While I think I’ve got a handle on the mechanics of BTC and how it could potentially replace fiat, the existence of alt coins makes me start leaning towards the “crypto is a scam” camp. Will alt coins coexist with BTC? Or are they in direct competition to be the ONE decentralized currency that makes it to adoption?
What’s the need for alt coins?
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yes I think so, but most are going to 0. This really isn’t any different than individual stocks. Most of them go to zero as well.
Here’s how I look at it
The money/store of value used case is pretty much sewn up. I don’t see anyone seriously challenging bitcoin here, competitors if you want to call them that would be bitcoin cash, Z cash, light coin, etc. But again I don’t really view them as serious competitors and as time goes on it’s very obvious who is gonna win in this category.
stable coins is another one and the need for this is off the charts. Leaders here are tether, USDC, pax dollar etc. if you were in the US I think using USDC is the safest thing to do. If you need a stable coin, I understand tether is used throughout most of the world, but as has been beaten to death on this forum there are questions around tether. Stable coins are not investments and should not be thought of as such.
Platform tokens will have a place. Eth is number 1 here followed by solana. I would be very hesitant to go beyond that.
defi is another category. It’s interesting but has a long way to go. Aave and UNI swap would be the “blue chips” here. In My mind these are extremely risky punts. We still have no idea how the government is going to regulate defi for example.
Utility and exchange tokens like BNB, in my view, have no reason to exist and shouldn’t be touched
Should go without saying, but meme coins like Dogecoin obviously has no reason to exist either
To me if you want exposure to crypto I don’t think you should overthink it. Buy bitcoin and you’ll be 98% of the way there don’t believe people that say bitcoin is worse tech or anything like that they know nothing about this it’s very obvious.
I only own BTC. I was just saying that the existence of over 25,000 other cryptocurrencies is something that weakens the case for BTC being a long term asset. Thanks for pointing out the platform coins like ETH. I hadn’t thought about it before but is this kind of like casino chips? Like you would buy ETH to use the platform and then later cash out the balance?
I’ve been trying to find a good documentary that explains this stuff but I haven’t found anything that does a good job. There’s the ones done by mainstream media who don’t have a clue and interview real oddball people. There’s the ones that are like listening to a screaming red faced Baptist preacher at a revival, at the end all he said was to BTC or you’ll regret it. Then there’s the YouTube channels that just make stuff up. I’ve seen 2024 BTC predictions ranging from 50k all the way to 700k.
A quick google search tells me that currently 0.11% of the world’s money supply has been converted to BTC. I really don’t know what to think of that. I’m now wondering what percentage of that is held in large chunks and not buy small holders.
If you're just calculating market cap, that's not a valid statistic at all. See also the case of the $100 million deli
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...i-decried-by-einhorn-draws-sec-suit#xj4y7vzkg
A market cap is more of a theoretical number, not the amount that has been paid into something.
Cryptocurrency is suckerbait. It sounds like you are starting to realize this based on the existence of all the alt coins.
The simple fact is they're all backed by nothing and they entitle you to a future claim on nothing. People are buying not based on a sober and rational financial analysis, but based on a maniacal desire to get rich.
There have been many schemes like this throughout human history. This one will end like the others.
It takes a special kind of delusion to say bitcoin objectively the best investment of the decade, is a suckers bet. You are just making up stories to make yourself feel better.
and market cap is certainly a valid statistic. Not the only one you need, but a valid one.
and market cap is certainly a valid statistic. Not the only one you need, but a valid one.
I didn’t do any calculating. I searched "how much of all money is in bitcoin" and this is what came up. Market cap is the amount of the asset multiplied by current market price, isn't it? I mean what if I bought some gold in 2000 for $500? Would I have to only value it at that price on a balance sheet today? I get it that BTC could be at 15K (or lower) overnight and the 0.11% would instantly change to 0.05% or something like that, but using any other number is really just making things up. What figure would you use?
I agree with you that it's sucker bait but I'm starting to think that there's a lot more suckers who will get pulled in before this implodes. You can't deny the returns up until now, I mean I've been a doubter the whole time. It's a religious movement and I think it's got a ways to go before it's over.
It's two years old now but Mikhala Peterson had an "opposing views" podcast for bitcoin. The pro-btc guy was Robert Breedlove and the against-btc guy was Peter Schiff. Breedlove was like a preacher at a revival repeating "I believe! I believe! I believe!" without offering any rationale other than fiat isn't backed by anything either. Schiff had an intelligent and rational argument against it that I agree with. I'm still buying some.
With the events coming up like the halving and BlackRocks ETF approval I want to be exposed to it. I'm currently converting some of my portfolio to BTC even though I think it's a gigantic decentralized ponzi scheme. My rough plan is to have 5% of my portfolio in BTC by the end of the month and stop there. If it tanks, I'll survive. If it goes to the moon like all the fanatics say it will.....I will convert it back to other assets when it grows to more than 25% of my portfolio. So, a 5x return. I know I know; I'm talking about a 5x return like it's nothing and even likely, but have you looked at the past performance of this stuff? Larry Fink will soon be telling people to buy this stuff. Jurrian Timmer just came out of the closet as a bitcoin bull and will likely buy into Finks ETF when its available. Every monkey on TV and YouTube is talking about it as if it's a REAL ASSET whether they are a bullish or bearish. I believe that people are sheep and do what they are told, and right now they're being told to by this crap. Yes I am a sheep and could get sheered but I am scheming to skedaddle when the opportunity arises!
1. No you don't.
2. Now you are getting it.
3. They have been, right from the beginning. LTC is 12 years old (and better than BTC)
4. There is no ONE decentralized currency and there shouldn't be just one. After all, this is capitalism where competition is encouraged.
With competition there should be better products (BCH, BSV, LTC, all better than BTC) and cheaper prices. >>>> in the long term there should be no price increase, except for hype.
Market cap on it's own is valid but using it the way it was in this thread is not. Other wise there would have been $100 million dollars paid for a deli.
the fact that sometimes assets get overvalued doesn’t make market cap mean nothing
If they are better tho why does nobody use them? And why are they worth small fractions on bitcoin? You are the only one smart enough to see this? Or just maybe you are missing something?