When do you admit you are wrong?

[zghorner]

Is that right before it goes the other way?

sometimes...lil bit...

 

[rb7]

Trading is not about being right or wrong, or knowing if you're right or wrong.
Trading is about making money. You can make money if you're right, and you can make money if you're wrong (with the right money/risk management).
The goal of trading is to make money, not to be right.
On the other hand, you can be right, but still losing money.
It may sound semantic, but in reality it's not.

But being more pragmatic, if you have a plan at first, then you decide in advance when you'll exit your position (right or wrong, making money or not). You don't need to admit anything. Just follow your plan.

 

[Cabin111]

When my broker margin calls me

I was thinking the same thing!!

 

[.sigma]

How emotionally attached are you to trading? It seems like this board has a problem with losing money. A loss is a loss man, cut it when you know you fucked up and move on to the next. Re-deploy that capital like its nothing, also with my structure a loss isn't even a consideration. I build positions using 10, 20 trades, depending on the environment it takes weeks to build inventory. So out of those 20 I know 5-6 will lose, its apart of the game and inherent mathematical movement of the market.

 

[newwurldmn]

All the experienced options traders seem to agree on the fact that putting hard stops on options is not optimal, and usually you should get out when your view on the underlying changes yada yada yada...

And so we get down to the main question: when do you admit to yourself that you are wrong? When does your view on the underlying change? Personally I think this is one of the most challenging things to do in trading, especially if you are trying to be systematic.

I usually determine a likely distribution curve for the underlying, and if it shifts out of my profit zone by more than a certain % I will get out. Because of this, however, I slapped myself in the face more than once, as the distribution one week later was back again in the profit zone but I had already closed out the spread.

What about you guys? How do you decide that it's time to move on?

Stops are not a bad idea. I put stops on my option trades based on vol levels and pnl levels.

I think it’s counter productive to put stops based on spot levels.

 

[ironchef]

Baozi,

I always use a protective stop loss on any trade. We are traders we can not be 100% right all the time.

Automatic stops are dangerous for options due to wide bid/ask and thin volume.

 

[Baozi]

Stops are not a bad idea. I put stops on my option trades based on vol levels and pnl levels.

I think it’s counterproductive to put stops based on spot levels.

Said from you it's a bit surprising. I thought that all the pro boys ͭ ͫ had a stop embedded in the option spread. Interesting. So you are adjusting stops based on vols? Do you use things like local volatility to model possible worst-case scenarios?

 

[Amun Ra]

You admit you're wrong the minute you start wondering if you were wrong.

 

[zdreg]

Said from you it's a bit surprising. I thought that all the pro boys ͭ ͫ had a stop embedded in the option spread. Interesting. So you are adjusting stops based on vols? Do you use things like local volatility to model possible worst-case scenarios?

The simplest rule is close your position when you have lost half your investment.

 

[zghorner]

You admit you're wrong the minute you start wondering if you were wrong.

I start wondering if I’m wrong before I even place the order...maybe this is a sign to quit for good. Thank you sun god. Hidden light indeed sir!