wheat dec 2012 too high ?

[Gueco]

Does is make any sense how wheat has been participating in this rally ? I mean, there is no shortage of wheat... why not short it outright or put it in a spread against corn ?

 

[ChkitOut]

its an ugly chart, looks really 50/50 up or down. the breakout may or may not fail but i think it will at least have a couple of small legs sideways to down. its in the middle of a big trading range so i think either way its a coin flip.

 

[FrankSlaughtery]

price doesn't have to "make sense". FWIW, there are concerns re potential shortages b/c of the dry weather and that's what's been driving up the ags over the past week.

word to the wise and not to wise - never try to short a runaway move in a commodity - be it oil, ags, whatever - it'll go farther than you ever thought trust me

 

[Gueco]

Quote from FrankSlaughtery:

price doesn't have to "make sense". FWIW, there are concerns re potential shortages b/c of the dry weather and that's what's been driving up the ags over the past week.

word to the wise and not to wise - never try to short a runaway move in a commodity - be it oil, ags, whatever - it'll go farther than you ever thought trust me

those concerns should not affect wheat

 

[ExchangeBonds]

I don't know much about the fundamentals of what is going on but if you are that sure, shorting wheat outright would be the most profitable. If you think the market can be irrational for awhile and want to hedge, do a spread of corn and wheat and then when you see it going your way or have become extremely confident, take the corn hedge off.

 

[Gueco]

Quote from ExchangeBonds:

I don't know much about the fundamentals of what is going on but if you are that sure, shorting wheat outright would be the most profitable. If you think the market can be irrational for awhile and want to hedge, do a spread of corn and wheat and then when you see it going your way or have become extremely confident, take the corn hedge off.

corn and soybeans have low stocks and the current crop yield is at risk due to the hot and dry weather, but that should not affect wheat that is being harvested now

 

[emg]

Quote from Gueco:

Does is make any sense how wheat has been participating in this rally ? I mean, there is no shortage of wheat... why not short it outright or put it in a spread against corn ?

let me give u a hint. Can u define Winter wheat vs spring wheat. start from there and go figure

 

[Gueco]

Quote from emg:

let me give u a hint. Can u define Winter wheat vs spring wheat. start from there and go figure

just tell us what you are thinking

honest question, how big is the spring wheat crop compared to the winter wheat? how could that affect the current stocks compared to the corn situation?

 

[Gueco]

since i posted this the spread went in my favor 35 cents

 

[Gueco]

anyway I dont claim any expertise since I am a total newbie, I am learning about trading grains in a live room at opentrader with a guy named James Meehan, his brokerage record is published there for anyone to see.

he turned 30k into over 300k in 18 months