sfjan, have enjoyed reading your posts. i for one, however, don't agree with your risk/reward formula for deciding to pursue 'trading'. you integrate time into your risk metric in the form of 'opportunity cost' and assume a high value. this is not very objective and not very becoming of a good PM (i kid)! with time properly factored out and applying frequency to the equation instead, one can easily come to a very different conclusion: assuming reasonable numbers for frequency (6mos - 1yr) , probability (whatever low %), risk (2500-10k), and reward (crazy high number)... it's not all that 'dumb' of a bet. in my own case, i started with a 2.5 bone wad and now that amount is what my tick fluctuations can look like. i didn't do it in the first 6 mos - yr, but by that time i had a pretty good idea of what i was capable of.
also, hate to say it, but you come off like your pinky is quite high in the air. you're sincere and intelligent though, so it does make it palatable enough, even pleasant. however, if you decide to come down from your 'first tier/buy-side/insti' horse and try slumming it for a bit, you might have better luck analyzing the signal to noise ratio on this board and maybe some of your limiting beliefs about the markets in general. agreed, insightful posts are rare, but to make the claim no one here makes any real money is being a bit thick. there are, without question, some talented guys who frequent this site who make a lot of money doing some pretty non-trivial stuff. stuff like, i don't know, exploiting inefficiencies in the most liquid assets?... because why trade, if you can't move some money around.
also, hate to say it, but you come off like your pinky is quite high in the air. you're sincere and intelligent though, so it does make it palatable enough, even pleasant. however, if you decide to come down from your 'first tier/buy-side/insti' horse and try slumming it for a bit, you might have better luck analyzing the signal to noise ratio on this board and maybe some of your limiting beliefs about the markets in general. agreed, insightful posts are rare, but to make the claim no one here makes any real money is being a bit thick. there are, without question, some talented guys who frequent this site who make a lot of money doing some pretty non-trivial stuff. stuff like, i don't know, exploiting inefficiencies in the most liquid assets?... because why trade, if you can't move some money around.