Whats that, chance of fed hike (sept) falls to 36% and whats that? Dec chance falls to 85%

Feds jawboned the market all the way up. On new highs they talk rate increases. On sell offs talk dovish. Fed balance sheet and ir determine where this market goes. If and when the fed actually begins to hike rates and shrinks balance sheet, that's it. Game over. Until then it's all just noise and conjecture.
 
I'll add the fed balance sheet topped a few months ago and in the past six weeks saw a marginal decline. This explains the recent toppy market and current sell off
 
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