Wheat Limit UP again today mon feb 25--25k at bid...get in?

ProfLogic · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from increasenow:

easy overnight short-wheat

I hope you were all in and margined to the teeth.

battle river · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from detective:

If you are going to short, I would short the July 08 and not the May 08. The old crop is like a tinder box that is ignitable on any sniff of a supply squeeze. At least by July, there will be new crop coming in. Still think the risk reward is poor for a short at this point.

could look at dec also. you're right about may,thats just messed up.

increasenow · Feb 25, 2008

still seems to be limit up now at 8:05 Eastern Atlanta time...

RAF618 · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from increasenow:

easy overnight short-wheat

FYI all:

May Wheat ecbot UP 90 CENT LIMIT as I type this.

32 K on the bid.

Are you out of your mind? Short away, you can get the whole 32K bid.

=]

Raf

JamesVU2000 · Feb 25, 2008

yep, crazy

scriabinop23 · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from RAF618:

FYI all:

May Wheat ecbot UP 90 CENT LIMIT as I type this.

32 K on the bid.

Are you out of your mind? Short away, you can get the whole 32K bid.

=]

Raf

If I had 30B in cash, I might take that trade.

ProfLogic · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from scriabinop23:

If I had 30B in cash, I might take that trade.

I wouldn't.
I've been long repeatedly since June and every time this pig tops tons of people say, "It can't go any higher" and it does. Price will continue in one direction until it stops and reverses . . . no sign of that yet.

RAF618 · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from scriabinop23:

If I had 30B in cash, I might take that trade.

Would you really though?

I mean assuming 32,000 Short, you'd be @ 1.6MM/Cent.

One more limit move of 90 and you'd be down 144MM.

144mm/30BB = 4.8% of net worth on one more limit move.

So, roughly $30 Wheat would wipe out your fortune..

Interesting numbers.

What about when you want to cover? A great problem to have I suppose.....!

Maybe Buffet or Gates could take it with their 42 - 50 BB.

=]

Raf

battle river · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from scriabinop23:

If I had 30B in cash, I might take that trade.

except for position limits could be a problem

and if you had the brains to have 30B,would you risk it on wheat?

scriabinop23 · Feb 25, 2008

Quote from ProfLogic:

I wouldn't.
I've been long repeatedly since June and every time this pig tops tons of people say, "It can't go any higher" and it does. Price will continue in one direction until it stops and reverses . . . no sign of that yet.

yea .. much better to buy the dips. practically speaking i'm very fearful of wheat. Every time i've tried to buy the dips, it turns into a bear. But being overlevered is my own error.

in all seriousness, its not practical (to short) because no financially settled contracts are available (to my knowledge), making it a much more difficult market to manipulate.