When does the next QE start?

[M.W.]

Your recipe is straight out of Marx's book. If you honestly think that a human will be caring for the old and sick in 10-15 years then you really don't understand the state of innovation we have achieved. What we need in 10-15 years is lots of data scientists, technical designers and architects. Even programmers will lose their jobs in a short few years. But no problem, according to you they can easily find a job mopping the floor of automated factory floors.

In case you have slept, chatgpt and its derivatives will within the next two or three years completely displace any and all editors, journalists, writers, translators,...but hey... They can always become YouTubers right?

This is nonsense. Really. Automation during the 20th century eliminated entire huge job categories and descriptions. Telephone operators, mechanical draftsmen, miners, assembly-line workers and shipbuilders have all been replaced by machines or software. Not to mention farming, where one guy today does the work of hundreds from a century ago. And this all happened during a time when women were entering formal work, boosting the labor participation rate (and thus labor supply) by 50% or more. Yet unemployment today is at historic lows.

The market is more adaptable than you think, the universe of human consumer demand is broader than you think, and 'jobs' are much more social and political constructions than you think. 150 years ago a 'job' was 80 hours per week on the factory floor, now it's down to 40 in your pajamas with Netflix on in the background. 9-to-5 can become 9-to-noon, or Monday-Friday can become Monday-Wednesday. The government can require that companies hire 20% of the population as diversity consultants or whatever. And then, given aging demographics in rich countries, there will definitely be huge numbers of jobs created in the coming decades to care for old and sick people.

 

[Zwaen]

Dream on, are you remotely suggesting the average Joe to pick up coding? Seriously? Most can't even hold their life together without alcohol and other drugs, let alone hold a steady job that requires more than an IQ of 100.

You sound a bit like this Jordan Peterson guy I highly doubt coding will be a skill in the future. Certainly when most people learn it. It's a language, and a language won't give you a lot of extra 'skill'. Especially when everybody learns it, you need scarcity for something to be of high value. Think lowcode development. It's the added value, which is often more sophisticated which brings the extra dollars, and industries like trade, dominant systems (like dominant currencies) and ultimately art - in it's many manifestations.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Tell me how you go from 7-8% inflation to under 3-4%, forget 2%, in 12-18 months with 4m excess job openings without a recession?
Powell has been clear that they are willing to accept a recession to get inflation under control and they will HAVE to kill the job market to do that.

How much inflation in Canada the last 6 months of 2022 ? Let's call it a leading indicator.

 

[Nine_Ender]

This is nonsense. Really. Automation during the 20th century eliminated entire huge job categories and descriptions. Telephone operators, mechanical draftsmen, miners, assembly-line workers and shipbuilders have all been replaced by machines or software. Not to mention farming, where one guy today does the work of hundreds from a century ago. And this all happened during a time when women were entering formal work, boosting the labor participation rate (and thus labor supply) by 50% or more. Yet unemployment today is at historic lows.

The market is more adaptable than you think, the universe of human consumer demand is broader than you think, and 'jobs' are much more social and political constructions than you think. 150 years ago a 'job' was 80 hours per week on the factory floor, now it's down to 40 in your pajamas with Netflix on in the background. 9-to-5 can become 9-to-noon, or Monday-Friday can become Monday-Wednesday. The government can require that companies hire 20% of the population as diversity consultants or whatever. And then, given aging demographics in rich countries, there will definitely be huge numbers of jobs created in the coming decades to care for old and sick people.

Perhaps to a short obsessed trader all they can see is the worst for the economy and markets.

 

[M.W.]

...which can already be created by ai, art I mean. I bet I could present you with ai generated classical music and paintings that you would he unable to distinguish from human composers and creators. On coding you are probably right, favoring my point: soon enough not just boiler plate code can be autogenerated but entire software applications. The only piece left is the architecting of products and services. How many in our population are gifted and skilled with that?

You sound a bit like this Jordan Peterson guy I highly doubt coding will be a skill in the future. Certainly when most people learn it. It's a language, and a language won't give you a lot of extra 'skill'. Especially when everybody learns it, you need scarcity for something to be of high value. Think lowcode development. It's the added value, which is often more sophisticated which brings the extra dollars, and industries like trade, dominant systems (like dominant currencies) and ultimately art - in it's many manifestations.

 

[PennySnatch]

So... where does the notion of "SPX 1800" come from?
Historically, SP 500 P/Es have been 8x-12x earnings at bear bottoms. (Currently, 18-20x). Latest earnings estimate I've seen is $180. "Times that" by 8 = 1440..... by 12 = 2160. Mid-point ~1800. Just a thought for now.

So what/why is the $180.00 value? Is that an average EPS for the index or something else? Also I like the way you explained why 1800 is not an impossible level.

 

[Scataphagos]

So what/why is the $180.00 value? Is that an average EPS for the index or something else? Also I like the way you explained why 1800 is not an impossible level.

"$180 SPX earnings" is one of the street's forward 2023 estimates. No way to know what multiple the market may attribute to it (or some other value)... just saying it's likely the market is still waaay high priced vs. earnings.

Personally I think the market is waaaay full of "hopium". Big potential risk for long hopefuls, IMV.

 

[PennySnatch]

Ok got it. Thank you.

 

[The_Krakenite]

In case you have slept, chatgpt and its derivatives will within the next two or three years completely displace any and all-

If this catgpt is so smart, how come we don't have a cure for cancer yet?

Let's get a little realistic here...