Whats that, chance of fed hike (sept) falls to 36% and whats that? Dec chance falls to 85%

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S2007S

Whats that????

Whats that????

ohhhhhhhhhhhh

yep the sound of no interest rate hikes in september, and now that 100% chance in december has dropped now to 85%, yes 85% which means now its not even a 100% chance the fed is going to raise even thought they said they were.....this has gotten so fucking repetitive it has become actually pointless to even waste time even hinting at when they will even consider raising rates. the fed is losing all credibility, remember that, its just lies and more lies, they have no clue when they are going to raise rates and to hear them even hint at a possibility of raising them in december has me laughing like a child, hahahah.....



Probability of Fed rate hike in Sept. falls to 36% after Fed minutes: RBS
CNBC.com staff | @CNBC
21 Mins AgoBreaking News

The likelihood of an interest rate hike in September fell after Wednesday's release of the latest Fed minutes, RBS said.

Based on its calculations, RBS said the futures market was pricing a 36 percent chance of a September hike after the minutes.

The forecast had been 45 percent prior to the minutes. The CME Group's FedWatch tool, which is updated daily, had also shown a 45 percent chance of a rate hike next month.

RBS also said traders were now estimating an 85 percent chance of a rate hike in December. It had been 100 percent before the minutes' release.

Do you think the Fed will raise rates in September?
Yes

25%

No

75%

Total Votes: 342
Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.
 
NOW A DAY LATER ITS DOWN to 24%%%% for a rate hike in September...down from 45% yesterday afternoon, and now Decembers rate hike chances which should be at 100% because the fed said loudly and clearly it was raising rates by then is now down to 59%. What a fucking game this all is, that it now comes down to probabilities of when the fed is going to hike, I don't recall a time in the past 10,20,30,40 years where wall street played this fucking pathetic probability game of when the fed was going to hike rates, the fed just did what they wanted back in the day, today its all make believe games, enough of this fucking dribble, this market is so backwards that the fed doesn't even have a fucking clue when they are going to raise, can't wait to see yellen on capitol hill trying to answer questions on why they kept rates low for as long as they did while pumping trillions of worthless dollars into this failing economy.......

CME traders cut September Fed rate hike chance to 24 percent
Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom


The Fed rate hike derby keeps getting more and more intense.

A growing consensus of market experts—particularly economists and strategists—believe the Federal Reserve will increase rates in September for the first time since 2006. Traders in fed futures, though, tell a different story.

Probability for a move next month plunged to 24 percent Thursday as gauged by the CME's FedWatch barometer. That's off from 45 percent the day before and reflective of sentiment after the minutes of the Fed's July meeting hit the tape Wednesday. (Tweet This) Central bank officials appeared torn between hiking and staying put as they praised the strength of the job market but worried over persistently low inflation.

Read MoreFed 'approaching' hike, not there yet: Minutes

October's chances for a hike plummeted from nearly 50 percent to 32 percent, while December went from about 73 percent to 59 percent.

Overnight indexed swap rates also argue against a rate rise, with traders assigning a 32 percent chance to such a move even after positive economic data Thursday.

But hold on: The consensus is far from settled. Multiple Wall Street experts continue to think the Fed will move in September, with some contending one factor is simply a desire to get it out of the way and stop the endless back-and-forth debate.

102911759-GettyImages-483581356.530x298.jpg

Getty Images
Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
"The economy is improving, inflation isn't falling, the Fed wants to begin normalizing monetary conditions and the policy tools are all in place," David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. "It looks more and more like September will see the first move up (since) 2006."

Citigroup, meanwhile, professed to find a "smoking gun"—as it titled a research note—in the minutes that also led it to believe the Fed will go in September.

And Bank of America Merrill Lynch is sticking to its call—for not one but two rate hikes before year's end.

Read MoreFed may have just gotten a red light for rate hike

"Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking," Michael Hartnett, BofAML's chief investment strategist, said in a note to clients. "We think that is increasingly likely in September, thus arguing that risk takers should soon look to add risk, particularly on any further weakness."

Traders were in no mood to buy on weakness Thursday, though, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.2 percent in morning trading and turning negative for the year.
 
Myself I simply considered the fundamentals and put on positions expecting this (long euro, long gold) around 2 weeks ago. Turns out it worked out well for me.

There's no way they'll raise in the near term. Most likely cornered at this point.
 
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