What's Holding This Market Up?

dozu888 said:
no we know about the bubble lol... real estate value in the 4 biggest cities is higher than the entire USA.. that's why I said per a calculation on the napkin, the real exchange rate is about 1USD = 20RMB is free exchange is allowed to happen.

massive debt bubble, massive liquidity trap in China, real estate value thru the roof, literally.

but all that is contained, the RMB can not free flow....

by the way this is the key difference between a reserve currency like the USD and the one that is not, like the RMB.... imagine if RMB were the world reserve currency, all the stuff China printed... then whatever you saved in the bank would suffer like a 70% hair cut lol.

that's what the trade war is all about... world dominance, reserve currency.

volume - thinning is a GOOD thing!

https://stockmarketobservations.fil...chology-of-the-stock-market-by-g-c-selden.pdf

here is a free gift for you - it describes how a bull market is born, gets mature, and dies... and the death is caused by increased float, or bigger volume lol (conventional wisdom TA can go to hell on this one saying a rally needs big volume to be legit).

I hold lots of stuff long term and I actually watch average volume and I WANT the volume to be thin... because that means my pro boys have good chip control and they are still in the process of marking up the price... I'd start to get cautious when the volume start to get active, my boys float out a lot of shares for speculators to toss around, and household participation gets high... that when a bull is close to death!
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Bulls don’t die they just fade away....
 
dozu888 said:
Sharp rebound is a feature of the bear. Shorts cover in panic.

But that’s not the key feature. A real bear market needs overvalued assets with very crowded public participation. Neither is present at the moment

I posted earlier in this thread. Find me another asset class high quality like the sp500 and yielding 5.x%. You won’t find anything close

Household with stock market participation is low compare to historical average.

Checking account balance at all time high. Corporate cash at all time high.

Now you tell me what’s holding it up.
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I don't know about corporate cash but I know corporate debt is at all time high, and budget deficit is at all time high when not in recession and growing higher, and US would be in recession if not government deficit
and all that debt needs buyers
and that 5% yield is a mirage as you see it only in corporate earning reports but not in your pocket
divs are lower than 2% - and that's exactly what S&P earns for me
 
kashirin said:
I don't know about corporate cash but I know corporate debt is at all time high, and budget deficit is at all time high when not in recession and growing higher, and US would be in recession if not government deficit
and all that debt needs buyers
and that 5% yield is a mirage as you see it only in corporate earning reports but not in your pocket
divs are lower than 2% - and that's exactly what S&P earns for me
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money is so cheap that is why debt and cash are both at all time highs... no brainer to borrow at 3.x% to buy something earning 5.x% lol.

5.x% is real.. the trend is favoring buy-backs instead of divs due to the tax defer.
 
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