We go back to fib retracement midpoint of what u have posted here in 2014 just u wait my child.
When do we tank ?
- Thread starter Trader.Fighter
- Start date
One forecast is not adequate sample, no one has 100% accuracy regardless of profitability and consistency.
EDIT: You are also under the assumption that she cannot instantly become bearish due to opening bearish price action and skilled reaction.
The answer is: could be soon, or we can break out and take the bubble to the next level.
The most you can say is that 1) the uptrend is definitely not broken, 2) so far there's no meaningful evidence that price is reacting to the indicated channel or other potentially-bearish technical factors, and 3) there's so far no evidence that general conditions (investor confidence, credit-market stability, corporate earnings, money supply growth, etc.) have shifted to a bearish mode, although there are some provisional warning signs that such a shift may occur in the near future (next 3-6 months).
So, it seems to me the play here is to reduce exposure and/or tighten stops, and develop plans to ride a blowoff move or reload on dips, while keeping an eye out for shot-across-the-bow type warning signs. Likely candidates would be a sharp deterioration in corporate earnings, or a growing defection of previously bullish or neutral investors into the bearish camp. We've already seen the all-in capitulation of prominent bears, but that just means the bull market is in its final stages, not that the top is already in or that a bear market/tank is imminent.
The most you can say is that 1) the uptrend is definitely not broken, 2) so far there's no meaningful evidence that price is reacting to the indicated channel or other potentially-bearish technical factors, and 3) there's so far no evidence that general conditions (investor confidence, credit-market stability, corporate earnings, money supply growth, etc.) have shifted to a bearish mode, although there are some provisional warning signs that such a shift may occur in the near future (next 3-6 months).
So, it seems to me the play here is to reduce exposure and/or tighten stops, and develop plans to ride a blowoff move or reload on dips, while keeping an eye out for shot-across-the-bow type warning signs. Likely candidates would be a sharp deterioration in corporate earnings, or a growing defection of previously bullish or neutral investors into the bearish camp. We've already seen the all-in capitulation of prominent bears, but that just means the bull market is in its final stages, not that the top is already in or that a bear market/tank is imminent.
Haven't read a convincing argument yet, lots of ifs and maybes.
I made no forecast. I said that narrow range consolidation at highs is bullish price action and I also said that none of the price action the past few days is worrisome to bulls (except day traders on the wrong side of intraday price swings).
As a day trader I not only can instantly become bullish or bearish in opposition to an active position, I will occasionally stop out of one position and reverse.
Long term (holding for months or years) traders have no technical reason to flatten a long position in SPY and become bearish here.
On the other hand, swing traders who are currently flat have no reason to initiate a brand new position here without further price action.
You nailed my trading style:
Maybe price will go up. If this, then that.
Maybe price will go down. if this, then that.
The feeling that I'm seeing a convincing argument comes when price is a few ticks away from my profit target.
This market has a while to go. The most it will get is a 10% dip. Buy every dip.
how about now? 
...printed 1/18That steep selloff on 1/13 that busted out lower and then was ignored the next 4 days afetrward, does that worry anyone?
That was no freak accident.:eek:
Kerry that was a good heads up.....however its always hard to figure out the exact timing on things like this.
\yes........