Since we do not know what the price will be tomorrow, so we try to predict it was past data. The saying goes... the market always repeat itself. So we employ various strategies using past data to predict the future price which is what back test essentially is. With the power of modern PC, it's not difficult to test various strategy from simple to very complex ones. I look at daily charts every day and all seem random. Occasionally, I see one or two that trend... ah ha... I jump it. Sometimes, after I jumped in and the trend broke the very next day. It is just a bet after all. You win some and you lose some. Hopefully, you win more than lose. We just have to accept that the market will be the final judge.
I build homes for a living. That is not random. I know the costs going in, and I know what the house should sell for assuming there's no downturn in the market while I'm building.
And the market would have to crash about 30% before I break even.
I can't do anything that is like gambling. I need to find out if there's a way to increase odds because with the high leverage, there are good returns to be made.