What's possible with limit orders?

[nwoptions]

Hi everyone, I'm interested in scalping BIL and SGOV. Both ETFs have relatively predictable price patterns.

The current asking price of BIL is 91.64. Today's trading volume is over 9.8 million shares.

Can any of the scalpers here please tell me how likely it would be for my order to get filled if I entered a limit order to buy at, say, 91.61? Or is that price too far apart from the asking price to get filled?

Thanks

 

[SunTrader]

Size (number of shares), time of day order is entered and how long you are willing to leave order open matter - if price moves away initially all determine whether it will be filled or not.

 

[ph1l]

The current asking price of BIL is 91.64.
...
how likely it would be for my order to get filled if I entered a limit order to buy at, say, 91.61? Or is that price too far apart from the asking price to get filled?

From Yahoo Finance, I downloaded historical data for BIL for the past year (20220614 through 20230614), adjusted the prices for dividends, and calculated some statistics on the daily high minus the daily low:

numValues       252
min             0.00968600000000208
max             0.0298779999999965
mean            0.0148616666666669
sampleStdDev    0.00595705986064142
q1              0.0098119999999966
q3              0.0195215000000033
median          0.00996199999999448
medianAbsDev    0.000262999999996795
skewness        0.744154051298893
excessKurtosis  -0.407249750211424

The largest difference was about 3 cents, so a day limit order 3 cents below the current price probably wouldn't get filled to often.

 

[M.W.]

Perplexed what you are trying to achieve with that analysis. First of all, the market does not care about last year. Currenty daily range sits at around 2 cents. That is all there is to know. Queue priority is generally key in such names but does not really matter here because 1 cent on 90 bucks is a little more than a single basis point. Even the spread for large high value tech stocks is larger. No issue crossing the spread. It's impossible to scalp names like this. The only guys who might possibly beat vwap are specialized brokers with algorithms that add volume to the queue very early on, there even is huge competition in terms of latency to battle for queue priority in such names.


That's all there is to say.

From Yahoo Finance, I downloaded historical data for BIL for the past year (20220614 through 20230614), adjusted the prices for dividends, and calculated some statistics on the daily high minus the daily low:

numValues       252
min             0.00968600000000208
max             0.0298779999999965
mean            0.0148616666666669
sampleStdDev    0.00595705986064142
q1              0.0098119999999966
q3              0.0195215000000033
median          0.00996199999999448
medianAbsDev    0.000262999999996795
skewness        0.744154051298893
excessKurtosis  -0.407249750211424

The largest difference was about 3 cents, so a day limit order 3 cents below the current price probably wouldn't get filled to often.

 

[Sekiyo]

Hi everyone, I'm interested in scalping BIL and SGOV. Both ETFs have relatively predictable price patterns.

If price patterns are predictable then you know what’s the likelihood of your limit order to be filled at this specific price.

Depends on the average mean - variance of the immediate rotations.

I have no clue about your instruments.

 

[murray t turtle]

If price patterns are predictable then you know what’s the likelihood of your limit order to be filled at this specific price.

Depends on the average mean - variance of the immediate rotations.

I have no clue about your instruments.

%%
I do;
have a clue.
That chart of his question looks like gov Cr%p.
Does NOT look like much prediction, or much move.
On a more positive bottom line, tryin to make 2pennies on $90makes slightly mores sense than lose 2 or 22cents on $00.90 bioteck stock