Wheat

A

ajna

Wheat has been in a free fall the last few weeks. Oddly this coincides with a number of stories in popular magazines about the world's poor being at risk for starvation due to rising wheat prices. Anyone else looking to get long wheat around these levels? 750 looks like an obvious support level.

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you cna get long using a spread and really limit your risk, this harvest is going to be FUCKING HUGE. trust me, but if something happens and we see it get wild they will be scarmbling to get any wheat they can like last year, the march/july chicago spread is an obvious choice. its very very liquid and right now it is 20 cents. It went to 3.00 to the march side last year before getting almost even, you literally could have made your living off that one spread. Its purely specualtive but it's one to think about, buy march sell july. then in about november do the exact opposite and play it down. getting ong wheat or any of these nutty fucking grains can be very expensive if you are wrong, a simple carry spread liek the one i talked about can really limit risk
 
Quote from Rtrader2525:

you cna get long using a spread and really limit your risk, this harvest is going to be FUCKING HUGE. trust me, but if something happens and we see it get wild they will be scarmbling to get any wheat they can like last year, the march/july chicago spread is an obvious choice. its very very liquid and right now it is 20 cents. It went to 3.00 to the march side last year before getting almost even, you literally could have made your living off that one spread. Its purely specualtive but it's one to think about, buy march sell july. then in about november do the exact opposite and play it down. getting ong wheat or any of these nutty fucking grains can be very expensive if you are wrong, a simple carry spread liek the one i talked about can really limit risk
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Umm....where will this HUGE harvest be??? are you talking spring wheat or winter wheat....b/c from what I am seeing (and I'm in the heart of the winter wheat belt)....harvest is looking much much smaller than last year and probably less than average....its been too dry too long. But that is just winter wheat....maybe the spring crop looks better....but I wouldn't count on a "HUGE" harvest just because more acres were planted this year.....IMO
 
Dear traderTX,

Hello from the far away Athens City, Greece.

Propably seems to be from Texas as conclude from the TX letters next to trader.

So, based on that, in the last Crop Progress Report of 27th April 2008, for Texas and for the Winter Wheat Crop,
Texas reported Crop: good/excellent 18% vs 66% with previous Year.

For overall Winter Wheat Crop as of April 27th 2008,
was reported 46% good/excellent, up 1% from last Week.
This compares to 56% last Year and the five Year average of 51%.
Major Hard Red States(Kansas City) compare to the same Week last Year as follows:
Colorado 29% vs 77%, Kansas 45% vs 39%, Nebraska 59% vs 55%, Oklahoma 55% vs 70%, and Texas 18% vs 66%.
Major Soft Red States compare as follows:
Arkansas 44% vs 15%, Illinois 67% vs 25%, Indiana 67% vs 34%, Missour 50% vs 5%, and Ohio 73% vs 36%.
Conditions in three of the five Hard Red States were below last Year.
Conditions in all five of the Soft Red States were above last Year.

Also in the Last Monthly IGC (International Grains Council) Grain Market Report that exist here:

http://www.igc.org.uk/en/gmrsummary/marketreport.aspx

in PDF File,

exist Comments for quite big Wheat Crop this Year.

All that, can answer some of your wonders, i believe for the current situation in Wheat.

Sincerely,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Quote from kanellop:

Dear traderTX,

Hello from the far away Athens City, Greece.

Propably seems to be from Texas as conclude from the TX letters next to trader.

So, based on that, in the last Crop Progress Report of 27th April 2008, for Texas and for the Winter Wheat Crop,
Texas reported Crop: good/excellent 18% vs 66% with previous Year.

For overall Winter Wheat Crop as of April 27th 2008,
was reported 46% good/excellent, up 1% from last Week.
This compares to 56% last Year and the five Year average of 51%.
Major Hard Red States(Kansas City) compare to the same Week last Year as follows:
Colorado 29% vs 77%, Kansas 45% vs 39%, Nebraska 59% vs 55%, Oklahoma 55% vs 70%, and Texas 18% vs 66%.
Major Soft Red States compare as follows:
Arkansas 44% vs 15%, Illinois 67% vs 25%, Indiana 67% vs 34%, Missour 50% vs 5%, and Ohio 73% vs 36%.
Conditions in three of the five Hard Red States were below last Year.
Conditions in all five of the Soft Red States were above last Year.

Also in the Last Monthly IGC (International Grains Council) Grain Market Report that exist here:

http://www.igc.org.uk/en/gmrsummary/marketreport.aspx

in PDF File,

exist Comments for quite big Wheat Crop this Year.

All that, can answer some of your wonders, i believe for the current situation in Wheat.

Sincerely,

George Kanellopoulos.
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George,

Before I began trading I was a farmer....still own the farming operation in fact, just have a manager in place to work, I still make the decisions, but trading is my full time job. With that as a preface let me tell you, all the reports in the world are great but the winter wheat outside of Texas, while doing ok as the report states, is a few dry weeks away from crumbling.....last year it could take a dry May and June b/c of a large soil moisture profile...this year that profile is depleted....the wheat has enough moisture for right now....but no extras...a dry May will crater the crop...but that just my opinion....and I personally do not trade ag commodities as a speculator....just don't want to mix farming and trading I guess.....good to hear everyone's thoughts though....take care!
 
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