When are you wrong about Bitcoin??

I came to the realization that currently there is no crypto that could handle being a worldwide currency. The so called Trilemma explains it. Out of the secure-decetralized-scalable problems they can only do 2.

So I will be proved wrong when such crypto comes along, that is stable, fast, min. 10K TXs/sec, scalable, cheap TXs, non-energy wasting, non-deflationary.

Somebody wake me up in a few years or so, when such thing exists... (and I don't want to hear about LN or ETH layers)
 
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I think Bitcoin is loved due to its current price in USD. What will an investor prefer between owning BTC (at around $38000 and 50% volatility) or USD (10% volatility and soon receiving short term interest rate above 2% for the first time since 2012)?
 
GlobalMacro90 said:
Here is a thought experiment, and one that can reveal if you are a healthy skeptic (nothing wrong with that) or a blind/jealous hater ... when are you wrong about bitcoin?

This goes for either side! When are bulls/believers wrong? When are bears / "these are really just beanie baby" people wrong?

Note I'm talking about the long-term here. The chart looks like shit right now, so I'm not talking about what's going to happen like next month.

I'll start. I am a bitcoin bull and believer. I don't think I know everything tho, so I keep an eye out as to when I could be wrong. Here are some things that would change my mind, or at least cause me to go back to the drawing board, about bitcoin.

If...
- Bitcoin breaks below the 2017 highs of around 20k
- Number of new users/holders (measured by wallet address) starts to roll over and decline
- If the amount of $$$ value settled on the network begins to decrease for an extended time (its currently increasing exponentially)
- If there was a significant technical issue. Such as the network being down for a significant period of time, faulty transactions verified, or a true hack of the network (not a hack of a third party such as a broker) such as a 51% attack.
- If another crypto that is TRYING TO DO BITCOIN-LIKE THINGS starts getting a lot of tractions/market cap/users/value settled. Thinking here things like - bitcoin cash, bitcoin sv, zcash, monero, litecoin. NOT coins that have other use cases like Eth, Solana, stable coins, etc
- If its proven Tether is really worth $0 (this wouldn't make me totally give up on bitcoin, but we are in a world of hurt at this point)
- If we start seeing an about-face from the institutions that are in the space. Thinking institutions like Tesla, MSTR, Square, Fidelity, etc. If they change their tune and begin to be anti-bitcoin that is not a great thing
- If the move to SUSTAINABLE mining reverses. This got a big boost after the China ban, they were by far the worst offenders

Those are some things that would change my mind.

Ok now Id love to know what would make the non-coiners on this forum change their mind?

I think healthy skepticism is totally fine, especially for a new technology. HOWEVER, if there is basically nothing that would change your mind then you aren't thinking about this constructively. Emotions have taken over. You don't have an open mind.

So bitcoin haters (or lovers) ... what would make you change your mind? When you would say "I am wrong"?
More...

I'm a crypto bull, but Bitcoin is stupid.
 
Pekelo said:
I came to the realization that currently there is no crypto that could handle being a worldwide currency. The so called Trilemma explains it. Out of the secure-decetralized-scalable problems they can only do 2.

So I will be proved wrong when such crypto comes along, that is stable, fast, min. 10K TXs/sec, scalable, cheap TXs, non-energy wasting, non-deflationary.

Somebody wake me up in a few years or so, when such thing exists... (and I don't want to hear about LN or ETH layers)
More...

So really nothing is going to change your mind ... everybody honestly knew that already. But Ill play I guess

Crypto Trilemma - decentralization, security, and scalability

Bitcoin definitely gets an A+ on decentralization and security. It is certainly the strongest crypto in those 2 areas.

It gets dinged on scalability bc of the well-known speed/transactions per block issue. This is 100% solved tho via a layer 2 like the lightning network. Do you just disregard this because it isn't the base bitcoin blockchain?

Its said a crypto can have 2 of the 3 in the trilemma. Bitcoin PURPOSEFULLY focused on being the best at decentralization and security and not scalability. The plan all along was a layer 2 for scalability/payments.

And make no mistake this was the tradeoff. The whole reason WHY you can only fit a small amount of transaction/block on the base layer is so many can run full nodes (you dont need a super computer) aka increasing the decentralization.

This was a design decision, history so far has said it was the right decision (bitcoin did go from a anonymous white paper worth $0 to a 800BB asset in 12 years).
 
betcashrun said:
I think Bitcoin is loved due to its current price in USD. What will an investor prefer between owning BTC (at around $38000 and 50% volatility) or USD (10% volatility and soon receiving short term interest rate above 2% for the first time since 2012)?
More...

I respectfully disagree with this one. Crypto people (for better or worse) expect way more return than 2%. I don't think 2% is going to dissuade them from investing.
 
GlobalMacro90 said:
So really nothing is going to change your mind
More...

What is wrong with you? That is not what I said. I stated the necessary features of a crypto that aims to be a worldwide currency. When you find one that has those characteristics, I am game.

I also told you not to mention LN, that is shit. It is easier to design a new crypto from scratch than putting extra layers on obsolete ones. I understand your desperation (trying to save BTC), but start from scratch.

And if you don't want BTC to be scalable that is fine, just forget about world dominancy. :)
 
Pekelo said:
What is wrong with you? That is not what I said. I stated the necessary features of a crypto that aims to be a worldwide currency. When you find one that has those characteristics, I am game.

I also told you not to mention LN, that is shit. It is easier to design a new crypto from scratch than putting extra layers on obsolete ones. I understand your desperation (trying to save BTC), but start from scratch.

And if you don't want BTC to be scalable that is fine, just forget about world dominancy. :)
More...

Well I say that because your reason isn’t really a reason. It’s not a tangible thing that can happen, you’re just saying “once a perfect crypto exists in my view” I’ll be in. Cool

So why exactly is lightning shit? And how is it easier to start a new one with no network effects as opposed to using the one that has an $800 billion market cap and millions of network participants?
 
GlobalMacro90 said:
Well I say that because your reason isn’t really a reason. It’s not a tangible thing that can happen, you’re just saying “once a perfect crypto exists in my view” I’ll be in. Cool

So why exactly is lightning shit? And how is it easier to start a new one with no network effects as opposed to using the one that has an $800 billion market cap and millions of network participants?
More...

What is the point of making shitty technologies when you can make if not perfect, but at least better ones? You guys are bitching about Visa, but its network can handle 45K/sec TXs. So why invent something that is not even in the same category?

And stop the BS about anonymity, will you? I don't want anyone to know the content of my wallet. Also, market caps are irrelevant.

The only reason you are sticking with BTC because you are invested in it. I am invested in embracing new and better technologies, forgive me. Read up on the shittiness of LN, by the way.

So no, we don't need shitty cryptos when we already have much better payment networks in place. Now if you want to blackmail someone or launder money, I understand your position. :)

Hey, you asked a question, I gave you an answer. You didn't like my answer, not my fault...
 
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