basis, two ways to view this... first you have do agree on definitions.. this is a vague statement, hardly scientific in that it is not 100% clear what the author is talking about... It has a mystical quality designed to make people curious about the wisdom of the person who said it... very calculated.. My guess is, the author wants followers to be mystified by him, he does not want to be clear and relate to people as equals..
ok but regardless.. I guess everyone you know has had their retirement plan meet their objectives.. You never met anyone who carefully picked mutual funds, then, ended up picking a portfolio of stinkers... You never new anyone who happened to graduate from school, just as the market for the skills they are selling employers falls through the floor.
A key failure of this statement is that it does not take into account randomness. It does not take into account that many try in almost any elite or difficult field, but the majority by nessesity fail. not all can be a pop star, but alot are out there, doing the clubs, auditions, etc.. and u know most will never get what they want.
Gee, its funny, but i know plenty of such people... I know alot of successful people too, people who truely do and are living the way they want and "getting what they want" out of the markets and other things, but that is not the majority.
If you are looking for some type of logical airtight refutation of the statement... I suggest you consult a text on logic... It is impossible to refute an arbitrary claim. Only well defined statements, a proper hypothesis, can be refuted with logic and observation..
Now, I believe that I can refute the claim simply by knowing many who have seen their retirement plan underperform their wishes..
Names that, well, would mean nothing to you... but my guess is, u can think of such individuals as well, your own personal examples..
If u think that is somehow not adequate.. well, then your pet statement is arbitrary, has no specific meaning, and cant be refuted. it is a mystical stament, it served its purpose well, and continues to do so.