Quote from SplawnDarts:
I have an good edge in scalping certain futures - ES and CL for certain and it's probably portable to GC. It doesn't appear to work in the rate complex. Theory suggests it might work in other places, but I don't know for sure.
The basic nature of the edge is a custom coded indicator I would describe as "automated tape reading". The actual entry and exit decisions are discretionary but don't involve much real discretion - just things like knowing when news releases are. Automation is a possibility. I'm a good programmer and could do it myself.
Here's the last ten trading days' stats - they're pretty representative and are from trading a 1 lot on IB:
Wins 33
Losses 20
Total Trades 53
Win Rate 62%
Avg. Win $62.39
Avg. Loss $43.64
Profit Factor 2.36
Aprox. Confidence Method > Break Even 99.8%
Commissions are included in the win and loss size stats.
Those stats are a mix of long and short CL and ES trades. The splits don't look radically different except the CL trades have slightly larger wins and losses than ES (no surprise there). Losses on any given trade are limited by in-the-market stops to ~$150+commission with slippage. Wins are bounded at $150-commission for CL and $125-commission for ES. Holding time is <10 minutes so liquidity might very well be a problem if traded on big size. Overall both the quantity and quality of trades has been improving with time and I could see the PF going as high as 3 and my number of trades doubling as my execution improves.
So here's my question: how do I best make money out of this and maximize the chance I'm set up for life? I'm ~30 years old. I've got an engineering job that pays about $200K+benefits, and I would lose a small amount of non-vested stock if I quit. Job outlook is stable to positive, but I don't really love it. I don't have to quit to trade (I currently trade mornings before going to work) but could probably find more trades if I didn't have to go in. I live in a mid-priced suburban area far away from major financial centers. I don't want to move for family reasons.
So what's the best way to proceed? Should I just trade my own capital? I could allocate about $13K right now, and quite a bit more over the next year. Or should I try to take this to a prop shop or some other institutional environment? As it stands now with a retail brokerage there's zero chance of anyone stealing my approach, but I would be concerned about it in other settings.