Wheat curve

Hello Again.

For the Day 11th September 2012,

i have again collect some News.

For Wheat exist:

1) http://www.agrimoney.com/news/australia-ups-wheat-export-idea-even-as-crop-wilts--4970.html

2) http://www.agrimoney.com/news/egypt-deal-shows-russian-wheat-exports-running-dry--4975.html

3) http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-ukragroconsult/news-bsg/argentina-floods-cause-farmland-disaster

4) Ukraine Ag Ministry early today says month wheat exports will fall sharply Nov/Dec as quotas

designed to keep stable domestic bread prices are triggered.

5) From the Today's, 11th September 2012, Afternoon Recap Report of Arlan Suderman,

http://farmprogress.com/wallaces-farmer/story.aspx/afternoon-recap-arlan-suderman-22-30795 ,

i will keep the:

This is the type of year where one would expect fence row to fence row planting of winter wheat in the Plains belt if a rain falls to assure emergence. Yet, there are many tens of thousands of acres in the region that were double-cropped to soybeans in the wheat stubble. The soybeans finally responded to late showers to emerge from the stubble, but few fields will produce. However, there is too much green to burn the stubble and too much stubble to replant to wheat. A few are trying to bale the stubble and bean growth to remove it, but in the end the scenario will limit wheat acres.

For Corn exist:

1) From the Today's, 11th September 2012, Corn Report of Benson-Quinn Commodities, Inc.,

http://www.bqci.com/accept.htm ,

i will keep the:

Aflatoxin will continue to be an area of interest in this year’s crop. Cases are being reported early as elevators and processors are actively testing new crop samples. There is hope that the earlier crop was affected more than the late crop, but that may be a dream of the end user. Reports indicate that some elevators/users are rejecting at 15ppb and some samples are testing as high as 100ppm or greater. The size and scope of the toxin remains and unknown, however this will warrant continued consideration from the trade.

2) From these News:

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/soybean-condition-revival-offers-glimmer-of-hope--4971.html ,

i will keep the:

Aflatoxin 'problem' Paragraph.

For Soybeans exist:

(Bloomberg) -- Due to lack of rains this week and next in Brazilian soy planting areas. Brazil

soy plantation to face favorable weather conditions during season. Brazil soy areas may

have rains mainly after 2nd half of Oct.

For Rice exist:

1) http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-...-careful-with-china-deals-rice-exporters-told

2) http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-...rice-export-target-in-2012-despite-challenges

Some General News:

(Bloomberg) -- China has more than 250 million metric tons of grain inventory, the highest

ever, Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speech at a World Economic Forum event in Tianjin today.

Some General Weather important News for the Northern Plains, Northwest Midwest and Canadian Prairies,

exist to this Story:

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc38fe7cec0139b6662a44075a .

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
do you have an opinion on how the possible alphatoxin problem will affect dec-march corn spread? I would think this is bullish for the spread which now trades at a 4 cent carry.
 
Hello.

I do not know the extension of the problem in this USA Crop Year.

Right now exist a harvest pace there with a Rate of 15% - 17% already.

Who can knows the extension of this problem to the remaining of 85% - 83% of the other Corn Crop.

Also, which will be learn the problem better first ?

Elevators Businessmen and Companies,

that have the ability to examine better with samples that problem rather than me or others.

How will react these that will learn it first that,

is another case.

If suppose that must fulfill Corn deliveries with Contracts already signed,

in time periods that get in the Elevators Corn with bigger number of Aflatoxin, how will react ?

After all these,

i can not make comments in a problem that i do not know it very well.

My most first Focus,

will be the today Announcement from the FED about a possibly QE3 in the time of 13:15 ( U.S.A Eastern Time ).

That Announcement can affect a lot the Price of Grains.

If does not exist a QE3 right now ( Which this finally believe ),

the Price of the Grains will drop with my small opinion.

Now, i believe that even the USDA October Report will be clear for this Year Corn Catastophy.

Still, i believe that this Year Corn Production is less than 110 Bushels per Acre.

Also, i have many wonders for the USDA Corn Animal Feed Use Number.

I believe that this Number must raise a lot,

because,

a) other cheap alternatives for Animal Feed,

like,

Sorghum, Hay and Alfalfa Hay,

their Prices have raise a lot.

b) many Pastures had burn from this Year Drought.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
I believe the risk/reward potential makes this an opportunity worth considering at least (even though as you say, we will be the last to know if there are problems with toxins). I belive the -4 is the key support and if it doesn't hold then we could end up as 1988 and perhaps go as low as -8 if not lower.
 
Hello.

I hope and i wish to be well.

Seems that didn't predict at all,

the new move from the side of FED.

I am very dissapointed for that.

Now, seems that the People of FED and who knows,

which others,

want to "drop" the Value of USD against the Euro.

That move will help for more Exports for Grains from the Side of USA.

Yesterday and still now remain neutral to direct positions in Grains.

I am of course impressive from the raise of Wheat the recent days.

Anyway.

Good Luck to All.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
I agree, it was a losing trade for me, and I lost 1 tick. In other news, I think we are witnessing funds reducing length in Dec soybean meal. I am selling it and buying soybean oil against it.

788 is a key resistance area in dec corn.
 
Hello.

This hour that i write these small words,

i am very skeptical.

The major reason for that, is,

a little time ago i receive a Weekly Technical Update Report from the CIS Company that i am a subscriber.

Into there exist many Charts,

but impress me the Chart for December 2012 CBOT Corn.

Give a potential target of 875 Cents per Bushel...!

USA right now is in the harvest period,

and i wonder,

to how can be a raise in the Corn Price,

before the 65% - 75% of the Corn Crop harvested.

For Wheat, i will not speak because "suffer" only to think it...

Many Countries have troubles which,

it is something well known,

but even to this Price Area,

it is above than difficult someone to be a speculative Buyer.

The only things that i have to Wheat,

are Spread Positions.

For Soybeans,

i have to say, that,

if this Year Crop in Brazil ( Especially ),

confront any troubles,

the 2000 Cents per Bushel will be a "funny" Price Target.

Soybean Meal, i do not follow it.

So, i do not have any opinion to it.

Soybean Oil, i find it very interesting and i watch it from time to time.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
The problem here is that there is no room for logistical problems
in SA / late harvest / etc and any shift of even a small amount of business back to the US in the second half of the marketing year!!
Can Brazil and Argentina take care of the entire world’s soy needs by themselves in March-August? I am skeptical.

I think understanding soybean meal and soybean oil is paramount. I keep a separate database calculating the Chinese crushing margins using the Dalian futures exchange data.

Though I believe now the considerable managed money length in the soybean complex is a major factor in day to day trade, and in the short-term we might continue to see long liquidation. In the long term, I think the rationing job ahead is unprecedented!
 
Hello Again.

I am around here and have read some regular News from a Greek Internet News Site.

Still to read many Agricultural News of the Day ( I am lucky that coming the Weekend... ).

The major reason is,

that i feel quite dissapointed the last 2 days from the things that happened in the Markets.

The first "hit" was the FED QE3 Announcement.

The second "hit" was some Weather Factors relative to Southern Plains, Russia and Ukraine Precipitation.

I study a lot for that kind of Condition there.

Right now, my basically Weather Informations coming from NOAA, especially.

I do not have any paid Subscription for that tremendous important Issue to any Private Company.

I know almost all the serious Private Companies that do that kind of special Job.

Possibly, the very best have it one,

the GEOSYS : http://www.geosys.com/ ,

with the Product named: AgriQuest.

In the past, i had contact with a Person there, Mr Pierre Rolland,

asking for more things.

The Major Issue is,

that the Subscription there Cost a lot of Money.

Mythical Amounts.

It is not possible even to think it, that.

Also, i keep a Contact with Mr Donald Keeney from MDA Federal.

But, seems that this Company too,

can not provide me Valuable Weather Data in the way that i want it.

It is a very big Story the Informations about Weather alone.

Of course here exist and another very important Factor.

Does not mean that,

if someone knows an Information/s before others,

have the guarantee of Success.

A very important Adage says:

Markets they can trade illogically longer than you can stay liquid.

Now, for the Soybean Oil.

I try to see it from the aspect of Spread between Palm Oil of Malaysia and Soybean Oil of CBOT.

Exist Palm Oil Futures Contracts of Malaysia into the CME Group.

But have wide Bid and Ask.

It is not possible to trade them, then.

So, i see from time to time and very little,

the Soybean Oil alone.

By the way, i make very little trading in the Soybeans Sector.

For the Logistical Problems that you make mention,

exist here an Article that kindly sent me my Contact Person in RJO Futures on 7th September 2012.

Here it is: http://www.greenfield-group.co.uk/s...out.html?goback=.gde_2066773_member_160219761 .

Still, i am very sceptical with the CBOT Corn and the USA Classes of Wheat,

into CBOT, Kansas City Board of Trade ( KCBT ) and Minneapolis Grain Exchange ( MGEX ).

Anyway.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
Hello Again, jtmalu.

I decide this hour to write some things here.

Now, the first thing that make quite well this weekend was to sleep for some more hours and then to calm.

This weekend, i have consider a lot the Issue of CBOT Corn,

because of the CIS Company Technical Chart that got.

When i received it and saw it,

i combined it with Fundamental Factors.

Now, for the things that i watch,

i have keep the following:

Into the CIS Company Technical Charts Update,

exist the Chart of December 2012 CBOT Wheat.

For that,

exist a possible drop to the Area of 905 - 895 Cents per Bushel and a possible raise to the Area of 990 -1025 Cents per Bushel.

Now, come in my mind the following fundamentals for Wheat:

In the Southern Plains as i see the Weather Data from here:

http://water.weather.gov/precip/ ,

didn't drop so much Precipitation the recent days,

as predict it here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml ,

a little days ago.

Now, exist something else.

My Contact Person in the RJO Futures,

sent me some Grains Informations the recent time period in daily basis.

Now, in a Report of 12th September 2012 from the Commodities Weather Group ( CWG ),

inside there exist a Topic with the Name:

Assessing FSU Winter Wheat Establishment.

Into there was exist, that,

about 10% of the FSU Crop is too dry for proper germination and early growth of Winter Wheat but that could increase to as much as of 45% of the Ukraine and 30% of Russia if Rains are not received in the next 2 weeks time frame.

Now, that is a Rare Information.

Very fast try to find my Free Resources of Weather Data for to make a look.

My best Recourses for that Case comes from:

1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ ,

( Then: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/casia/casia.shtml , Precip ),

2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/map_viewer/cpcgis.swf , ( With quite confusing Weather Data with other NOAA Places ),

3) http://vega.smislab.ru/en/ ,

( http://vega.smislab.ru/en/maps/ ,

then go to the Topic: In the Upper Left Page, Meteo,

and after choose in the Middle Left Page into the Isolines the:

Accumulated Precipitation, kg/m2 ).

The VEGA Service is a Russian Source Service.

By the way,

in the past i had contact with them for to put in their Service some more Weather Data,

but seems that didn't listen me...

Now, as i have check the things there,

of course together from the Words of Commodities Weather Group ( CWG ) Report,

i do not have see a good Precipitation until now.

Now, if exist a threat in the coming Winter Wheat Crop of Ukraine and Russia then will happen "crazy" things in the Grains Markets...

Also, exist and the Wheat Issue of Australia that need straightway Rains.

After all these,

conclude that exist a serious chance to raise the Wheat at least for now.

That can have the effect to "pull" the CBOT Corn up.

After examine what News exist from the Side of Ethanol Mandate.

I find these:

1) http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/on-energy/2012/09/13/obama-should-waive-the-ethanol-mandate ,

2) http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/9111/rfs-waiver-comment-period-extended-15-days-to-oct-11 .

Then, i say to my self that possibly until the October 11th, 2012,

will be not a Major Threat from the Ethanol Mandate Issue.

And then think that possibly will be a very contrary and opposite to the logic thought,

to raise the Corn to a harvest time period...

And then conclude,

that possibly this a nice reason for a raise in the CBOT Corn Price the coming time period.

By the Way, for Soybeans as i have check some small News by my side,

does not exist something very significant to the well known situation right now.

After all these,

i decide to reopen my Long CBOT Corn December 2012 Positions to the Price Area of 777.75 Cents per Bushel a little time ago,

with a first Price target 849 Cents per Bushel.

By the way,

my basic idea for the close of the Price Gap of 676 Cents per Bushel in CBOT Corn remains intact.

I do not know,

what do you believe...

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
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