What's worse than a stock crash?

M

marketsurfer

We are starting to get indications that something far worse and damaging than a stock market crash will soon occur. I am not talking about economic damage but rather irreputable harm to the financial business.

What we are seeing signals of is a coming decade long flat cycle in the stockmarket. Stocks simply will go flat turning the financisl business into a mere shawdow of its former self as there will be no more interest in active trading.

It happened in the 1970's. It will happen again.

surf
 
Can you tell us more? US markets or global? What are your signals based on? What are the causes? What leads you to that time frame??
 
Yes, and Livermore alluded to the same thing between 1908 and 1915 as well as between 1933 and his suicide when SEC regulatory framework was created.....
 
I'd rather own a flat business that at least has a chance of making money than loaning it out where it is almost guaranteed I will get paid back interest in dollars that are worth much less than when I loaned them out. Talk about a bubble, just buy dollars. They are going up. DX is at 97 and could easily go to 107. Or, you can do like Warren, good times or bad, just buy a shoe store. Everybody needs shoes.
 
marketsurfer said:
We are starting to get indications that something far worse and damaging than a stock market crash will soon occur. I am not talking about economic damage but rather irreputable harm to the financial business.

What we are seeing signals of is a coming decade long flat cycle in the stockmarket. Stocks simply will go flat turning the financisl business into a mere shawdow of its former self as there will be no more interest in active trading.

It happened in the 1970's. It will happen again.

surf
More...

We're already in the midst of it...Think back to 1999-00 and how much interest (retail) there was in discussing stocks. By the mid 2000's, a small percentage of those people had any interest...by the late 2000's whatever interest was left basically disappeared with the second crash in less than a decade...Fast forward 7 years later (ZIRP and low volatility) and there isn't even a fraction of the same interest in the stock market as 15 years ago...Sure there are a handful of "momo" stocks that draw some interest, but it's mostly a show and the liquidity is abysmal (hence the demand for hft).

I think you are right that it will get worse, but not because it's ABOUT to happen...I simply believe that it's a continuation of something that started more than a decade ago.
 
there is an asset class that nobody talks about anymore. They call it "cash". It pays about .01% in what we all hope soon to be a 2% inflation environment. But...you can only lose what the Federal Reserve can steal from you.
 
It's really a testament to the lobbying power of Wall St. that 7 years of ZIRP has been implemented and there is minimal backlash...Dare I say it's almost become "rate normalcy" as this point...Here we are hanging on the "possible" raise of 25 bp in September and it's inconceivable that rates could ever top 1.00...Just let that sink in..as Bernanke said "no rate normalcy in my lifetime"...
 
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