What's Your trading plan if markets keep selling?

KCalhoun

KCalhoun

Just curious, how are you going to trade if selling accelerates this week?

I'm going to focus on day and swing trading TVIX SRTY FAZ SPXS etc.

It'll be interesting to see if we get back to March lows by summer. Fwiw I went mostly cash into eod today to book profits in most inverses, strong 2day moves, may get adverse gap tomorrow -- cash is king.
 
Last edited:
This bounce is similar to March 2000.

  • After an initial sell-off the market bounced back, almost to the top.
  • But a 2nd wave of selling caused the market to crash below the previous low.
  • In this case the low was about 6900 for the Nasdaq.
  • Will the Nasdaq drop 2,000 points soon?

The March 2000 market punished those that didn't bail when they had the chance.
 
Just focus on the stockcharts. Individual stocks move independently, of the market indices. People assume say, if the DJIA or SPY or SPX or QQQ is down, their stocks will also, be down. Nothing could be further from the truth. You have stocks going up even in a huge market selloff. Other stocks selling off during huge market rallies as well. Good trading should be simple and boring. Look at today's trading. Okay, most of my holdings are down. Some, down larger than others, one hit a stop loss and sold. No biggie. Inspite of that, CODX closed at $23.42, up $6.43, I entered this trade at $12.2073. Still in it. Yesterday, I sold NVAX calls that I had bought 4 days prior for 388%. Not every trade is going to be a winner but, you get enough winners and large enough, you should do okay.
 
Last edited:
Selling must accelerate here to really get this going. So far we've had a ton of dip buying . Es right now is 36 off the lows of regular hr's. I'm concerned about the massive negativity and everyone so certain were going to crater . I can tell by the action there's a crap load of people shorting as the few rally's we got today were very quick and the downside is slow and grindy . Trend is down but i'll only short on nice pops
 
I opened a LT position in $CCL today. I hedged by shorting $RCL. we might go down a bit more or a lot more. I plan on flipping any $RCL short profits into buying more $CCL and think $CCL won't wipe me out in BK proceedings and will be fully-booked in 2 years. I suppose I could have just sold puts, but I don't have any time frame for how long this economic mess lasts or what the stock market will be like in 2 months.
 
Keeps selling off??

As much as I want to say this market will sell off, but keep selling off? Hard to say. We literally saw the fed throw trillions at the market and the Government hand out more trillions to people unemployed and stimulus checks. They are looking to spend another $3 trillion to help the economy in the next few weeks. They will stop at absolutely nothing...i can almost guarantee that the next great collapse, which will most likely be do to a delayed opening of the economy that the fed will literally buy stocks directly and knock rates down negative. I can almost predict some crazy things they will do that we would never imagine. They probably have a long list of ideas to stop any collapse from further happening that at a seconds notice they can turn this market up on just a few crazy ideas you never thought possible ....
 
m1nt said:
I opened a LT position in $CCL today. I hedged by shorting $RCL. we might go down a bit more or a lot more. I plan on flipping any $RCL short profits into buying more $CCL and think $CCL won't wipe me out in BK proceedings and will be fully-booked in 2 years. I suppose I could have just sold puts, but I don't have any time frame for how long this economic mess lasts or what the stock market will be like in 2 months.
More...

Smart idea re hedging like that, I never thought of that play (or could do UAL vs DAL etc). I'm trying to figure out similar play with ETFs like SQQQ/TQQQ ..key is scaling into winner correctly... good idea
 
smallfil said:
Just focus on the stockcharts. Individual stocks move independently, of the market indices. People assume say, if the DJIA or SPY or SPX or QQQ is down, their stocks will also, be down. Nothing could be further from the truth. You have stocks going up even in a huge market selloff. Other stocks selling off during huge market rallies as well. Good trading should be simple and boring. Look at today's trading. Okay, most of my holdings are down. Some, down larger than others, one hit a stop loss and sold. No biggie. Inspite of that, CODX closed at $23.42, up $6.43, I entered this trade at $12.2073. Still in it. Yesterday, I sold NVAX calls that I had bought 4 days prior for 388%. Not every trade is going to be a winner but, you get enough winners and large enough, you should do okay.
More...


Right re outliers like CODX, wtg I missed it... nice afterhours action too. .. exciting into the close!
 
hafez50 said:
Selling must accelerate here to really get this going. So far we've had a ton of dip buying . Es right now is 36 off the lows of regular hr's. I'm concerned about the massive negativity and everyone so certain were going to crater . I can tell by the action there's a crap load of people shorting as the few rally's we got today were very quick and the downside is slow and grindy . Trend is down but i'll only short on nice pops
More...

Good point re slow strong grind, headfake early before noon... after 2 strong down days I'm thinking small bounce or chop tomorrow, so I'm mostly cash .... will re-enter inverses if they take out new highs after 10.

You've got a smart way of looking at the market. I'm going to focus on following VIX & TRIN even more than usual, eg bearish TRIN > 1.5 kept me in inverses to book decent profits today
 
Buy more.

Nothing else makes sense. Timing the market is a fool's errand. I'll take my 20% a year and be pretty happy with myself. There's no signal that will tell you when Trump tweets something stupid or the market panics over the rona. I don't make enough to trade professionally so I can't react instantly to such lunacy.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top