What's been going on with Amazon all year?
- Thread starter RGLD
- Start date
The present value of a security equals the sum of all future cash flows, discounted by it's wacc.
As the expectations of future cash flows rise (driven by increases in revenue, ebitda, or eps growth) the stock price will rise. Last Q results drove pretty large downward revisions to revenue (greenline), which the stock tends to follow (there's been a stable 0.7+ correlation on this relationship since the end of July).
I see, so from what I can gather is the good news has already been baked into the stock price - so much so that they never shot their projections and had to tone it down. That's crazy since the stock moved up last year. So this entire year of beating earnings is just to justify the previous year's over zealous move. Unless Amazon really blow out earnings next week, it probably won't be reaching any new highs than.
I think the fed is driving up the prices pre-maturely and the earnings are just to justify it being there.
Also might I say, you have an amazing Post:Like ratio. Highest I've seen on this site.
Is it a good time to buy? Can't say I'm a big fan of Amazon though
There is absolutely nothing wrong with it.
The market is always correct.
So don't try to prove it wrong.
Whether they are killing it or not killing it on earnings,
Whether they are ahead or behind on something else,
the market will do what it wants to do.
It moved 1.5 years ago. Now it is taking a rest.
Those who bought it earlier are probably laughing all the way to the bank.
those who bought it now might not be able to laugh at all.
1.5 years difference can make a huge difference.
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There are a few AMZN followers in here who might want to give their point of view.
l like the company and trade it from time to time, but it's not for the faint of hearts with deep swings between 3k and 3.7k, often with little justification other than the big fish uncanny timing of their profit taking.
From my very limited 2 years tracking the stock, I have found that Q results have little impact on stock price and stock has been lateral for over 12 months with the wild swings noted above that can be quite profitable if timed properly.
In general, 3200 and below is a buy and anything above 3500 is a sell but not an advice.. blah, blah.
Not those that bought this year though.. Also I don't know - A lot of tech went up, AMZN's gains are nothing special.
I have spotify I bought in 2020 really outpaced Amazon. I don't own enough for it to be life changing though.
Right, AMZN would need to not just surprise but also raise guidance for the stock to really begin to rally.
what does the fed have to do with it?
haha thank you
If you bought TSLA in January 2020 you'd be wondering why all the excitement because you'd be up $8 or even down for the year... timing is everything
Actually I have a thread about it.. I bought Tesla when it was pretty low this year so I enjoyed the move. Again, I don't own any amount of life changing shares. I will be selling it and getting a PS5 this Christmas (if I have enough )