What's The Best Way To Convert This Edge Into Money?

[bwolinsky]

There is not enough edge in this to be taken seriously OP.

Comparing to the trades I see over a 2.5 year period.

Avg Win is $1,360 vs $650 avg loss on 81 trades , 55% win percentage yields $467 per trade, amongst the highest in the world in the corn market. (All intraday trades out before the open).



I include a high commission of $24 approximately with 2 ticks per side per contract in corn and a 55% win percentage. These wins will no doubt not be enough to cover your overhead. Your avg win ratio isn't high enough nor is the amount of slippage accurate as those markets will slip even beyond that.

Ignoring the calls for more trades, there needn't be, but if you figure a 62% win percent and factor in the avg win loss we have 60*.62-45*.38=$20 you are only talking about roughly $1k as has been mentioned and this isn't adequate return to justify any risk being taken on the strategy.

Oh, and, one more thing, I'm betting drawdown is greater than the net return, so you wouldn't use it even then.

 

[gmst]

Edge or no edge - I think that is not the matter here.

The guy claims he earns 200k per year and his salary increased from 80k to 200k over last 3 years. And then he says he has only 13k - fine believable, maybe he ran into medical expenses or blew his money in his trading or on hookers ....tats all fine.

My problem is why OP can't save 50k over next 4 months from his salary? If he has medical expenses still with him, he anyways won't be able to trade as he won't be able to focus given all the things going in his life. Successful trading requires utmost concentration and a very supportive life. If he is under a lot of stress, successful trading aint gonna happen.

So, finally I have concluded that the story given here in this thread is incomplete and misleading and doesn't deserve much attention.

Seems Maverick74 was right in his first post he made on this thread that this aint gonna happen, although I don't agree with the logic that 53 trades is a very low sample in all the cases, not talking about scalping . Consider if this guy had been taking weekly trades or swing trades lasting 2-3 days, 53 days would make for a very decent sample size in that case. Anyways.......enough said......

 

[stock777]

almost as mysterious as why Jack Hershey doesn't own everything west of the Mississippi.

 

[SplawnDarts]

Quote from doublet83:

Can you explain again why there are only 53 trades in this sample?

Because that's what I chose to provide.

The question is NOT whether the edge is real. The question is, given the nature of the edge, how best to exploit it.

 

[SplawnDarts]

Quote from gmst:


Seems Maverick74 was right in his first post he made on this thread that this aint gonna happen, although I don't agree with the logic that 53 trades is a very low sample in all the cases, not talking about scalping . Consider if this guy had been taking weekly trades or swing trades lasting 2-3 days, 53 days would make for a very decent sample size in that case. Anyways.......enough said......

There is no statistical difference between talking about a population of 53 scalping trades and 53 swing trades. It's just a sample.

 

[Stockie]

Quote from stock777:

almost as mysterious as why Jack Hershey doesn't own everything west of the Mississippi.

This sort of operation doesn't come cheap...

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from SplawnDarts:

Because that's what I chose to provide.

The question is NOT whether the edge is real. The question is, given the nature of the edge, how best to exploit it.

If for profits, don't worry, they're miniscule, if, for a following, good luck with that!

 

[Took2Summit]

Quote from SplawnDarts:

There is no statistical difference between talking about a population of 53 scalping trades and 53 swing trades. It's just a sample.

I played sit n gos professionally online for about 18 months. I would play 25-30 at a time (yes it's a lot of clicking) and play 200-300 a day. I would literally have WEEKS of losing streaks. 500-1000 (each game averaged about 75 hands, that's 75,000 hands of losing streak) game losing streaks were not uncommon. Yet over the year I had a 14% ROI. I could literally go 53 games in a row and brick them all or finish in the money in 40 of them. don't know how you could ever ever possibly think 53 is anywhere near a good sample. When I would move from $15 to $25 buyin or $25 to $35 buyin I would literally play 10,000 (750,000 hands) games before I decided whether I had an edge in the game or not.

 

[newwurldmn]

Get a job at citadel.

 

[SplawnDarts]

Quote from Took2Summit:

I played sit n gos professionally online for about 18 months. I would play 25-30 at a time (yes it's a lot of clicking) and play 200-300 a day. I would literally have WEEKS of losing streaks. 500-1000 (each game averaged about 75 hands, that's 75,000 hands of losing streak) game losing streaks were not uncommon. Yet over the year I had a 14% ROI. I could literally go 53 games in a row and brick them all or finish in the money in 40 of them. don't know how you could ever ever possibly think 53 is anywhere near a good sample. When I would move from $15 to $25 buyin or $25 to $35 buyin I would literally play 10,000 (750,000 hands) games before I decided whether I had an edge in the game or not.

The reason you could have such long losing streaks is that your PF was only in the 1.3 range or so (depending on the ratio of 1st, 2nd and 3rd places). This has a PF over 2 - totally different ballgame.