When are you wrong about Bitcoin??

[Pekelo]

What fans are missing is that unless they bought in AT LEAST 12 or so months ago, they already missed the boat. Cryptos stopped being a hedge about 18 months ago, when institutional money (HFs) were able to move in. Once it started and ever since even more Bitcoin (and by proxy most alt coins) is nothing but a high Beta tech stock. And this doesn't seem likely to change!

In this year I recall maybe 3 times when BTC was out of step with the general market and each time only for a few days. Other then that, like a good little puppy, it follows the Nasdaq and goes up and down with it. So expecting a 100% move is only realistic if you also expect NDX going up 50%. Do you?

So if you just want general market exposure, why not just play a market ETF or futures? Then you don't have to worry about Tether, brokers going down, whales dumping, etc.

TL;DR: The show is over, huge growth won't happen and it will take a few years when fans finally realize that. Meltdowns on the other hand....

Personally I think the ATH at 64K is in...I also expect it to dip below 30K in the next 11 months.

 

[VicBee]

Here is a thought experiment, and one that can reveal if you are a healthy skeptic (nothing wrong with that) or a blind/jealous hater ... when are you wrong about bitcoin?

This goes for either side! When are bulls/believers wrong? When are bears / "these are really just beanie baby" people wrong?

Note I'm talking about the long-term here. The chart looks like shit right now, so I'm not talking about what's going to happen like next month.

I'll start. I am a bitcoin bull and believer. I don't think I know everything tho, so I keep an eye out as to when I could be wrong. Here are some things that would change my mind, or at least cause me to go back to the drawing board, about bitcoin.

If...
- Bitcoin breaks below the 2017 highs of around 20k
- Number of new users/holders (measured by wallet address) starts to roll over and decline
- If the amount of $$$ value settled on the network begins to decrease for an extended time (its currently increasing exponentially)
- If there was a significant technical issue. Such as the network being down for a significant period of time, faulty transactions verified, or a true hack of the network (not a hack of a third party such as a broker) such as a 51% attack.
- If another crypto that is TRYING TO DO BITCOIN-LIKE THINGS starts getting a lot of tractions/market cap/users/value settled. Thinking here things like - bitcoin cash, bitcoin sv, zcash, monero, litecoin. NOT coins that have other use cases like Eth, Solana, stable coins, etc
- If its proven Tether is really worth $0 (this wouldn't make me totally give up on bitcoin, but we are in a world of hurt at this point)
- If we start seeing an about-face from the institutions that are in the space. Thinking institutions like Tesla, MSTR, Square, Fidelity, etc. If they change their tune and begin to be anti-bitcoin that is not a great thing
- If the move to SUSTAINABLE mining reverses. This got a big boost after the China ban, they were by far the worst offenders

Those are some things that would change my mind.

Ok now Id love to know what would make the non-coiners on this forum change their mind?

I think healthy skepticism is totally fine, especially for a new technology. HOWEVER, if there is basically nothing that would change your mind then you aren't thinking about this constructively. Emotions have taken over. You don't have an open mind.

So bitcoin haters (or lovers) ... what would make you change your mind? When you would say "I am wrong"?

You're giving pratical reasons to adopt or reject Bitcoin. While I'm invested in BTC and other cryptos for the quick and high returns that failed to be, if I spend anytime thinking about it, the truth is I don't believe in it, particularly after learning more about its intent for some of the rabid believers who are roaming these posts.
I believe in blockchain, I believe BTC could eliminate currency trading and become the gold standard of yesteryears by representing a basket of currencies, but I don't believe in the libertarian anti government currency replacement nonsense. As long as BTC draws on that political ideology it will fail to gain traction.

 

[NoahA]

I think Bitcoin is loved due to its current price in USD. What will an investor prefer between owning BTC (at around $38000 and 50% volatility) or USD (10% volatility and soon receiving short term interest rate above 2% for the first time since 2012)?

With 7-8% inflation, you are still losing. And this is by design. The wealth of most citizens needs to be stolen by the government in order to prop the system up. There is no way for this to continue in any meaningful way for much longer. I am almost certain that a big shock to the system will hit this year.

The hope of course is that enough citizens and officials see the lifenie that Bitcoin is and move over.

Look at the battle over twitter. People who love Elon for what he is doing and also those that hate him are almost equally balanced. The fact that the fight is so strong shows how broken free speech is. This is exactly the same fight over money, a system which is also broken. All of these things are connected and we are in the last inning. People need to wake up, pay attention, and stop ignoring a major fundamental shift that is upon us.

 

[Specterx]

Bitcoin must disappear to let other cryptocurrencies to flourish. The concept of a cryptocurrency is great and supports everything people like us wanted for decades, a way to get rid of the current banking system.

A banking system that is so corrupt that is able to buy entire elections while it is holding deposits from the biggest drug dealers of the world. Pure scum.

We have a great opportunity to change it, and what do we do? we fucking worry about the price of the cryptocurrency in dollars. We will never get anywhere if we keep making another forex market with cryptos, because that is what we have now, a useless cryptoforex market. And guess what? it is promoted by the very single banking system that we are supposed to get rid of. Of course it is, it is a massive goal they have scored on cryptocurrencies.

Show me a cryptocurrency that is not being changed for dollars and creates a completely independent network, one that does not have hedge funds or governments involved and I will believe on it. While the very same parties we want to change are part of the network we have achieved nothing.

Bitcoin is a distraction and I will never stop pointing it out until people get rid of it.

Crypto will never supplant fiat as a generally used currency, for a long list of reasons. One such reason is that every exchange of crypto for something else creates a taxable event, and taxes must be paid in USD - aside from the paperwork and reporting hassles.

It's theoretically possible that governments may make crypto legal tender and remove this problem. However, aside from oddball novelty cases like El Salvador, this will never happen because governments desire full control over their currencies, the income from seigniorage, and the ability to engineer consumer price inflation.

Aside from raw speculation, you're left with crypto as a) a digital version of gold, fulfilling the same portfolio function, and b) access tokens or passes to "walled garden" type online environments, e.g. as in-game currency or the exchange medium for NFT purchases. But the latter will probably never be more than a very niche ecosystem.

 

[johnarb]

As you admit and as xandman wrote, it's so far from ubiquitous . That's the first issue...and the instability as noted by others here. It's basically a speculative trading vehicle at this point and little else.

The strongest reason that I can't get on board is the proselytizing by the addicted and those that are already in. It feels a lot like Amway. Every day, johnarb is posting a new thread (or multiple) about bitcoin with his standard "prolly nothin" caption. If it's so amazing, why do the faithful have to constantly push it and sell it and beat everyone over the head with embracing it? I don't recall anyone here 10 years ago posting daily about how amazing NFLX is and how we all need to stream...or how 25 years ago we should be reminded every day to buy books on this great new AMZN site.

I feel like those pushing it hardest are the most scared it's going tits up and they will lose a ton. You gotta keep the fresh meat coming in to keep it propped up I guess.

Crypto could be the most amazing thing ever and I may have missed the boat, but the constant hard pitch is a big red flag for me.

Stop blaming me for you losing out on life-changing profits 6,500%

 

[ktm]

Stop blaming me for you losing out on life-changing profits 6,500%

View attachment 283621

LOL. Wow...from 2013. Nice find.

Great call though. I do sit around my house going "you know, that anonymous guy on the internet cost me a fortune if only I had...." LMAO.

I hope you made 6,500% and are enjoying it!! Seriously man. I hope it works out for you.

 

[jetbird]

Weekly chart. That bear flag looks nasty. 20K could happen. Would be nice to see some decoupling between stocks and BTC. Can still have high correlation, with a lessor magnitude of move. Long term bull here, expect great things between now and end of 2024, but the path we take is not clear.

 

[maxinger]

It goes up.
It goes down.
It goes sideways.

Absolutely nothing wrong with it.
And the market is always correct.

 

[johnarb]

LOL. Wow...from 2013. Nice find.

Great call though. I do sit around my house going "you know, that anonymous guy on the internet cost me a fortune if only I had...." LMAO.

I hope you made 6,500% and are enjoying it!! Seriously man. I hope it works out for you.

I'm sorry I was not here on ET in 2013

Thank you and I also hope you also did very well and wish you many successes even if it's outside of Bitcoin and cryptos

 

[JackMorgan]

LOL. Wow...from 2013. Nice find.

Great call though. I do sit around my house going "you know, that anonymous guy on the internet cost me a fortune if only I had...." LMAO.

I hope you made 6,500% and are enjoying it!! Seriously man. I hope it works out for you.

Im sure he did

on $10