useful.

There is nothing to fix and no one is breaking anything.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Jack - I am a big fan of yours - but this post sounded like you are on acid - are you ok?

My comments drew some other downside comments as well.

Conicidentally I did write speech copy at EOP...lol....

The dialogue here seemed to have a limite "persistence" character, so I wanted to bridge that.

We all, later, after my post, found out that the OP and others are really big risk takers. I am very very risk adverse so I do not deal with getting in trouble, ever.

The theme of the thread is incidents and if incidents can have effects. I do the Alexander's Method thing for anything important. As a consequence, I look at the least connectness of incidents and all economic and econometric structures

I pointed out that incidents have the greatest money making potential short term, intermediate term and long term.

Here the focus is on having risk in intermediate term and seeing only the intermediate term downside of an incident. Even the related fear, anixety and anger showed when my coments were addressed.

I chatted with two programmer friends, yesterday and we looked at page 108 (two nice prizes for writng up a couple od solutions related to incident damage; we looked at ASEAN Foundations's appointment ad on page 104 that relates to the OP topic and how to do the admin on an incident. We chatted about the first ad in the mag (Economist 16JUN07) on page 23.

Working and writing white papers for three admins at EOP makes this theme deja vu for me.

Nowadays, NGO's get the consequences of incidents solved. there are many under way of various proportions. It is daring to imagine what the globe would be like without all of these underway and growing.

My point was, that to deal, a person or team has to be adult. It is the responsibility of people to take care of others. If a person is freaked out and investing at very high risk, then he is on the crappy side of incidents.


For me, I am always leaning forward with goods, srvices and funds for victims of incidents and I approach other matters that cause incidents from an orientation towards eliminating the causes.

Take money for example, it is a tool and a lot of it needs to be made available for appropriate use at the right ime. this year was a good time to put a million bucks into road building. it get food to the right place at the right time. That is 20,000 ES ticks. Greenspoon does 24,000 contracts a day at a net of less than a tick. So a million dollars of road building is 1 days work for him.

I'm automated on the ES; I can't imagine less than one tick a trade per contract. One portion of logic on the program simply adds 1, 2, or 3 ticks to each end of a turn for me.

Incidents for people like me are the greatest opportunities to bank really high money velocity profits. That capital can easily be transferred to victims of incidents. Dumb investors and money managers are NOT victims.

Now I expect our autoamtion to be applied to 25 exchanges in the near term. for me trading is automated and 24/7 and the sun never sets on pool extraction from the derivatives out there. when the market is closed we are liquid. when its open we are on the right side and optimizing the extraction until we pop out on market orders at very frequent partial fill rates determined automatically. Arbitraging to the EMH tune is fixing leaks. So is sitting on the wrong side o the market betting. There is no requirement whatsoever to use probabilistic mathematics ever. there is no requirement to ever use anything other than binary data set element for monitoring to assure that you know you know (See info gap theory particularly the contraction side as opposed to the nestiung side).

I am a little ahead on my writing so I am on a break. The last copy is due tomorrow..

In this thead there are a bunch of people who bet.

They bet on predictions.

They sit in a market that they do not monitor to know that they know.

They like risk

They calculate how much they can lose and actually sit there in losing trades and lose what they calculated.

I stay in the market all the time, stay on the right side of the market and do reversals when the right side changes. On each reversal I take profits from the segment of price movement that just finished. It is all automated including annotations and signal and status displays. Greenspoon at Kingstreee keeps Steenbarger servicing him so he can do less than a tick for 24,000 contracts a day on 60 scalping trades. He only clears 2 or 3 million a year. It may be possible so of he posters here do better I can't tell. IF they aren't then incidents do not matter because they have nothing to lose to speak of and considering they are on the wrong side of the market by choice a lot of the time. And they hold when their one market is closed and the rest of the world may be doing incidents.

after I meet my writing deadline this Wednesday, I get to train for the rest of the week on getting pyschological and psychiatric benefits from the VA to the military who are coming back from extended and repeated tours. My job is to get people to put parallel services to that of the VA in place pronto, sufficiiently and of highest quality. Since we are training in SD, we will be at the expo as well.
Can anyone tell me what is going on here. Is Grob posting to himself?
 
Quote from Champion:

Can anyone tell me what is going on here. Is Grob posting to himself?

No idea but Jack's rhetorica Jack(shit) killed a perfectly interesting post with inane blather that was more steaming pile-of-shit than the last republican and democratic conventions put together. :D
 
Quote from Champion:

Can anyone tell me what is going on here. Is Grob posting to himself?

Jack is such a pleasure to read. His posts on this tread make a lot of sense.

Obviously the world needs to be prepared for what comes next, Jack it turns out is handing out the building blocks. HBIMH so many times pulling out anything of value for me to see.

Who doesn’t want to stay in the market all the time and always stay on the right side of the market? Reversals I do in some markets..
 
Quote from Champion:

Can anyone tell me what is going on here. Is Grob posting to himself?

sometimes I copy material so it is handy to anyone reading my response to the material.

In this case I copied: 1. a statament I made to a person x, 2. x's response to that statement. Then I posted a further comment to x.

As you see x doen't understand my viewpoint and he is classifying it in his classification system.

I do pool extraction. For me, trading is simply taking all that is offered all the time.

I do use a Lego approach as well. Think of Lego's as building blocks that have just two outputs. Binary. And they are time based so they are vectors. They have direction and magnitude.

I do not hold overnight in my intraday trading. So at black swan time, I am cremeing the market simply because I only have as many contracts running as the market can bear.

If the market is doing blocks of 100 contracts and I have 250, I use an approach (think of a pile of Lego's) that scales my reversals at precise turning points a given partial fill at a time all based on the 100 the market is doing on T&S, the DOM and on OTR tick volume. Turning 250 is a five partial fill turn, obviously.

During a black swan there are many many turns caused by other's predictions and reactions. Basically, on a day like the 27FEB07 we all got to see no liquidity for a while. It was just a case of liquidity being provided to me by first the units guys blowing out on margin calls, then the tens guys being blown out by margin calls, then it got interesting, the hundreds guys knew how wise it is to play to stay for another day.

The camtasia and the audio we did was unbelievable and astonishing. what made it so terrific was seeing people finsihing their careers as others were, as I said, having the best day of their lives.

Money was changing hands quite rapidly on very low liquidity. Accounts were just being cleaned out of one sort or another in a particualr order (small to large as usual).

SSp thinks as do 95% of the public (whether Dems or Reps, lol); ssp is on the opposite side of the swan than I.

No matter the example, there is the consideration of who wins and who loses and afterwards what is going to be happening.

Bonds provide tangible applications of money. The application is owned by someone and that is still there. So is a home and it still has the same replacement value.

Those many many people who closed their trading accounts on the 27th for me and the SCT traders, can still watch their money being traded by us if they wish. It takes 10 unit traders to make one tens account. It takes 10 ten's traders to make a hundreds account. So since there was no liquidity on the 27th, many many small traders had to have margin calls so my cars could be used to take profits at each and every opportunity I needed to extract.

At the trader's Expo, they had some live trading under the Moderation of Charles Shaap. two guys were trading, one was competing with the other and the other was taking money out of the market. fortunately I got there late and had to sit on the floor just in front of one screen.

At 9:26 or so san dieago time it was a short (point 1 going to point 2). A spike (odd harmonic) presented point 2 and it was long time to point 3. (level 3 channel). next we had the FTT at about 1515 and it ook off to the RTL and the beginning of a long Gaussian at the RTL.

The Live Trading Challenge was over. the guy nearst me on the stage stayed on sidelines for point 1 to point2 to point 3 ot the FTT wher upon he punched in a short trade at 1514.1 and placed a stop @ 1520.1.

His non competing opponent took four trades as did I. Since we know each other by first name I moosied over afterwards to have a laugh with him.


In the middle of the trading, I asked the competitor guy next to me if he was a trader half way through the presentation. he said he was, So I said which side are you on now. I knew his opponent and I were in and short at the moment. He replied he was flat and looking for THE entry. then he explained what "being flat" meant.

Near the end he go stopped out at the top of the dip as BO occurred on the RTL of the level 3 short channel. He had gone short on the FTT that started the long within 1 tick of the ftt down spike. He made two calls: and entry and a stop that were perfectly opposite of what to do.

He was the head man of a trading outfit. So was the other guy trading live who nailed four trades.

After it was over a lot of people talked to one of these two people.

Trading the markets in a better way just means you are making money on black swans when they pop into the picutre.. some pople do and love it and others are most always freaked out be the markets.

One guy predicted and reacted And lost and got stopped out. the other guy dod what is inbetween predicting and reacting: anticipation.

If you are at point one at 9:26, you are in and gong to point 2. If you know point 2 is coming you know that so is point 3 and so is the FTT and so is the BO and the first DOM trav on the new trend which is going to point 2 which id going to point3 which is going to FTT which is going to BO which is going to point 1, etc.

If there is a swan, then it is on a Dominant leg....lol.....

what I am talkingabout is making money when there is money to be made...like all of the time........
 
Quote from jack hershey:

sometimes I copy material so it is handy to anyone reading my response to the material.

In this case I copied: 1. a statament I made to a person x, 2. x's response to that statement. Then I posted a further comment to x.

As you see x doen't understand my viewpoint and he is classifying it in his classification system.

I do pool extraction. For me, trading is simply taking all that is offered all the time.

I do use a Lego approach as well. Think of Lego's as building blocks that have just two outputs. Binary. And they are time based so they are vectors. They have direction and magnitude.

I do not hold overnight in my intraday trading. So at black swan time, I am cremeing the market simply because I only have as many contracts running as the market can bear.

If the market is doing blocks of 100 contracts and I have 250, I use an approach (think of a pile of Lego's) that scales my reversals at precise turning points a given partial fill at a time all based on the 100 the market is doing on T&S, the DOM and on OTR tick volume. Turning 250 is a five partial fill turn, obviously.

During a black swan there are many many turns caused by other's predictions and reactions. Basically, on a day like the 27FEB07 we all got to see no liquidity for a while. It was just a case of liquidity being provided to me by first the units guys blowing out on margin calls, then the tens guys being blown out by margin calls, then it got interesting, the hundreds guys knew how wise it is to play to stay for another day.

The camtasia and the audio we did was unbelievable and astonishing. what made it so terrific was seeing people finsihing their careers as others were, as I said, having the best day of their lives.

Money was changing hands quite rapidly on very low liquidity. Accounts were just being cleaned out of one sort or another in a particualr order (small to large as usual).

SSp thinks as do 95% of the public (whether Dems or Reps, lol); ssp is on the opposite side of the swan than I.

No matter the example, there is the consideration of who wins and who loses and afterwards what is going to be happening.

Bonds provide tangible applications of money. The application is owned by someone and that is still there. So is a home and it still has the same replacement value.

Those many many people who closed their trading accounts on the 27th for me and the SCT traders, can still watch their money being traded by us if they wish. It takes 10 unit traders to make one tens account. It takes 10 ten's traders to make a hundreds account. So since there was no liquidity on the 27th, many many small traders had to have margin calls so my cars could be used to take profits at each and every opportunity I needed to extract.

At the trader's Expo, they had some live trading under the Moderation of Charles Shaap. two guys were trading, one was competing with the other and the other was taking money out of the market. fortunately I got there late and had to sit on the floor just in front of one screen.

At 9:26 or so san dieago time it was a short (point 1 going to point 2). A spike (odd harmonic) presented point 2 and it was long time to point 3. (level 3 channel). next we had the FTT at about 1515 and it ook off to the RTL and the beginning of a long Gaussian at the RTL.

The Live Trading Challenge was over. the guy nearst me on the stage stayed on sidelines for point 1 to point2 to point 3 ot the FTT wher upon he punched in a short trade at 1514.1 and placed a stop @ 1520.1.

His non competing opponent took four trades as did I. Since we know each other by first name I moosied over afterwards to have a laugh with him.


In the middle of the trading, I asked the competitor guy next to me if he was a trader half way through the presentation. he said he was, So I said which side are you on now. I knew his opponent and I were in and short at the moment. He replied he was flat and looking for THE entry. then he explained what "being flat" meant.

Near the end he go stopped out at the top of the dip as BO occurred on the RTL of the level 3 short channel. He had gone short on the FTT that started the long within 1 tick of the ftt down spike. He made two calls: and entry and a stop that were perfectly opposite of what to do.

He was the head man of a trading outfit. So was the other guy trading live who nailed four trades.

After it was over a lot of people talked to one of these two people.

Trading the markets in a better way just means you are making money on black swans when they pop into the picutre.. some pople do and love it and others are most always freaked out be the markets.

One guy predicted and reacted And lost and got stopped out. the other guy dod what is inbetween predicting and reacting: anticipation.

If you are at point one at 9:26, you are in and gong to point 2. If you know point 2 is coming you know that so is point 3 and so is the FTT and so is the BO and the first DOM trav on the new trend which is going to point 2 which id going to point3 which is going to FTT which is going to BO which is going to point 1, etc.

If there is a swan, then it is on a Dominant leg....lol.....

what I am talkingabout is making money when there is money to be made...like all of the time........
Thank you. It is kind of you to explain. To be honest, if you haven't been called kind before on ET, you are a kind person. I agree with you and work buying-upswings-selling-downswings as a continuum that being the best mode to exploit market sessions fully from open to EOD.
 
Quote from jack hershey:


I do use a Lego approach as well. Think of Lego's as building blocks that have just two outputs. Binary. And they are time based so they are vectors. They have direction and magnitude.

Jack,

Vectors do have direction and magnitude, but since when are they time based?

Recently you wrote that you're fully automated. When are you going to show us the code? Pay-it-forward as you're wont to do.
 
Quote from trader225:

Jack,

Vectors do have direction and magnitude, but since when are they time based?

Some traders focus on price change for making money. They may also focus on being on the right side of the market.

So a vector that is important to me is price magnitude and direction and I just use a standard interval of time to measure price change (magnitude) and it's direction (long or short).

Another element of my data set is the MODE of the market. What is the vector here? For me it is continue or change. I measure the continue as a pace and I do the same for change. Pace is related to the strength of the markets for me. Pace is how much the market can handle as it continues or as it changes.
I measure these two items with respect to time. One aspect of change I mentioned: that is, doing partial fills around a turn. Each is separated in time and there is a magnitude for each slug that goes through.


Recently you wrote that you're fully automated. When are you going to show us the code? Pay-it-forward as you're wont to do.

Many people have posted on this in several places where snippets or script is kept. So it is around in these places as pieces. I hope you are using the stuff that has been passed forward. I, personally, am not allowed to do code. I have heard that beta testing on displays is starting in July. People generally "come to us" regarding this kind of stuff; we do not push this kind of stuff.

As far as showing what is possible or activities going on, I think we are shooting for the next Expo. The Expo is commercially oriented so there are issues to be part of it as an amateur.

Doing PVT and SCT as an amateur is best done by learning it in my opinion. It is always a good idea, also, to be able to understand completely what is going on at any time. That is where being mechanical, as well, comes into play. People who have that interest can do this kind of support for their trading and learn in the process.

If a person is using a conventional orthodoxy orientation to get some mechanical PVT or SCT stuff together it will not work out for them. There are many examples of how this fails in ET.

It is really unpleasant thinking of how any formal aspects of this would go. I am glad to see that some people have done the snippets and scripts. many others have speny years absolutely demonstrating they cannot do coding for checking out PVT and SCT.

 
Back
Top