When do you think SoCal real estate will bottom?

[Port1385]

An honest question SoCal real estate is at 2003-2004 prices at this point.

It looks like a good deal huh...but where are the jobs???

 

[swtrader]

Quote from Port1385:

An honest question SoCal real estate is at 2003-2004 prices at this point.

It looks like a good deal huh...but where are the jobs???

bubble theory suggests that it bottoms at the base where the bubble began. So I'd say about the year 2000 level

real income has DROPPED since 2000, so it may drop even lower

but it will do whatever it's going to do

 

[blackjack007]

the other question is, when will prices return to their peak?

i say 15+ years for the core metro areas and 25+ years for the less desirable, overbuilt, outlying areas.

 

[Clubber Lang]

Quote from blackjack007:

the other question is, when will prices return to their peak?

i say 15+ years for the core metro areas and 25+ years for the less desirable, overbuilt, outlying areas.

I guess alot has to do with the possible tidal wave of inflation next year and the severity and duration of this financial crisis.

I'll guess 8-10 years for core metro and 12-15 years for the out areas.

 

[Happy Hopping]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indus...rtgage-foreclosure_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

have a look at these stupid people:

Jonathan Schecter is set to close next month on the purchase of an apartment in New York City, but it's been an adventure getting there.

He began home-shopping a year ago. Schecter's lender said in September that he could count on 80% financing up to $420,000. The other 20%, or $105,000, would come from Schecter's down payment. But things changed after he committed to buy a place on Manhattan's Lower East Side. The bank said it would finance only $393,000, increasing the down payment he needed by $27,000.

Ian and Laura Salish, both 21, say they were pleased to get a 3%-down payment loan through FHA. They closed this month on a three-story, three-bedroom townhome in Seattle for $319,000.

They had to show proof of employment — Ian is a sales representative for an organic food company, and Laura is a personal assistant — and explain gaps in their job histories. But they're relieved to be getting a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 6%.


Leonard Poteat, 27, a graphic artist in Washington, D.C., is trying to buy his first home and has been looking since June. He's found plenty of affordable homes but also has found that he's competing against investors who are looking to snap up properties and sell them when the housing market rebounds.

He's also finding it difficult to come up with both a down payment and closing costs.

"That's a significant amount to come up with. The typical person doesn't have $15,000 to $20,000," Poteat says.

"I have the down payment, but it's the closing costs I'm still trying to hammer out."

WHAT were they thinking? Have a heard of a foreclosure auction? W/ that kind of money, that's more than enough to BUY an entire house.

For auction like that, I've seen $49,000 for a good house

 

[Port1385]

If they ever will return to their peak.

Quote from blackjack007:

the other question is, when will prices return to their peak?

i say 15+ years for the core metro areas and 25+ years for the less desirable, overbuilt, outlying areas.

 

[domestic]

Quote from blackjack007:

the other question is, when will prices return to their peak?

i say 15+ years for the core metro areas and 25+ years for the less desirable, overbuilt, outlying areas.

home prices were flat from the public start of the s&l crisis for 10 years.

as i traded and as a landlord through that time; i can confidently agree with your post. between unemployment and the excess over the last one; once prices do bottom; they will stay there for a long time. just study the data from that time.

 

[fxtrade]

the peak was last year, the bottom ?? .......not seeing yet !