Wheat curve

I do not know why choose that deep future time Wheat Spread.

Can you explain why go there ?

I watch right now and have positions in the following Wheat Spreads:

1) Long Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) Wheat May 2013,

2) Long Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013.

I watch quite close some FOB Export Wheat Prices and Weather Data and still expected after a little to start buying American Wheat.

Also, expected to filling the Price Gaps in:

a) Soybeans ( 1478 Cents per Bushel ),

b) Corn ( 676 Cents per Bushel ),

c) Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) Wheat ( 815 Cents per Bushel ),

with a way.

Still wonder in my Mind which will be this way.

I give big chances for that to be anything relative to Ethanol Mandate...

Anyway.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Quote from kanellop:

I do not know why choose that deep future time Wheat Spread.

Can you explain why go there ?
More...

Hello George,

I did not understand why there would be such a huge spread between the last months of the 2013 crop and the new july 2014 crop( see the chart on the first page). A huge gap between 2012 and 2013 crop would have made more sense because of the drought. I just thought it would narrow once the market had digested and quantified the drought effect, which it did. I actually got filled at the highest high.:cool:

As you can see it was so illiquid that I just traded 1 lot. Just to see if I was right.
 
Hello Again.

This hour, i decide to put some things here in this EliteTrader Topic.

A little days ago in the regular RJO Futures Bi-Weekly eView Newsletter of 30-10-2012,

Mr Stephen Davis, RJO Futures Senior Trading Broker,

wrote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We have a modest bounce in soybeans this morning after yesterday’s selloff on improved precipitation prospects across Northern Brazil, fears of higher soybean production on the upcoming November soybean report and lastly, just plain liquidation in the face of the East Coast storm. Markets do not like uncertainty and The New York Stock Exchange being closed for two days is "unprecedented uncertainty" and the East Coast Fund longs chose to liquidate soybeans yesterday.
Seasonally, it is the time of year for soybeans to rally into the end of the year and where corn gains on wheat. The November USDA production report is not supposed to have any big surprises. End Users are finding prices lower than what many had expected for this time of the year. The break in soybean prices is being taken advantage of by China who buys cargoes on weakness. The delayed start to the planting season in Brazil is making the period longer where the world will have to buy its soybean supply from the US. It has been too dry in the Northern areas and too wet in the Southern areas of South America. With their current planting season just beginning South America will be planting corn in the dust and hoping that it rains. Yesterday the corn market held up well in the face of soybean liquidation.

In the case of corn, the world went everywhere it could to avoid buying US corn last quarter and in doing so exhausted the world’s alternative feed grain supply. The end result is that cheaper world feed grain has been used up. Unless they can go without corn, they will be back to us. On this thought, small feed grain has been depleted.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

He puts very very correct the South American Weather Situation and also another important aspect:

The World Feed Grain Situation.

The cheap Feed Grains have raise and almost have go to the Price of the Corn.

Now, a little time period ago the Price Gap in Soybeans get filled in the half.

I am a very strong fun of his very serious Axiom that says:

Always, Price Gaps get filled but we do not know the exactly time period that will occurs that.

Now, i had find something a little time period ago relative with the Price Gap in Corn ( 676 Cents per Bushel ).

I believe that the Corn Price Gap of 676 Cents per Bushel will be closed anytime soon.

I believe that,

because of something that i had find from this Article:

http://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-does-your-gas-tank-hold-enough-food-to-feed-22-people/ .

Into there somewhere exist:

________________________________


The EPA is currently accepting public comments on whether to waive the ethanol mandate for next year. By law, a decision is due by Nov. 13.

________________________________

Please, keep this:

A decision is due by Nov. 13.

The day of November 13th, 2012,

it will exist a final Decision.

When happen possibly,

a Waive in the Ethanol Mandate,

on November 13th, 2012,

or a little time before ( I do not know exactly that ),

the Price Gap of 676 Cents per Bushel,

i believe that will be filled.

Remains 11 Days from now to November 13th, 2012.

I expected the Price of Corn to raise a little the last days in the Field of 785 - 795 Cents per Bushel,

for to short the Corn.

But did not happen that.

I am very sceptical to short Corn here.

That's for now...

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Quote from kanellop:



I watch right now and have positions in the following Wheat Spreads:

1) Long Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Chicago Board of Trade ( CBOT ) Wheat May 2013,

2) Long Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ) Wheat May 2013 / Short Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) Wheat May 2013.
More...

doesnt your KCBT wheat cancel out? you're long mgex, short cbot :eek:
 
Hello.

Still, i hold these Positions.

I have them to 2 separate Futures Accounts for the exactly reason that you mention...

Today, my Number 2) Wheat Spread does not close so well.

Kansas City Wheat looks very strong.

The last days, i put some more Positions in my Number 2) Wheat Spread,

because of this first:

http://www.mgex.com/documents/102312.pdf ,

-----

We continue to
feel that MWH-KWH and MWK-KWK in the mid to low 20’s offer substantial value given the pace of
export sales and the large fund long in KW and small fund long in MW.

-----

and second:

http://www.mgex.com/documents/103012.pdf ,

-----

We still like MH/KH and/or
MK/KK in the mid to low 20’s.

-----

My Stop Loss is in 0 Pips.

I hope to do not go there...

I want a lot the World to start to get American Wheat.

Also, i am in readiness for the Minneapolis Wheat July 2013.

I have a target ( Possibly after the close of some Price Gaps in Corn, Soybeans and Chicago Wheat ) to get in to it.

Of course, i will need a lot of study for the Wheat Situation around some big producing Countries the coming time period.

Anyway.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Hello Again to All.

After some News that i read yesterday and today,

i decide to add some things to this Topic again.

First, i want to tell something for my Number 2) Wheat Spread that hold,

meaning Long Minneapolis May 2013 / Short Kansas City May 2013.

That Spread is in the low 20's now.

I consider it to how can drop.

Some positive things for it,

possibly exist to the Wheat Report of 2th November 2012 from Benson Quinn Commodities Inc.,

and Brian Henry.

It is here:

-----

Wheat futures posted a relatively uneventful trade compared to the weakness experienced in the row crop markets. Profit taking on earlier strength seemed to be a factor overnight and again late in the session. Similar to the other markets, wheat did find resistance from a higher US dollar and generally weaker tone in the broad commodity spectrum. However, the primary factor was weakness in the corn market. Wheat actually posted higher trade as corn and soybeans posted modest recoveries on the Informa estimate. But, it wasn’t to be as bids backed off in the row crop markets the appetite to chase wheat higher also backed off. I felt the KC market was bid fairly well throughout the session. There was keavy buying in the KC market on the close, which allowed all three markets to come well off of their lows. Volume in the wheat market was not real impressive, which has typically been the case of late.

Besides continued dry conditions in the southern plains, the wheat market doesn’t have much of a tangible supportive story. The trade continues to anticipate increased export activity, which at times has kept these markets from rolling over. Weekly wheat export sales were a rather mundane 362,900 mt. Weekly wheat export sales remain well behind what’s needed to meet the USDA’s export expectations. We will see an increase in US wheat export activity once spread values adjust enough to allow it to happen. Due to the narrowing window to increase US wheat export, I am not convinced that potential sales are ever going to increase enough on soft wheat to trigger any major supply concerns. The quality aspects of the HRW crop should result in a decent export being established into the first of the year. Spring wheat sales remain adequate with fairly steady demand showing up from the Pac Rim. However, besides the rather modest pace of Canadian wheat exports, their best alternative at this point is the domestic US market.

From a technical standpoint, the wheat market isn’t offering much. If corn and soybeans remain under pressure, a test of the low side of the range is in order. Hedge pressure remains light and funds are probably carrying too much length in KC.

-----

Now, in the last Price Perceptions Report ( # 1469 ) of CIS Company:

http://www.cis-okc.com/ ,

i read some things relative to Corn, Soybeans and Wheat.

Seems that USDA, possibly, will raise again the U.S.A Soybeans Production.

Also, the Yield ( Bushels per Acre ) for U.S.A Soybeans based in the CIS Company,

will raise and will go to the Field of:

38.4 Bushels per Acre.

This thing generate me a very contrary thought in my mind,

which i want to tell it.

As i believed until now,

if exist a Price Gap Fill in the Price of Corn especially,

then will follow together the Filling and in the other Price Gaps,

in Soybeans ( 1478 Cents per Bushel ),

and Chicago Wheat ( 800.75 Cents per Bushel ).

I have start to believe that can exist very close from now,

possibly after a little from the release of the 9th November 2012 USDA Report,

the close of Price Gap in Soybeans without to exist the Filling in Price Gaps of Corn and Chicago Wheat.

For Corn,

the things are very difficult.

The Waive in the Ethanol Mandate is a "Weapon" for to drop the Price of Corn.

Possibly, exist a chance,

to does not exist a Waive in the Ethanol Mandate,

from now and until November 13th, 2012.

In that Case,

i believe that Corn will hit again the 800 Cents per Bushel.

For Wheat, i have to say that based in the things that read in the Price Perceptions Report ( # 1469 ),

the U.S.A Wheat Exports must skyrocket the coming time period.

Here, i want to add something that must put it to other Sector of the EliteTrader Site...!

I have find a very interesting Internet Site,

that provide something very important for free.

FOB Export Prices of many places of the World for many Grains.

It is here:

http://hammersmithltd.blogspot.gr/ .

Exist past Archives, too.

With these things i will stop here.

Best Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Hello Again to All.

I decide to add something now here,

which badly from my self i didn't put it yesterday.

I wonder,

if must put it here,

but finally now get my decission to add it.

Yesterday, early Morning Hours ( With U.S.A Eastern Time ),

i send the following E-Mail Message to Mr Donald Keeney of MDA Federal:

-----

Dear Donald,

Good Morning.

I hope and wish to be well.

This hour, i decide to contact with you because i have detect from here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ,

this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png .

Seems that it will exist big speed Winds that can affect maybe,

the Wheat Plantations that have not receive any good Precipation.

Now, when i search some things today here:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/forecasts.html ,

and then here:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/nam5.00hr.png ,

i see there to exist mention for 200mb Streamlines and Isotachs ( m/s ).

The ( m/s ) do you believe that means Meters / Per Second Speed ?

Respectfully Yours,

George Kanellopoulos.

-----

His Answer was:

-----

Yes, the m/s means meters per second.

-----

I do not know how many U.S.A Wheat Areas affected from this Phenomenon,

but even this tiny detail have their importancy.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Hello Again.

The recent time period,

i decided to make a research relative with something that makes me to wonder a lot.

India & China.

India, seems that have Wheat Stocks 43.15 Million Tonnes which looks quite mythical number in my eyes.

Also, the recent time period Iran with the serious problems that have with their Nuclear Program and problems in their Wheat Production,

try to buy Wheat Quantities for several reasons.

One Country that try to make a Deal with,

is India.

The Major Problem with India Wheat seems that is a Fungal Disease,

named Karnal Bunt:

http://articles.economictimes.india...est-wheat-producer-quality-wheat-wheat-stocks .

Now, the India Wheat seems that is quite cheap with other Destinations,

around 314.12 USD per Tonne:

http://www.brecorder.com/world/glob...-at-31412-tonnes-in-wheat-export-tender-.html .

Now, let me go to China.

Here comes a quite important Story relative to China.

Exist into a USDA Report:

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent GAI...ng_China - Peoples Republic of_10-29-2012.pdf ,

some things relative with China Wheat.

Seems that something is not going there well.

Also into this PDF File,

exist for the Marketing Year of 2012-2013,

which begins in July 2012,

as says this Report,

a drop to the Ending Stocks,

from 54966000 Tonnes to 47447000 Tonnes,

meaning a drop of:

7519000 Tonnes.

But an Article relative with this matter comes from here:

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/china-wheat-crop-estimate-10m-tonnes-overstated--5175.html .

Also, the recent time period China bought Wheat from Canada and stealthy Rice.

For Rice,

i find it in an Article with Topic:

China's stealthy shake-up of the rice market,

in the Inside Agriculture Report of Thomson Reuters of 30th October 2012,

were exist:

"...The hefty tonnages involved (more than 1.8 million metric tons as of the end of September, and forecast to top 2 million by year-end)..."

The mysterious to me continues with,

why China does not buy the cheaper India Wheat and gone and buys the Canadian Wheat ?

Fear any troubles in the Quality of India Wheat ?

Now, the recent time period and based in these Articles:

a) http://www.agrimoney.com/news/drought-hit-us-winter-wheat-to-extend-dismal-start--5179.html ,

b) http://www.agrimoney.com/marketrepo...efies-markets-post-election-tumble--1866.html ,

seems that exist serious troubles for the Wheat.

Also, today i have detect and this Article:

http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-...s-selling-wheat-aggressively-into-cash-market ,

which answers maybe,

why today 07th November 2012,

exist possibly a big drop in the Spread of:

Long Minneapolis Wheat May 2013 / Short Kansas City Wheat May 2013.

But into this Article exist something for China...!

It is this:

"...Driedger said it’s evident that export demand for Canadian wheat is strong,

as there were recent reports that China was on the buying end of a big sale.

He also said there is some talk in the market that China may still be looking to purchase more Canadian wheat. ..."

With these News,

i will stop here.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Hi Guys,

Wheat you think of the fly old crop - New crop <K-N3 > and N3-Z3...
It seems that the fly moving north.
currently the K-N broke the 23-0 and N-Z @ -14-4 with a resistance -13-0..


What do you think?
 

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