Crude back in the 20's seems far fetched. Wasn't it shutdown when it reached those levels? Also there was the Saudi Russia issue at the time. I believe the lowest Brent went was about 16, even when WTI was negative (is that right? that's what my chart is showing for Brent front month, please correct me if I'm mistaken). US is not eager to shut down because it has major economic implications. China and some other countries made good progress, so it's hard to imagine that the world will totally shut down again. Wearing face masks appears to have a significant impact on the virus spread, but people haven't even been following those basic guidelines so I think there are paths for improvement, choices that can be made. Already we're seeing mask requirements. There is a good chance the kinks are being worked out and the rise of covid numbers are going to be reduced significantly. It reminds me of a hand injury where one is eager to start back up and does it too quickly, in the process injuring the hand again, or something that is a work in progress and being figured out and understood, but to go to those low price level seem unlikely.
Some kind of war with Iran is not far fetched. Trump is behind on the polls, and from what Bolton reported, which was likely accurate, Trump will try to do whatever he can to get reelected. It's not going to be rational or ethical, but that's who we're dealing with. In my opinion we're dealing with a Hitler like mentality. I think it's roughly 25% chance of some kind of war before the election, 50% might be too high on second thought, but 5% is way too low.
