Quote from spindr0:
Direction is the main course. IV is gravy.
If you can reasonably predict a trading range, the most bang for the buck comes from the underlying or long options. The UL will give you $ for $ when right (or wrong).
Long options have lower delta, time decay and potential IV issues. Since you indicated an ability to forecast IV, then delta and decay are your adversaries. In return you get leverage so if your UL move is decent, you have leverage.
Anything involving short legs to hedge (vertcals, butterflies, condors, etc.) is going to have a limiting feature thereby reducing your already sub 1.00 delta gains even further. The tradeoff is that if dead wrong, the loss is less.
Ok interesting. I think I'll just experiment with some one lots for a few months and see how they act, probably a better way to get a feel for it.