What's with all the ask size showing on the Euro futures???

I can assure you this, it was not a bank or buy-side trader, it was a very large local messing around. Only a handful of traders use techniques like that to push the market.
 
I can't believe I was away today. Are you guys saying that you saw 20,000 (thousand) appearing in the ask column?

In looking at the volume over the range, it is a little unusual to me. The volume of 209,000 contracts (a fairly big day) was spread over the range proportionately. Short covering or new buying?
 
It was showing over 30K offered at some points, with 11k on the inside. After the size was taken off the offer it shot up like a rocket (6k showing on the bid then). Volume charts really highlight the chaos nicely.

Four times in a row I put in a limit sell order at the high of the day when the market was 10-15 ticks below, and in a flash I would get filled and then the market would instantly be back down to where it had been one second before (cover and refresh my sell order at the high). Crazy.
 
Quote from mcurto:

I can assure you this, it was not a bank or buy-side trader, it was a very large local messing around. Only a handful of traders use techniques like that to push the market.
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These Blast points... too accurate for Sand People, only Imperial Stormtroopers are so precise.


Just goofing, mcurto. I appreciate your on-the-ground perspective and the daily newsletter (but I just saw Star Wars again last week).


Regards,
 
Here is my opinion of what happened. A large local was probably long thousands (maybe 5000, who knows) contracts and decided to offer some size to see if there were any takers, there were offers of 9000 and about 18000 a couple ticks off the market below 1.1900, can't remember exact prices, I think 1.1897 or so. It looked like they started taking the first offers for a couple hundred or so, then he pulled them and still being long decided to just bid it another 30 ticks and screw the smaller locals that were probably leaning on his offers, then they started to cover on the way up, with some very big size an 1861 lot and I think a 600 lot trading somewhere between 1.1920 and 1.1930.
 
You don't think someone was pushing down the market to cover a short, reversed, and then manufactured a short squeeze by pulling out the cork and going on the bid?
 
That is also a possiblity. But it seems a little too risky to offer that much size if you are short, unless they are that crazy and possibly willing to get short another 30,000 if their offers are lifted by the Goldman desk or some enormous FICC desk. It seems to me that most smaller locals would have been squeezed because they love to lean on size in most markets, but who knows, your scenario does seem very plausible as well, and probably makes more sense.
 
Quote from mcurto:

But it seems a little too risky to offer that much size if you are short, unless they are that crazy and possibly willing to get short another 30,000 if their offers are lifted by the Goldman desk or some enormous FICC desk.
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Maybe with the holiday they were banking on London going home early and a thin U.S. market. It looked like open-handed intimidation.

I was just thinking about Occam's Razor in regard to another thread, so I suppose I could remove the short covering and reversal from my theory and just go with a manufactured short squeeze. Hopefully we'll learn the story next week.

Have a great weekend.


Regards,
 
Where are you all finding order information? I would be very interested in having access to order sizes, where the orders are placed, etc.

Can you help?

Also, what in the world is going on with the EUR/USD? All of the fundamental data suggests the pair should be moving south. Of course with recent interest rate hikes, indicators suggesting future hikes.....possibly past March, PPI, and other strong fundamentals fro the USD.

Today, Friday, 2/17/06, I really expected the EUR to lose value against the dollar. To my surprise, the pair rallied! I expected to see the EUR below 1.1880 long before now. Currently, it is at about 1.1930 or so and no signs of falling.

Any ideas from some of you more experienced traders? I would welcome your input.

Thanks,

Golflyer
 
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